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NHL DFS Matchup Rankings L10 Games
Last 10 games. Home teams in white, away in gray. GF = Goals For, GA = Goals Against. MU Score is a combined metric showing how one matchup tonight compares to the others on paper. Green is good, red is bad. We are looking for the best matchups of teams scoring goals facing teams allowing goals. Not exactly rocket science, so don’t overthink it.
Columbus Blue Jackets @ Ottawa Senators
Odds – CBJ -190, 6.5 o/u
Columbus enters tonight in a bit of scoring drought. They have occasional outbursts, and they also give occasional outbursts. There isn’t much to bank on with Blue Jackets skaters right now. They don’t draw a terrible matchup tonight (ranking tied for 3rd on our MU Score above), but I’m interested in playing them more because of the 5 game slate and lack of better options than because I’m excited by what the team is currently doing. The top line of Dubois, Atkinson, and Panarin isn’t firing on all cylinders, and as a result, they are best used as one-offs outside of tourney stacks. When they are firing well, Seth Jones handles point duties on the power play, but even Seth has been quiet lately.
Goalie – Bobrovsky is definitely in play with the -190 out of Vegas sportsbooks. He has won 5 of his last 7 games, but has allowed goals along the way. So, you need the win to really bring your lineup value at the price. Given the current state of Ottawa, though, he might be one of our chalkier options on the night.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Panarin (W), Atkinson (W), Johnson (W)
Deeper value – Johnson (W)
GPP Sleeper – Stack that top power play or even the top even strength line. The talent is there, the ownership tonight might not be.
Ottawa played in Jersey last night, so technically we have a back to back situation. More importantly, though, is the pending trade rumors swirling a few key players in Duchene, Dzingel, and Stone. The Senators are “sellers” come this trade deadline and are trying to bring back pieces they can build around in the future. We need to follow the situation for impacts on both their own skaters and a possible sweetening of the matchup Columbus faces on the other side of the ice.
Goalie – Nilsson should not be in play. He is a below .500 goalie about to lose some key pieces to trades. Low upside, low floor option.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Chabot (D), Tkachuk (W)
Deeper value – Tkachuk (W)
GPP Sleeper – boy, this would be some kind of sleeper stack. I don’t see CBJ chalky enough to generate the leverage unless the trade happens and Bobrovsky becomes the chalk goalie of the night.
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Colarado Avalanche @ Chicago Blackhawks
Odds – COL -115, 7.0 o/u (leaning strong to the under currently)
Colorado may be coming back to life after a weird dry spell. The Avs have won 3 of their last 4 and in those wins have outscored opponents 14-2. This game feels more like a shootout than a spot for COL to dominate looking at our MU Scores graphic above. But, where do we look? The Avs have really juggled up their lines lately. Over these last 3 games, the centers are dominating the scoring from Carl Soderberg to Nathan MacKinnon to even Tyson Jost, so you can likely find some value there. Other not-so-household names like Matt Calvert and Matt Nieto are also providing a little punch. This offense isn’t as easy to pinpoint as it was earlier in the year, and maybe that’s the point the coaching staff is trying to make to opposing teams……and, by default, us.
Goalie – Varlamov has been instrumental in the Avalanche turnaround stopping 120 of his last 124 shots (.968 save pct), and he has only allowed 4 goals across that span. However, he’s a risky gpp option tonight vs a raging hot CHI offense.
5 star plays – none yet, but coming around
4 star plays – Landeskog (W), MacKinnon (C), Soderberg (C)
Deeper value – Soderberg (C), Jost (C), Nieto (W), Calvert (W)
GPP Sleeper – COL2 containing Landeskog/Calvert/Jost
Chicago carries the highest MU Score on the slate with an 8.0. So many bright spots; so many consistent spots at the moment. This team has paid the bills handsomely of late, and our only hope is that it just continues more and more and more. The COL defense hasn’t been as bad this past week as it was the week before. In a streaky game like hockey, it won’t surprise me to see the Blackhawks’ upside dashed a bit. But, we don’t get off this train until it derails in conservative formats. Save the guesswork and anticipation for gpps.
Goalie – COL is coming back with a vengeance, and CHI doesn’t play much defense with 3.7 goals allowed per game over their last 10. This is a dangerous spot tonight and safest to avoid altogether.
5 star plays – Kane (W), DeBrincat (W), Toews (C), Strome (C), Gustafsson (D)
4 star plays – Saad (W)
Deeper value – Saad (W), Kahun (W), Keith (D)
GPP Sleeper – nothing is really a sleeper here. Mix and match at will…..just tie it all in with tight correlation.
Minnesota Wild @ Detroit Red Wings
Odds – DET -110, 5.5 o/u
Minnesota snapped a 5-game losing streak last night by sort of surprising the DFS community a bit with a 4-1 win over the New York Rangers. They head into Detroit tonight with a still-terrible MU Score because they need to show us more offense to move their number and DET is playing solid defense right now. I don’t know that people will necessarily chase points here, but on a shorter slate I do think some of their producing pieces will carry a smidge higher ownership than they would have in a loss. Spurgeon, Parise, and Granlund are your producers here. I don’t think I’d get too fancy here outside of the big names or a cap-saver like Kunin on the L2 wing.
Goalie – Stalock has given up 11 goals in his last 3 starts, all losses. I think I’ll pass tonight.
5 star plays – Spurgeon (D)
4 star plays – Parise (W), Granlund (W)
Deeper value – Kunin (W)
GPP Sleeper – you can roll a stack of these guys above, but I’m not really turned on by it.
Detroit has a middle of the road MU Score tonight, but don’t let that fool you. They haven’t been winning, but they’ve been pretty good in spots for DFS NHL lately. Dylan Larkin is a stud with 5 goals and 5 assists in his last 9 games, and he’s been remarkably consistent despite the DET record of 3-6 over that span. The offense flows through this guy. Two other producers of note are Mantha as a linemate and Athanasiou down on the 3rd line (but correlating on the top power play). Thomas Vanek and Mike Green also mix in here and there, and lately we’ve spotted Gustav Nyquist making cameos in this offense. There is a lot of value in here right now. Remember, DFS isn’t about winning and losing….it’s about scoring points for cheap. A few of these Red Wings are just sort of getting it done.
Goalie – Jimmy Howard might be the definition of a gpp goalie right now. When he’s on, he’s really on. He has allowed 2 goals or less in his last 6 wins. But, his losses have been 5, 4, 4, and 5 goals against, too. Ride the roller coaster in a gpp if you want. Sometimes that’s what it takes to win one.
5 star plays – Larkin (C)
4 star plays – Athanasiou (W), Mantha (W)
Deeper value – Vanek (W), Green (D)
GPP Sleeper – Nyquist (W)
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Anaheim Ducks @ Calgary Flames
Odds – CGY -255, 6.0 o/u….leaning under
Anaheim has also suddenly sprung to a little life in winning back to back games and scoring 9 goals in those wins. They have also only allowed 5 goals in their last 5 games with two shutouts! They get a test tonight, though, with the Calgary Flames offense, but the Calgary defense leaves a sneaky opening to continue this tear being the Flames have allowed 3.9 goals against in their last 10 games. Jakob Silfverberg leads the fantasy production here with 3 goals in his last 3 games and 54.1 Fanduel points. Adam Henrique, Corey Perry, and Hampus Lindholm also deserve some recognition leading their respective lines/parings and giving a somewhat balanced scoring attack to the Ducks this past week. If you ride the hot hand, these guys might be sneaky as the DFS NHL community is slow to recognize the change in the Ducks offense.
Goalie – I’m not interested in taking on the Flames powerhouses.
5 star plays – close but no cigar
4 star plays – Silfverberg (W), Henrique (C), Perry (W), Lindholm (D)
Deeper value – all four of the above names
GPP Sleeper – Mostly used as one-offs, these names don’t correlate well. You could feasibly stack linemates with them, but the mates aren’t producing.
Calgary comes in a little hot, too. 14 goals in their last three games is something to take note of. Their MU Score of 7.3 is also 2nd highest on the slate and begs for attention. Many a DFS player will flock here, and while I will too, the contrarian might opt for the #FlamesFade and gamble on Anaheim pitching another shutout. Either plan has some merit. While many players know the names of the big Flames studs, the under-the-radar move might be focusing on the second line of Lindholm, Backlund, and Frolik. In their last three games, this line has amassed 5 goals, 9 assists and 28 shots on the cheap. If they can keep that rolling, this is your gpp sleeper stack.
Goalie – Mike Smith is likely the cash-safe goalie, as I don’t think the Ducks necessarily win this game. But, I don’t think Smith is pitching a shutout tonight, and I think many people think he might. This is also one of those rare nights I might take some value against my goalie on a shorter slate, but like you, I haven’t begun to even build anything. I just know I like the value in this Anaheim offense enough to do it if I need expensive skaters.
5 star plays – Backlund (C), Frolik (W)
4 star plays – Lindholm (W), Giordano (D)
Deeper value – Derek Ryan (C)
GPP Sleeper – CGY2 stacked up!
Winnipeg Jets @ Vegas Golden Knights
Odds – VGK -160, 6.0 o/u…..opened at 6.5, immediately dropped to 6.0, and is now leaning “over 6” again.
Winnipeg has derailed a bit and lost 3 in a row. Over that time frame, they have allowed 15 goals. Worse yet, they have allowed 25 goals over their last 7 games. Obviously, this puts the Knights in a solid spot offensively, but the Knights have given a 3.4 goal against average over 10 games themselves, which brings us back to the Jets and a potential shootout. You can’t argue names like Scheifele, Wheeler, and Laine. We need others (well, Laine, too) to come to life again in order to really see what Winnipeg can do. Will tonight be the night?
Goalie – No way with giving that many goals over such a short span.
5 star plays – Scheifele (C), Trouba (D)
4 star plays – Myers (D), Wheeler (W), Connor (W)
Deeper value – Tanev (W)
GPP Sleeper – not really a sleeper, per se.
Well, Vegas draws a pretty cherry matchup with those WPG goals against numbers lately. But, when only scoring 5 goals once in the month of February, it doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence in your DFS fans. Nate Schmidt, Shea Theodore, William Karlsson, Reilly Smith, and William Marchessault are the mainstays if anything is to happen. Max Pacioretty has turned it up a notch lately. Brandon Pirri is on the shuttle bus between the NHL and the AHL all the time, but is currently up and producing with the big club. We just need to time these guys right and hope they heat up.
Goalie – Fleury might be a name you recognize, but he’s lost his last 4 games. Hard to bet on that.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Schmidt (D), Theodore (D), Smith (W), Pacioretty (W)
Deeper value – Oscar Lindberg (W)
GPP Sleeper – really sort of rolling the dice here.
Here is a one game view of our NHL Research Station matchup page. My daily videos typically walk you through this page and point out how I quickly decipher the best plays on the slate. When you unlock access to this page, you get team stats with large and small sample sizes to pick up trends, all the basis statistics, pricing, scoring lines, power play lines, scoring production including shots and blocks, and you get it all in one easy to read view. But, you only get it as a VIP. 99% of the stats I reference are directly from this single page. Your research has never been easier!!
Favorite NHL DFS Stacks for Tonight…
What is NHL without stacking?!
CHI hybrid – Mix and match any of Kane, Toews, DeBrincat, Strome, Gustafsson
DET hybrid – Larkin, Mantha, Athanasiou, or Green
CGY2 – Frolik, Backlund, Lindholm
GPP Sleeper stack = ANA hybrid – Silvferberg, Henrique, Lindholm – only $12,800 on Fanduel ($12,500 on Draftkings) and very sneaky. This stack focuses on the current short-term producers, uses my favorite “move” (2nd units on road), and might generate leverage off a chalky goalie in Mike Smith tonight. I love applying the damage to the chalk in gpps, and this stack has that kind of potential.
Hopefully, those pointers get you started in your research. I will be bouncing in and out of our NHL coaching room all day, with the rest of our coaches, to guide anyone with questions. I plan to drop a slate video showing our research process most days, and with a little time, our VIPs request shorter, strategy videos to help them shore up fundamentals, too. All free videos can be found on my YouTube channel, but all VIP videos need the key to unlock the vault.
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I hope to see you inside soon. Have a blessed day.
