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NHL DFS Matchup Rankings L10 Games
Last 10 games. Home teams in white, away in gray. GF = Goals For, GA = Goals Against. MU Score is a combined metric showing how one matchup tonight compares to the others on paper. Green is good, red is bad. We are looking for the best matchups of teams scoring goals facing teams allowing goals. Not exactly rocket science, so don’t overthink it.
Summary of offenses we will be targeting – Tampa Bay Lightning, San Jose Sharks, New York Rangers, Pittsburgh Penguins, Ottawa Senators
Minnesota Wild @ New York Rangers – Odds: NYR -111, 6 o/u
MIN implied – 2.9, NYR implied – 3.1
Minnesota unloaded Charlie Coyle this week, but realistically nothing changes. They lose his last 5 game production of no goals, no assists and 10 shots…..so good riddance. But, they also didn’t replace him with much, either. MIN is just a bit of a trainwreck right now and in danger of falling out of playoff contention. I’d wait, on larger slates especially, to see if they turn anything around before boarding this bandwagon again. However, as mediocre one-off possibilities, you could run Mikael Granlund, Zach Parise, or Jared Spurgeon out. All are bringing Fanduel value across their last 5 game samples, but they aren’t cheap enough, in my opinion. If spending mid 5k or 6k range for skaters, I’d rather have some teammates doing something around them, too. I’ll play the “one-off from a bad offense” game with dirt cheap players, which none of these are.
5 star plays –
4 star plays – Mikael Granlund (C), Zach Parise (W), Jared Spurgeon (D)
Deeper value –
GPP Sleeper – maybe that MIN2 stack of the above guys.
New York, on the other hand, is one of our top MU Scores of the night. MIN is allowing 3.7 goals against over their last 10 games, which is tied for worst (great for NYR) on the slate. Being that NYR has been scoring here and there, this becomes a pretty sweet spot, and it might even be a bit sneaky with a MU Score of 6.9 and an ITT from sportsbooks at only 3.1. I really want to see some value here. If I do, I’ll get really excited. Let’s look… The top line of NYR1 is where you’ll find it in Mika Zibanejad and Mats Zuccarello. For hybrid correlation, Kevin Hayes is also on that PP1 unit and has dropped 4 goals and 5 assists on 24 shots of his own in his last 10 games. If you want to be unique, Zib and Hayes pair up the biggest punch, but it costs you both your centers tonight….#DoubleCs!
5 star plays – Mika Zibanejad (C), Mats Zuccarello (W), Kevin Hayes (C)
4 star plays – Chris Kreider (W)
Deeper value – Kevin Shattenkirk (D), Pavel Buchnevich (W), Vladislav Namestnikov (W), Tony DeAngelo (D), Ryan Strome (C)
GPP Sleeper – offense as a whole might sneak under the radar a bit
Carolina Hurricanes @ Florida Panthers – Odds: CAR -115, 6 o/u
CAR implied – 3.1, FLA implied – 2.2
Carolina has been scoring of late, and they’ve been led by their top line mostly. They might not be high on our chart above, but I do like grabbing pieces of them tonight. Justin Williams, Nino Niederreiter, and Sebastian Aho have combined for 8 goals, 21 assists and 104 shots on goal over a 10 game sample. The occasional help by Michael Ferland, for cheap, and Teuvo Teraveinen also provide 2nd line support and even some correlation to the power plays. I’d likely focus on Teraveinen tonight as my key play, and mix in some Ferland for gpps or some of those top line skaters for more conservative contests. (Our vips received a 10 minute video showing examples of correlation plays and how to think them through for cash, hybrid lineups, and gpps.)
5 star plays – Teuvo Teraveinen (W), Micheal Ferland (W), Justin Williams (W)
4 star plays – Sebastian Aho (C), Nino Niederreiter (W)
Deeper value – Michael Ferland (W), Lucas Wallmark (C)
GPP Sleeper – CAR2 – Teraveinen, Ferland, Wallmark
I can’t argue how hot Alexander Barkov has been the past few games, but I just don’t see a lot in this offense at the moment outside of a gpp shot at the FLA1 (Barkov, Huberdeau, Vatrano) at home. They have scored lately (8 goals, 8 assists on 58 shots over their L5 games), but CAR is a bit of a defensive team by nature and great as suppressing shot totals. This pushes the Panthers down into gpp-only status for me tonight.
5 star plays – Barkov (C)
4 star plays – Vatrano (W), Keith Yandle (D)
Deeper value –
GPP Sleeper – FLA1 stack
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San Jose Sharks @ Pittsburgh Penguins – Odds PIT -111, 7 o/u
SJS implied – 3.4 , PIT implied – 3.6
A 7 o/u total is a rare treat in NHL!! We have a bonafide CHALK ALERT, too. No one will miss San Jose in this one and many will stack it both ways in cash. My tip to you is temper exposure in cash contests just in case the unthinkable happens, as it often does in NHL, and this one somehow posts a dud. That said, SJS brings our 2nd highest MU Score to the table with a 7.4 because PIT isn’t exactly defensive minded (not SJS is, either). Lead dogs are almost always that top line of Couture, Meier and Pavelski with the big blue liner, Brent Burns. High floors, solid production, not a bad place to drop anchor for the night. However, don’t overlook that 2nd line being SJS is on the road. Hertl/Kane have 5 goals and 8 assists between them to go with a respectable 23 shots in their last 5 games. And, Burns overlaps with them some while also providing sensible exposure to the top line should they continue leading the charge.
5 star plays – Burns (D), Pavelski (W), Meier (W)
4 star plays – Kane (W), Couture (C)
Deeper value – Labanc (W)
GPP Sleeper – no such thing as a sleeper in this game
Pittsburgh has won 4 of their last 5 games, and scored 4+ goals in their last 6. Saying their offense is rolling is almost insulting at this point. Sidney Crosby has warmed back up with 9 assists in his last 5 games, and Egveni Malkin has 4 goals and 5 assists of his own over that same stretch. Their names are synonymous with Penguins and offense. But, to correlate these guys, you often need secondary pieces to go around them. They are a little hard to find outside of what is really another core piece in Kris Letang on defense. But, the top line of Bryan Rust and/or Jake Geuntzel is likely were I’d look first tonight. Those two have a couple goals apiece and 15 and 10 shots, respectively, across that 5 game sample we are watching.
5 star plays – Malkin (C), Crosby (C), Letang (D)
4 star plays – Bjugstad (W), Geuntzel (W)
Deeper value – Bjugstad (W)
GPP Sleeper – yeh….that’s another no
Ottawa Senators @ New Jersey Devils – Odds NJD -130, 6.5 o/u
OTT implied – 3.1 , NJD implied – 3.4
I’m hearing people say this game is a snooze fest tonight, but I think there is sneaky potential on both sides here. NJ has allowed 3.5 goals against in their L10 and that puts the Senators in a good position for the gpp gamblers willing to take chances. We do, however, need to watch news on swirling rumors of a Matt Duchene trade. That would certainly rock the boat, but it very well might also bump a Brady Tkachuk back to the top line where he has a very solid shot floor, according to our NHL Research Station, with 38 shots over 10 games….nearly a 4 per game clip. Mark Stone has 6 goals and 6 assists over the same 10 game span, and young stud Thomas Chabot anchors the top power play with multi-goal upside of his own. You might want to dig into this one a little tonight and take a shot or three.
5 star plays – Stone (W), Duchene (C)….(should he not be traded), Tkachuk (W)
4 star plays – Chabot (D), Dzingel (W)
Deeper value – Tkachuk (W)
GPP Sleeper – OTT2 if Duchene not traded, re-evaluate in our coaching forums if he is.
The New Jersey Devils appear boring on the outside without Taylor Hall, but don’t turn your head away from Kyle Palmeiri, who leads the team with 6.4 Draftkings points per game over his last 5 games. At only $6000, he is bringing decent value over what is growing to be a decent sample for NHL DFS. The rest of the offense might seem hard-pressed for talent, but Jesper Bratt and Marcus Johansson are a couple of cheaper players that have been riding hot streaks of their own, 6.0 and 5.4 DK ppg respectively. You will find all three correlated on that top power play unit, and OTT is giving nearly 3 power plays per game to opposing teams on the season.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Palmieri (W)
Deeper value – Bratt (W)
GPP Sleeper – NJ PP1
Washington Capitals @ Toronto Maple Leafs – Odds TOR -165, 6.5 o/u
WAS implied – 2.8 , TOR implied – 3.7
We can usually consider Toronto a team that doesn’t care about defense, but lately they’ve been better. That puts a little bit of a lid on Washington tonight, and it might catch people off guard. Our MU Score of 5.8 is very middle of the road, and people love Alexander Ovechkin (averaging 34.6 FD ppg and 9.1 DK ppg over his L5 with legit slate-breaking power). But, he might be the only Capital I look for tonight with that 2.8 implied total out of Vegas. I just don’t see much on this side to get very excited about.
5 star plays – Ovechkin (W)
4 star plays – nothing exciting
Deeper value – nothing exciting
GPP Sleeper – when nothing looks great, however, we can take gpp shots. I’d prefer some combo of Carlson (D), Ovechkin (W), Oshie (W), Kuznetsov (C)
The Toronto side didn’t check in a lot stronger tonight, either. However, this is a large slate, and on a smaller slate we’d be all over this matchup. WAS and TOR typically have attackable defenses, and we should be bearing that in mind in tourneys. There are simply better “odds on” offenses tonight we should turn our attention towards in more conservative contests like leagues, head to heads, and cash games. Austin Matthews leads the way with 4 goals and 3 assists over 5 games at even strength. His linemate, Kasperi Kapanen is following close behind with 3 goals and 3 assists of his own over the same span. Of note, 3rd line center Nazem Kadri will miss the next several games with a concussion. We should be watching for a Nylander or another underpriced skater to step into Kadri’s vacated PP1 role with Matthews and Tavares to provide us possible value and cheaper exposure to Toronto’s biggest weapons. (Our VIPs get the news quickly in our coaching rooms as it breaks.)
5 star plays – Matthews (C), Kapanen (W),
4 star plays – Tavares (C), Marner (W), Reilly (D)
Deeper value – Nylander (W)
GPP Sleeper – TOR PP1, notably the fill-in guy with Matthews, then maybe a mix of Tavares, Marner or Reilly.
Philadelphia Flyers @ Montreal Canadiens – Odds MTL -150, 6 o/u
PHI implied – 2.7, MTL implied – 3.3
Philadelphia has been scoring fine lately (3.5 goals per game), but Montreal hasn’t been having much of that business (only 2.8 allowed per game), that yields a MU Score of 6.3 which ranks PHI 10th of 22 teams. Not great, and that won’t draw much of my attention outside of some one-off play and/or a sneaky gpp stack in hopes of catching right at lower ownership. The PHI2 is leading the way here with all three of Coutrier, Voracek, and Lindblom averaging over 4 DK ppg in a 5 game stretch. Being I love my 2nd lines on the road, that would also be my favorite stack tonight. That sure was easy. Gostisbehere has provided production on the top power play of late, and Konecny always has streaky multi-goal scoring potential, though I’d not call either a value play at their current pricing.
5 star plays – Coutrier, Voracek, Lindblom
4 star plays – Gostisbehere
Deeper value – not really any
GPP Sleeper – PHI 2 stacked up!…..maybe Konecny as a one-off, but on a large slate he’s a bit of a reach.
Montreal is ranked even further down our MU Score list tonight, and I’m just not very excited about their lack of punch lately. I’ll be passing on this slate, and I don’t even see solid plays to recommend for you when compared with the others across the slate. Fair warning, the later half of this slate is just boring and really hard to swallow for NHL DFS.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Deeper value – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Buffalo Sabres @ Tampa Bay Lightning – Odds TBL -250, 6.5 o/u
BUF implied – 2.3, TBL implied – 4,2
Way down at the bottom of our list, we find Buffalo. I’m not even going to try and justify anything outside of one-offs for you. The Sabres do have some stud talent, but nothing is really clicking right now for them, and prices aren’t really cheap enough to entice me to play them as anything but solo plays, and likely only in tourneys.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Eichel (C), Skinner (W), Reinhart (W)
Deeper value – none
GPP Sleeper – anything is possible, but I won’t have significant pieces
Being Buffalo isn’t exactly playing well right now, they are of course giving up goals. 18 goals against in their last 5 games to be exact. Bring in the league’s top offense of Tampa Bay, and it might be time to scream “Katie Bar the Door!” I don’t see Buffalo putting up a fight, and their only hope might be the Lightning looking past them at hoisting the Stanley Cup in a few months. If TB bears down, this is a NHL DFS bonanza with a MU Score topping the night at 7.7! Kucherov and Stamkos need heavy consideration in all formats tonight as they are carrying L5 Fanduel ppg averages of 46 and 33 right now, respectively, and are two of the absolute best plays on the slate tonight. Gourde, Palat, Pointe, Miller, Hedman, and many other mentionable names hit the ice for a devastating team that can roll 4 lines of talent at you all night long. No one is particularly cheap, but they are playing some great team hockey, and have been all year long. My own cash games likely start here. We need to watch for the Hedman/Sergachev news. If Hedman plays tonight, Sergachev goes back to a borderline punt play instead of the lock he was on Tuesday due to his surge into an increased role for which his price was never going to catch up.
5 star plays – Kucherov (W), Stamkos (C), Sergachev (D)…….if Hedman is out.
4 star plays – Point (C), Palat (W), Gourde (W), Hedman (D)
Deeper value – J.T. Miller (W)
GPP Sleeper – nope….chalky as they come.
Los Angeles Kings @ Nashville Predators – Odds NSH -220, 5.5 o/u
LAK implied – 2.1, NSH implied 3.4
Back to the boring. Los Angeles barely cracks the 2 goal mark in implied totals tonight. That’s just gross, and not worthy of really looking too deeply into Medusa’s eyes here. There is some one-off value in a few of the skaters, but I’m not as interested in attacking Nashville in their building where they allow under 2.5 goals per game to opponents. I consider slate size and try to avoid Tampa Bay when they visit Nashville for comparison.
5 star plays – nope
4 star plays – nada
Deeper value – zero
GPP Sleeper – zilch
Nashville sits just outside our top 5 MU Score rankings tonight because the pure numbers see the LAK recent goals allowed average sitting at 3.4. While that’s not great, I’ve fallen into the “Nashville skaters are in great spots” trap enough this year to remember they disappoint more times than not. If they lead the slate in scoring, I’ll happily have a few in gpps. But, they will NOT be popular enough to hurt me in cash games if they go off. I’ll easily dodge most of the damage by sticking with the better offenses on the slate…..and so will you.
5 star plays – not seeing anything tempting “must have” status
4 star plays – Josi (D), Arvidsson (W)
Deeper value – Ekholm (D)
GPP Sleeper – Honestly, Josi, Forsberg, Arvidsson, and Johansen (C) are reasonably priced and worth taking a shot at lightning with in bigger gpps.
St. Louis Blues @ Dallas Stars – Odds STL -125, 5.5 o/u
STL implied – 2.9, DAL implied 2.0
No one hotter than the Blues right now as they head down to Dallas to attempt a 12 game winning streak. Sure, they are scoring well on the backs of Tarasenko (probably the 3rd best pure play on the slate in terms of L5 ppg on both sites), Ryan O’Reilly, and Alex Pietrangelo setting up plays from the blue line. But, Dallas is one of the tougher defenses on the slate and in the league in general. I’m not fond of attacking these spots wholesale. I might pick some spots, but I might save any Blues (outside of maybe Tarasenko or O’Reilly) for smaller slates instead of the Main Slate tonight. If you are going to attack anything, keep it cheap, and that screams defenseman. The STL offense, right now, has systematically encouraged defenders to jump into the offensive plays. This defensive core has amassed more scoring than almost every team in the league and bears consideration for “cheaper value” plays tonight.
5 star plays – Tarasenko (W)
4 star plays – O’Reilly (C), Schenn (W), Schwartz (W), Bozak (C), Pietrangelo (D)
Deeper value – Parayko (D), Dunn (D), even Edmunson (D)
GPP Sleeper – STL2 and more specifically someone like Dunn and the PP2.
Dallas is as boring right now as trying to watch 1985 reruns of their namesake drama series. Actually, a good rehasing of “who shot JR?” would be more compelling that Dallas hockey right now. Yes, I know Tyler Seguin is on this team, and I’d love to have him play for my team, but this brand of hockey is like watching paint dry while sitting on a park bench with my mother-in-law waiting for a bus running 2 hours late. Hard pass on all of them being STL is playing lights out defense right now. The ULTIMATE gpp contrarian play tonight would be Seguin as a one-off or as part of some borderline suicidal stack.
5 star plays – why
4 star plays – you
Deeper value – hurt
GPP Sleeper – me?
New York Islanders @ Edmonton Oilers – Odds NYI -120, 5.5 o/u
NYI implied – 2.9, EDM implied 2.0
None of these last four teams are even averaging 2.4 goals per game over a 1o game sample. If I wouldn’t fire myself, I’d just cut things off here and go watch C-Span. Ugh…but soldier on, we must. Just don’t spend more than 5 minutes reading the rest of this drivel please…..The Islanders aren’t offensive, but they do have some offense showing signs of life. Just not enough I want to play Russian Roulette on an 11 game slate. And, no way I’d play the late slates with this pile of games remaining……peeee yuuuuu.
5 star plays – nothing super stellar
4 star plays – Devon Toews (D), Cezikas (W)
Deeper value – Devon Toews (D)
GPP Sleeper – just don’t
So Connor McDavid goes, so Edmonton goes. And, when he’s not around, neither is the Oiler offense. That’s crack analysis right there, but it’s spot on. Edmonton is forced to lean on Leon Draisaitl, which is fine, and he’s got a tremendous ceiling. Just not in a terrible game for $8100 on Fanduel and $7000 on Draftkings. I can find better uses for my money, which actually makes him a nice one-off tourney piece if you dare. The rest of this team is hard-pressed to help out much. I take that back Ryan Nugent-Hopkins filled in admirably the other night for McJesus, and he might just do it again. I’m ok with that in a small smattering of lineups.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – not really
Deeper value – nothing exciting
GPP Sleeper – Draisaitl (W), Nugent-Hopkins (C) stack is about all I’d play
Arizona Coyotes @ Vancouver Canucks – Odds VAN -125, 5.5 o/u
ARI implied 2.6, VAN implied 2.9
Phew, we’ve almost made it! And, we are left with perhaps the worst game on the slate. NHL really can be the anit-basketball when it comes to late night hammers. Arizona is not good. They are typically worse on the road. They carry a MU Score tonight of 5.6 and that’s not worth chasing with your Fanduel points or Draftkings crowns. I suppose we could force in some one-off value, but why? We have literally 9 other games to pick from in better spots. Let’s just pass tonight.
5 star plays – maybe
4 star plays – when
Deeper value – back
GPP Sleeper – home
Vancouver isn’t in a better spot. This game will have some scoring, and it will accumulate fantasy points. However, I just don’t see it beneficial for you to target. Elias Petterson is an up and coming star in this league, and he is averaging 19.7 Fanduel points per game lately. So, there’s that. But, who are you going to stack him with and feel good about your chances? Boeser has some upside with his 3 goals lately, but he’s also $7000. I’m not spending $7000 and $7000 for these two in a game that shouldn’t score more than a couple goals either way…..and those goals could feasibly come from other lines. No thanks. Like I’ve echoed for 10 minutes now, I’ll be focused on the earlier games tonight.
5 star plays – not
4 star plays – with
Deeper value – your
GPP Sleeper – money
I hope you enjoyed my evolution towards having fun with you at the end here. These back-end games are really drab. And, it’s just not wise to chase them even in some long shot gpps. You will do far better in all of DFS NHL if you focus on what you know and the teams that are supposed to score. Winning at DFS is about sticking to the fundamentals and a repeatable process. You could literally have ignored most of those last 5 games and not ruined your chances tonight in the least. Thank you for humoring me, though. Let’s get to some stacks.
Favorite NHL DFS Stacks for Tonight…
What is NHL without stacking?!
TBL PP1 – Palat/Miller/Kucherov – $18,300 FD/$15,800 – 73.5 FD ppg L5/18.8 DK ppg L5 games.
NYR PP1 – Zibanejad/Zuccarello/Hayes – $19,000 FD/$18,100 DK – 8 goals, 9 assists, 46 shots in L10 games.
SJS combo – Pavelski/Meier/Kane – $20,700 FD/$19,900 DK – 8 goals, 8 assists, 49 shots L5 games.
GPP Sleeper stack = OTT combo – Stone/Tkachuk/Chabot – Slightly to well under the radar tonight. Watch news for Duchene being traded. If so, the correlations here may be broken up. You get two skaters on the 2nd line here and two other skaters on the top power play unit for $17,100 on FD and $17,700 on DK. This combined stack has 8 goals, 9 assists, and 54 shots over it’s last 5 games for a whopping 3.74X value on FD. When we are looking for around 2x, that’s a smash savings!
Truth be told, we could list stack after stack after stack on this massive slate. There are a few off the top of my head I plan to use. However, think correlation and get creative. Don’t just stack the PIT1 because it’s convenient. Dig into our tools and research and uncover those sniper values that push your ceiling over the edge tonight!
Hopefully, those pointers get you started in your research. I will be bouncing in and out of our NHL coaching room all day, with the rest of our coaches, to guide anyone with questions. I plan to drop a slate video showing our research process most days, and with a little time, our VIPs request shorter, strategy videos to help them shore up fundamentals, too. All free videos can be found on my YouTube channel, but all VIP videos need the key to unlock the vault.
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I hope to see you inside soon. Have a blessed day.
