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NHL DFS Matchup Rankings L10 Games
Last 10 games. Home teams in white, away in gray. GF = Goals For, GA = Goals Against. MU Score is a combined metric showing how one matchup tonight compares to the others on paper. Green is good, red is bad. We are looking for the best matchups of teams scoring goals facing teams allowing goals. Not exactly rocket science, so don’t overthink it.
Chicago Blackhawks @ Detroit Red Wings – Odds: DET -115, 6.5 o/u
Chicago is on a roll. No doubt there. Scoring 4.6 goals per game over their last 10 clearly leads this slate, and by miles, the strongest matchup on the slate coming in at a 7.5 MU Score. Players like Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Dylan Strome, and Alex DeBrincat headline this offense and all overlap on the top power play unit. A hot unit like this allows us such DFS freedom. We can mix and match at will and focus on Kane/Toews for tighter, gpp type correlation. Or, we can use Kane/DeBrincat for two line coverage and a little safety for a hybrid or cash type lineup construction. Erik Gustafsson has done the most damage while on the power play with other value plays mixing in with these top players to complete stacks. Focusing on the PP1 has been a very consistent, cash safe tactic since before the All Star Break a couple of weeks ago.
5 star plays – Any correlation stack of any combination of CHI’s PP1. (For correlation tips, see our NHL Strategy Section)
4 star plays – Brent Seabrook, Duncan Keith
Deeper value – Dominik Kahun, Brandon Saad
GPP Sleeper – Nothing here is very sneaky
On the Detroit side, the matchup might not be pristine, but it isn’t exactly weak, either. Chicago is generous on defense (allowing 3.5 goals per game over their last 10) and the situation can lead to a shootout tonight if all goes right. Are you willing to gamble? If so, your most active point producer the last 4 weeks has easily been stud Dylan Larkin with 4 goals, 4 assists, on 33 shots for a total of 139 Fanduel points for just under a 14 ppg average. Andreas Athanasiou (AA in our coaching forums for easier spelling) contributes, but I typically like him better when not on the 3rd scoring line, so watch for lineups to lock in or consult our NHL coaching channel. Luke Glendening makes a viable value center with 3 goals and 2 assists of his own over the same span. I don’t see much in the way of contributing defensemen, but you can almost always correlate with anyone on the top power play should you choose to ride that train of thought.
5 star plays – Dylan Larkin
4 star plays – Andreas Athanasiou
Deeper value – Luke Glendening, Mike Green, Thomas Vanek
GPP Sleeper – You might get away with a DET2 type stack being underowned
Winnipeg Jets @ Colorado Avalanche – Odds: WPG -115, 6.5 o/u
Winnipeg draws our third strongest matchup tonight (6.8 MU Score) with a leaky Avalanche defense giving 3.5 goals against per game. However, Winnipeg typically has stronger home splits than road, so that bears a little caution. Winnipeg rolls a few solid lines of highly talented players, and is more than capable of scoring in bunches and quickly. Prices in DFS NHL are running high on these studs across both Fanduel and Draftkings, but focusing on the hotter producers is your pathway to valuetown. Mark Scheifele leads the Jets with 9 points in 11 games while centering the top line and top power play. Most times, Jets points flow through his stick. Being on the road, though, you can focus on the 2nd scoring line of Laine, Little, and Roslovic and hope to catch a little lightning in a bottle. Laine does overlap the top power play with the bigger guns and has a slate-breaking ceiling if he can shake his current funk.
5 star plays – Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler,
4 star plays – Jacob Trouba, Kyle Connor, Bryan Little
Deeper value – Tyler Myers, Brandon Tanev
GPP Sleeper – Patrick Laine
Colorado draws a defense in Winnipeg that can be incredibly leaky and inconsistent, but the Avalanche can’t seem to get their own boat in the water right now, much less get it pointed downwind. Everyone loves the big stud top line of Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, and Mikko Rantanen, but not a single one of them are averaging even 4.0 Draftkings points per game right now…..and that is almost unheard of for this squad. I have a hard time recommending any of them at these prices, but I can’t help but think they will snap out of it at any moment. Play them in tourneys and take your chances, but wait for signs of life in cash formats.
5 star plays – I really can’t recommend anyone outside of tournament plays at this time.
4 star plays – See above
Deeper value – See above
GPP Sleeper – COL1 full line stack mentioned above, JT Compher, Tyson Barrie
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New York Islanders @ Calgary Flames – Odds CGY -150, 6 o/u
Not a lot to see in the Islanders right now. No offense to speak of with only 23 goals scored in their last 10 games. Calgary doesn’t typically play a strong defense, but they have been ok of late. Even matched up against the Flames, I don’t see the Islanders getting a lot cooking tonight, and I won’t be focused on much outside of individual plays due to the shorter slate and limited other options.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Ryan Pulock
Deeper value – Casey Cizikas
GPP Sleeper – NYI2 stack
Calgary is usually a team to target, but if you noticed their MU Score tonight, it’s squashed by the elite defense of the New York Islanders. The Isles were last year’s targets, but this year they are a team to be avoided, especially right now. The last time New York gave up 4 goals was back on November 15th!! And, since then, they have only allowed 3 goals seven times. It’s just not a great matchup for Calgary, and I’d largely avoid Flames skaters, but you will see people will play them in cash and tournament formats. I’d rather limit exposure and focus elsewhere because they aren’t cash safe in this matchup and they aren’t low enough owned to be considered contrarian. Actually, Derek Ryan might be worth a mention being on the inexpensive side and producing 2 goals, 6 assists, and 104 Fanduel points in his last 9 games…..good for 3rd most productive on the team.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Elias Lindholm, Mark Giordano
Deeper value – Derek Ryan, maybe Elias Lindholm being he is a little underpriced and usually overlooked
GPP Sleeper – none worth focusing on
Boston Bruins @ Las Vegas Golden Knights – Odds VGK -125, 5.5 o/u
Our hammer game contains some chalk in the Bruins, but my hope is this moneyline and game total out of the sportsbooks puts a little bit of a lid on the matchup. I’m also hoping people think BOS has been on the road forever and has to be tired rather than noticing how good this road trip has been. Boston has been way out west for 3 consecutive games and won all three, including a bit of a shootout with the powerful Sharks offense last game out. The Bruins have won 5 in a row, and they have only lost one game in the month of February, outscoring opponents 34-19 this month. They draw our 2nd highest MU Score at 6.9 and face a middling Golden Knights defense. Our higher powered top line, which contains well over 50% of the production on the team, is in a great spot. Patrice Bergeron leads the way there over the last 11 games with 7 goals and 8 assists on a very high 43 shots. But, the 2nd scoring unit has also been doing a ton of damage on this road trip and they contain the value, as pointed out in our NHL Research Station. Like Chicago, you can stack scoring lines or play the mix and match game focusing on the power plays depending on your contest format of choice.
5 star plays – Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand
4 star plays – David Krejci, Jake DeBrusk, Torey Krug
Deeper value – Charlie McAvoy, Danton Heinen (if on the top line)
GPP Sleeper – none…Boston will be pretty obvious
The Golden Knights aren’t this bad most nights, but they are likely running into a buzz saw in this matchup. As stated above, Boston has only allowed 19 goals against this month. Targeting them in fantasy makes some sense, because they do have some talent, but only because this is a 4 game slate and we don’t have many options when seeking lower ownership. On a larger slate, targeting this kind of matchup is just stupid. Bear that in mind if you decide to roll the dice here.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – maybe a Max Pacioretty?
Deeper value – possibly a Shea Theodore?
GPP Sleeper – I suppose you can manufacture a stack here and hope to strike lightning, but it’s just -EV too often for me.
For another angle on the NHL DFS slate, check out MDell’s Puck Drop!
Favorite NHL DFS Stacks for Tonight…
What is NHL without stacking?!
CHI2 – DeBrincat/Strome/Kahun – $17,200 FD/$17,200 DK, 8 goals, 16 assists on 38 shots in last 5 games.
BOS2 – DeBrusk/Krejci/Krug – $17,200 FD/$$15,800 DK, 7 goals, 15 assists on 30 shots L5.
BOS1 – Marchand/Bergeron/Heinen – $20,500 FD/$18,800 DK, 5 goals, 12 assists on 28 shots….expensive, huh?
GPP Sleeper stack = DET1 – With all eyes surely on Chicago and Boston tonight, Detroit’s top unit of Tyler Bertuzzi, Dylan Larkin, and Anthony Mantha will cost you $15,800 on FanDuel and $16,900 on Draftkings, but has delivered 4 goals, 5 assists and 44 shots over the last 5 games. It’s never a bad idea to get under the higher, chalkier ITT teams on the night and take someone just a smidge off the radar in hopes you catch right, the chalk falls a little flat, and you scoop the gpps through ownership leverage.
Hopefully, those pointers get you started in your research. I will be bouncing in and out of our NHL coaching room all day, with the rest of our coaches, to guide anyone with questions. I plan to drop a slate video showing our research process most days, and with a little time, our VIPs request shorter, strategy videos to help them shore up fundamentals, too. All free videos can be found on my YouTube channel, but all VIP videos need the key to unlock the vault.
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I hope to see you inside soon. Have a blessed day.
