Welcome to the DFS Army NHL Game Break!! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I’m your buddy @Choppodong and you can find me on both Twitter and YouTube with supplemental commentary and teaching. But, you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic hockey maneuvers across all our main sports. If you are looking for it, we cover it! Follow me, watch me, interact with me, I welcome it all.
NHL DFS Matchup Rankings L10 Games
Last 10 games sample size. Home teams in white, away in gray. GF = Goals For, GA = Goals Against. MU Score is a combined metric showing how one matchup tonight compares to the others on paper. Green is good, red is bad. We are looking for the best matchups of teams scoring goals facing teams allowing goals. Not exactly rocket science, so don’t overthink it.
My plan is to describe the games some and drop quality players in these lists. You will get my player pool (VIPs might get bonus plays in our coaching forums later). My cash players are those I would happily use in head-to-head formats, 5050 contests, small leagues, and even some larger leagues. They will anchor my lineups in all formats and contain a lot of value plays and/or punts. The core gets you to the dance. The slightly funky plays off your core push you into the gpp money. Your core is everything! Even gpp-only players need a core of solid production to build from.
Montreal Canadiens @ Toronto Maple Leafs
Odds – TOR -180, 6 o/u leaning hard on the over right now…
Montreal head into tonight’s slate 4-4 in their L8 games with a 4-game losing streak bookened by consecutive wins on either side. They aren’t doing anything special as a team right now, and TOR has limited the goals against fairly well for long enough it tempers my excitement on the Canadiens. The usual suspects are Gallagher and Weber. The rest become a large heap of crapshoot. You are going to need to take some chances here, though, because Vegas is shifting this line to the “over” tonight suggesting there will be scoring on both sides.
Goalie – $9000 on FD and $7300 on DK is a bit steep for the situation. Carey Price has been ok lately, but in the not-too-recent past we saw a very mediocre stretch from him. I’m not into countering a higher powered Leafs squad with a middling goalie that is charging premium prices.
5 star plays – Gallagher (W)
4 star plays – Domi (C), Weber (D)
Cash gamers – Domi (C), Tatar (W)
GPP Sleeper – anything possible on 4 game slates, but I’m not excited
Toronto is an odd duck in losing their last three games, going 5-4 in their L9 games, and outscoring their opponents 31-25 over the stretch. They carry the highest MU Score on the slate (tied with 3 others), but it’s not an impressive score. The studs are there in Matthews, Tavares, and company, but this game also screams mediocre for fantasy. We’ll have to dip our toe in, again, because it’s a small slate. But, looking at the weather in our next game and the duds in the late game, this might be the best opportunity to fade the slate and take your WAG out to a solid dinner instead.
Goalie – Looking back 7-10 games, it’s not often Anderson is going to really go thunk on your lineup, but he’s another at the top of the price pool. I can’t really ship you a ringing endorsement outside of some of the Vegas money line faith he’s getting. But, he’s not a horrible option. And, tonight, that’s starting to feel like a ringing endorsement after all…
5 star plays – Matthews (C), Tavares (C)
4 star plays – Rielly (D), Johnsson (W), Kapanen (W), Marner (W), Hyman (W)
Cash gamers – Johnsson (W), Kapanen (W)
GPP Sleeper – not really a “sleeper,” but I do prefer the Tavares/Marner/Hyman stack at home, include Rielly as well.
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Pittsburgh Penguins @ Philadelphia Flyers
Odds – PIT -125, 6.5 o/u
This game will be played outdoors. Our VIPs have already received a full weather report containing quick tips on leveraging gpp fields in these scenarios. Do you fade the game? Go overweight? Our VIPs know.
Outdoors games are interesting gimmicks for the league. I like them. I’ll maybe even watch. I’ll watch even more if it rains and they play in some slushy slop. But, I don’t know where my DFS lineups will go. Pittsburgh weighs in on top of our MU Score again, and PHI has given 16 goals in 4 games…..3 of which they gave 5 to the opposing team. I’m going to want a piece of that should the trend continue. Again with the “four game slate” theme, it’s kind of all hands on deck, but my key focal points are listed below.
Goalie – If the game gets messy, I’m less interested in the goalies here. I’m not really interested in DeSmith on a sunny day, though.
5 star plays – Crosby (C), Letang (D), Guentzel (W), Rust (5)
4 star plays – Malkin (C)
Cash gamers – Aston-Reese (W), Bjugstad (W)
GPP Sleeper – no one here is sneaky, but an odd looking stack might throw you off some of the chalk.
Philadelphia ties for the top MU Score with the others, and I might prefer their side of the puck if I had to. Pricing matters in DFS NHL and these guys aren’t as costly (and are a little more consistent right now by default) than their PIT counterparts. Coutrier, Gostisbehere, Voracek and Konecny all make fine plays in this matchup, but they have also been fairly consistent in an inconsistent sport. I might take most of my action here tonight and build around these guys.
Goalie – That doesn’t mean I want a goalie facing the Penguins. Carter Hart is coming off back to back stinkers where he posted significantly negative scores. Young goalies will normalize their hot starts with some poor ones, but he’s also priced with the big boys…..and we need to see more than these lineup tanking duds before we go back to routinely rostering him. He’s possibly a gpp option for me, but you won’t see him near a cash-based build for awhile.
5 star plays – Coutrier (C), Voracek (W), Linblom (W), Konecny (W), Sanheim (D)
4 star plays – Giroux (W), Gostisbehere (D), Provorov (D)
Deeper value – Coutrier (C), Lindblom (W), Sanheim (D)
GPP Sleeper – again, not sneaky, but many possible stacks here….barring weather
NBA All-Star Break has been a great success for many of our newer players! Our coaches have done a lot of explaining, and our members have done a lot of winning. The edge clearly resides in coaching. Content and tools are nice, but how can you exploit your opponents when you don’t have the experts teaching you how to apply the content and tools? That’s where DFS Army steps in. Become a VIP and see what all the fuss is about…..#FearTheHelmet!!
New York Islanders @ Vancouver Canucks
Odds – NYI -125, 5.5 o/u leaning hard on the under…
Once again, we grab some horrible DFS NHL options in the same game. Maybe not completely void of DFS interest, but far from my focus tonight. Hardly worth talking about. Let’s just get to the players. I will, however, say that there is an impressive list of cash viable value here, and MANY more are so close to cash-safe I could argue their case. I like the Isles more than I thought I would at first glance.
Goalie – Lehner is pricey, and will probably be popular, but I think I like the value the late game presents for goalie a bit better. He’s ok tonight, but I don’t see myself using him much.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Pulock (D), Nelson (C), Kuhnhackl (W), Bailey (W), DToews (D)
Cash gamers – Kuhnhackl (W), Bailey (W), Pelech (D), DToews (D)
GPP Sleeper – psycho stack of Bailey/Kuhnhackl/Pulock does carry upside because it’s cheap and currently producing, but it’s still sub-standard and a bit of a reach.
Same statement as above, just below.
Goalie – Markstrom is a pass for me. Again, I like the value coming out of the late game for goalie and will focus my energy there.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Petterson (C), Boeser (W), Horvat (C)
Cash gamers – Horvat (C)
GPP Sleeper – why? you can do anything, but I’m not banking on VAN blowing up here.
Anaheim Ducks @ Edmonton Oilers
Odds – EDM -145, 5.5 o/u
Last game brings us more yuck. I’m focused on the goalies here because this game has a lack of offense in it. I can, however, see the theme of “two bad defenses lead to a shootout” and see us getting some surprise performances. Any production from Anaheim should come from Silfverberg, Henrique, Lindholm, or Getzlaf much like we targeted in our goofy stack last night. Of course, it didn’t pan out, and won’t likely again tonight, but I can see it happening and don’t want it to be on a day I’m not looking. #DayEarlyStacks are a thing in NHL and this is definitely one being we called it last night….a day early.
Goalie – We get the 3rd game out of Kevin Boyle tonight, and he’s cheap…..I’ll give you that. I’m intrigued by the 40 point upside he flashed in his debut, and his 12 last time out didn’t kill anyone at this price point. So, I might head here by default given the higher priced skating upside on the slate and the fact VAN doesn’t scare me as much as my wife rolling over without any makeup (it’s a joke, ladies…..gimme a break here).
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Silvferberg (W)
Cash gamers – Shore (W), Lindholm (D)
GPP Sleeper – Silvferberg/Shore/Lindholm as a deeper value play to get another united stack of big priced studs elsewhere.
Edmonton has won only once in their last six and hasn’t been scoring goals, either. It’s just not a good time to be an Oilers fan. If McDavid has a great game, they can win. If not, though, they are useless as tits on a bull most times. And it appears McJesus doesn’t always walk on water or turn the other cheek as tonight appears to be the start of a 2-game suspension (per Rotoworld) for a check on Nick Leddy. GPP players will go nuts asking “who’s the pivot?” and I’m going to go nuts if those DFS players don’t use their damned heads and realize another door may open when one closes, but it doesn’t mean the prize behind said door is worth a shit. Leon Draisaitl has accumulated nearly 20 Fanduel points per game over his L10 and is going to be the “next man up” if you must target this game at all.
Goalie – Outside of a recent dud, Koskinen has been ok, too. Not a ton of offense here, but not a ton of shot volume either. Ceilings are likely capped unless you get lucky with a shutout. But, damage is also limited here, too. So, Koskinen is on the radar at his price.
5 star plays – Draisaitl (C)
4 star plays – Nugent-Hopkins (C), Nurse (D)
Cash gamers – Draisaitl (C), Nugent-Hopkins (C)
GPP Sleeper – Klefbom/Draisaitl will catch the DFS NHL world off-guard. Draisaitl is consistent and Klefbom has tons of upside, but you need to get really lucky on this one.
Here is a one game view of our NHL Research Station matchup page. My daily videos typically walk you through this page and point out how I quickly decipher the best plays on the slate. When you unlock access to this page, you get team stats with large and small sample sizes to pick up trends, all the basis statistics, pricing, scoring lines, power play lines, scoring production including shots and blocks, and you get it all in one easy to read view. But, you only get it as a VIP. 99% of the stats I reference are directly from this single page. Your research has never been easier!!
Favorite NHL DFS Stacks for Tonight…
What is NHL without stacking?!
PHI2 – Throw in Sanheim and you have a shot if the weather holds up tonight.
PIT hybrid – Honrqvist, Bjugstad, Letang earns you PP1 correlation and access to both Sidney and Malkin without having to pay for them.
GPP Sleeper stack = ANA hybrid – Silvferberg, Getzlaf, Lindholm – same as last night outside of swapping Getzlaf in for Henrique. I wasn’t happy to see Henrique suddenly demoted to L3 and that messed this stack up a little. Same high risk/high reward type spot, but I don’t know any contests tonight are even paying the ROI to the winners to justify this kind of move.
Hopefully, those pointers get you started in your research. I will be bouncing in and out of our NHL coaching room all day, with the rest of our coaches, to guide anyone with questions. I plan to drop a slate video showing our research process most days, and with a little time, our VIPs request shorter, strategy videos to help them shore up fundamentals, too. All free videos can be found on my YouTube channel, but all VIP videos need the key to unlock the vault.
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I hope to see you inside soon. Have a blessed day.
