Welcome to the DFS Army NHL Game Break!! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I’m your buddy @Choppodong and you can find me on both Twitter and YouTube with supplemental commentary and teaching. But, you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic hockey maneuvers across all our main sports. If you are looking for it, we cover it! Follow me, watch me, interact with me, I welcome it all.
NHL DFS Matchup Rankings L10 Games
Last 10 games sample size. Home teams in white, away in gray. GF = Goals For, GA = Goals Against. MU Score is a combined metric showing how one matchup tonight compares to the others on paper. Green is good, red is bad. We are looking for the best matchups of teams scoring goals facing teams allowing goals. Not exactly rocket science, so don’t overthink it. PPMU is known only to our VIPs…
My plan is to describe the games some and drop quality players in these lists. You will get my player pool (VIPs might get bonus plays in our coaching forums later). My cash players are those I would happily use in head-to-head formats, 5050 contests, small leagues, and even some larger leagues. They will anchor my lineups in all formats and contain a lot of value plays and/or punts. The core gets you to the dance. The slightly funky plays off your core push you into the gpp money. Your core is everything! Even gpp-only players need a core of solid production to build from.
San Jose Sharks @ Boston Bruins
Odds: BOS -125, 6 o/u leaning over…
San Jose draws a tougher matchup tonight with the heavy hitting Bruins. The Bruins have lost only two games this month, both by shootout, and carry a 2.2 goals against average in their last 10 matchups. I’m not targeting Sharks tonight with 11 games worth of options. Goalie – Not really safe, either.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash gamers – none
GPP Sleeper – none for me, but I’m sure there are some viable one-offs should you care to dig a little deeper. I focus on better games and recommend you do the same.
Boston doesn’t have some cherry matchup, either. The Bruins have been scoring (so has San Jose), but neither team is giving up a lot against right now. However, earlier in the month, SJS was a target for our offensive skaters. I’m fine with using some Bruins in gpps. Goalie – I think we can do better than the projected Halak when it comes to an offense that can score, and again, we have plenty of options across the slate tonight.
5 star plays – DeBrusk (W)
4 star plays – Krejci (C), Krug (D), McAvoy (D)
Cash gamers – none in this matchup
GPP Sleeper – large slates spread out ownership, it’s not as necessary to “fade chalk” tonight. Instead, focus on making the best lineup possible.
Calgary Flames @ New York Islanders
Odds: NYI -115, 6 o/u leaning under…
Calgary has been up and down a bit lately and has yet to regain their top scoring form. However, that CGY2 of Backlund/Lindholm and either Frolik or Bennett has been very productive, especially on the road. Another horrible matchup vs NYI, but might actually fall into the sneaky category after I just told you not to worry about it. Goalie – I’m not in the habit of taking underdogs on the road.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash gamers – none
GPP Sleeper – CGY2 stacked
New York has some value plays producing lately, but again, here we go with another defense to avoid……..but one that has been blown up recently enough we can consider them in the larger field gpps. The trick here, however, is that NYI isn’t nearly the offense BOS is and might not contain gpp-winning upside most nights…..making them an even longer shot to pay off. Goalie – The Islanders are a shot-suppression team, and most matchups put Lehner into consideration, but not this one tonight. CGY can erupt on anyone, giving this one too much risk for an 11 game slate.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash gamers – none
GPP Sleeper – One-offs…..Pulock (D) and Nelson (C) don’t correlate. Devon Toews (D) is still dirt cheap.
Buffalo Sabres @ Philadelphia Flyers
Odds: PHI -160, 6.5 …leaning under
The Buffalo side of this game isn’t great. They just aren’t scoring a ton, but they do have productive names like Eichel (great cash game play most nights), Skinner (lots of upside, especially stacked with Eichel), Ristolainen (offensive minded defense), and Dahlin (another offensive defenseman). Sam Reinhart also brings mediocre value often, but I prefer him cheaper. We don’t have a high enough MU Score (58) to get me excited outside of gpps. Goalie – Nope. You will find most nights I focus only on a very few goalies. Most are useless to me.
5 star plays – Eichel (C), Reinhart (W)
4 star plays – Dahlin (D), Skinner (W)
Cash gamers – Eichel, Reinhart, Dahlin
GPP Sleeper – any correlated stack of Sabres
Philadelphia is finally the first team on the slate I can tell you to focus some of your energy on! 6.5 MU Score rates top5 on the slate of 22 teams. Neither team is providing a great individual matchup, but the collective mediocrity puts PHI in a solid spot to target by default. God bless being “average!” Goalie– Brian Elliott isn’t the worst option on the slate, and he has a good bit of shutout upside for gpps. But, I’m still focusing on others for cash type contests.
5 star plays – Coutrier (C)
4 star plays – Lindblom (W), Konecny (W), Voracek (W)
Cash gamers – Coutrier, Lindblom, Sanheim (D)
GPP Sleeper – again, any correlated stack unless otherwise noted from nearly any team unless otherwise noted.
Ottawa Senators @ Washington Capitals
Odds: WAS -345, 6.5 leaning under…
Ottawa gave away pieces at the deadline leading to a disastrous underdog situation tonight at a -300+. Remember the jinx! However, I’m not feeling this miracle and won’t be taking advantage. The Kings almost worked last night vs Tampa Bay, and you had productive, low-owned players as a result. This might be similar, so sack up and stack up if you dare. Goalie – I can’t stress how much I’m avoiding this spot with a goalie.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Tkachuk (W)
Cash gamers – none
GPP Sleeper – only for the most contrarian at heart
Washington offers our highest MU Score of the night at 6.9. That’s nothing to scream from the mountaintops about, though. We routinely see mid 7s and even low 8s when a matchup is seriously flashing green lights. That means, while in the “best spot” tonight, the slate is rather wide open to possibilities. You might run over to YouTube and look for my MME Analysis video because this is a good night to MME. Ovechkin can break a slate, but the other Caps are worth stacking with him, especially the power play unit containing him with Kuznetsov, Backstrom, Oshie, and Carlson. Tom Wilson is no surprise name, but Lars Eller or Brett Connolly can be weird solo plays that serve as a decent upside no one ever uses. Goalie – I think we are looking at our cash goalie simply by facing a depleted Ottawa roster with very few intimidating pieces and honestly very little reason outside of pride to even fight. Holtby is projected, and carries a 21-16-4 record into the game. I don’t expect a ton of shots, but WAS sometimes plays defense like James Harden, so stranger things have happened.
5 star plays – Ovechkin (W), Carlson (D)
4 star plays – Backstrom (C), Wilson (W), Connolly (W), Vrana (W)
Cash gamers – Ovechkin, Carlson, borderlin Wilson
GPP Sleeper – none unless heading for that third line
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Los Angeles Kings @ Carolina Hurricanes
Odds: CAR -270, 5.5 leaning under…
Los Angeles almost pulled off the upset vs the Lightning last night. Can they make a run at Carolina tonight? Maybe, but I’m not betting on it. 2.8 goals for in their last ten games just isn’t much to call mom about. Add on the worst part…….Carolina is only giving 1.5 goals against in that same span with three shutouts and three one-goal allowed games. Ummm, stay far, far away from Kings skaters tonight. Even if they go off, they shouldn’t be owned highly enough to hurt you. Goalie – Again….nope.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash gamers – none
GPP Sleeper – just because it sort of worked last night doesn’t mean you double down on the longshot again tonight in the name of ownership. Ownership will be lower across the slate as a whole being 11 games. Last night was 6 games…..huge difference.
Here is our other chalk matchup tonight. Carolina gets LAK on a road b2b and possibly after spending everything they had to try and upset Tampa Bay last night. I’m not saying LA will fall flat. I’m saying the Hurricanes are in a great spot led by Aho, Tervainen, Williams, Niederreiter, Faulk, Ferland, and I’m sure I left someone out, but they are almost all in play. Goalie – No, Petr Mrazek isn’t some stud goalie. But, as CAR wins, he wins…..and CAR should win tonight.
5 star plays – Williams (W)
4 star plays – Faulk (D), Niederreiter (W), Teravainen (W), Aho (C), Wallmark (C)
Cash gamers – Williams, Faulk, Neiderreiter, Wallmark, Slavin (D), Svechnikov (W)
GPP Sleeper – none unless you combine a Teravainen with an Aho or something the crosses lines and correlates on a PP.
Pittsburgh Penguins @ Columbus Blue Jackets
Odds: CBJ -150, 6.5 leaning hard on the over!
Pittsburgh can do damage in any matchup, but I’d rather see them firing on all cylinders when they run into a tougher matchup on the road. Columbus is that tougher matchup right now being the manned up on the trade deadline, and they are only allowing 2.1 goals against in their last 10 games. This squelches PIT’s MU Score down to 5.1 an takes them right off my radar outside of smaller slates and gpps. Goalie – I don’t think so.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash gamers – none…I don’t like higher floors just for higher floors. I also want ceilings and this isn’t a high frequency ceiling matchup.
GPP Sleeper – Of course any PIT stack can go off….and this might be the night to run a Malkin or Crosby-centric stack out being not as many will play them.
Columbus is, however, squarely on our radar tonight. PIT can be leaky at 3.5 goals against L10 and the Blue Jackets are riding some momentum right now. 6.7 on the MU Score is in the top teams for the slate and will get a lot of my attention. Duchene, Panarin, and Atkinson are just the big names, but I’ll be looking for others, as well. Goalie – I’m not sure I want Bobrovsky facing Pittsburgh even with the roll he’s on right now. I’d rather stick with safer options. That said, load him up in your gpps. He’s in play there.
5 star plays – Duchene (C)
4 star plays – Atkinson (W), Dzingel (W), Anderson (W), Jenner (W), Dubois (C)
Cash gamers – they all have great upside, but are a bit rocky for pure cash game play
GPP Sleeper – none
Montreal Canadiens @ Detroit Red Wings
Odds: MTL -130, 6 leaning under…
Montreal fakes us out again with another great MU Score of 6.6. Detroit has been pretty forgiving allowing 3.8 goals against; therefore, maybe tonight is finally the night Montreal rewards us. They have tons of value in their stacking counterparts, but their inconsistencies in great matchups make it harder and harder to keep going back to the well. Goalie – I have better options tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Domi (C), Gallagher (W), Tatar (W), Byron (W), Shaw (W)
Cash gamers – Tatar, Domi
GPP Sleeper – Joel Armia (W)
Detroit’s offense was a focal point of ours a week or two ago, but has started to disappear. 2.7 goals for over 10 games just isn’t going to get it done. There might be some tourney plays here, but cash games are starting to incur risk now that pricing caught their hot streak and they’ve cooled off…..evne though they still hit the radars. Pricing trails production in DFS and it pays to stop chasing hot streaks once they inevitably end. Goalie – nope.
5 star plays – Mantha (W), Larkin (C)….currently still “5 star plays” based on their recent outburst
4 star plays – Green (D), Athanasiou (W), Bertuzzi (W)
Cash gamers – Mantha, Athanasiou, Bertuzzi, Green…..odd that many are still so consistent as the team falls off, but it is what it is.
GPP Sleeper – perhaps some stacks, and they will be underowned for sure.
Nashville Predators @ St. Louis Blues
Odds: STL -160, 5.5 leaning under…
Nashville comes into St. Louis loaded with new acquisitions and likely pissed off at the Blues winning their recent home and home weekend series. I’m not predicting some Nashville ass-whipping, and I don’t even think this game is viable for much DFS action. But, I do want to watch it. We should see a low scoring, playoff type game with a lot of finishing of body checks and flared tempers. Goalie – Probably won’t kill your lineup, but I don’t see upside in it.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash gamers – none
GPP Sleeper – none unless you really want to gamble
Same goes for St. Louis. The Blues do draw a little better matchup, but are starting to ride inflated numbers about to drop off the backend of their 10 game samples. Injuries, flu, and just the general regression to the mean are taking their toll on the former “hottest team in the league.” Goalie – nope, but probably more upside with shutout potential than the Nashville side.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – maybe the upside of a Tarasenko or O’Reilly, and the defensemen that shoot are cheap enough they might still be gpp playable.
Cash gamers – none
GPP Sleeper – Tarasenko/O’Reilly can really do damage, but that’s about it and it’s a long shot for a high ceiling night.
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Minnesota Wild @ Winnipeg Jets
Odds: WPG -150, 6 leaning under…
Minnesota traded some key pieces and were only scoring 2.3 goals per 10 games before the trades. Maybe their numbers improve, and they do have a nice matchup with WPG allowing 3.9 goals in their L10 numbers. However, the MIN offense isn’t something I’m looking to first on an 11 game slate. On smaller slates, I might consider this game, though. Goalie – not as a -150 dog.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Parise (W), Donato (W), Staal (C), Spurgeon (D)
Cash gamers – none
GPP Sleeper – Donato
Winnipeg is a high powered offense, but have been struggling lately. 2.5 goals for is going to come back up sooner rather than later. Tonight? Not sure. MIN can be defensive in nature and that doesn’t help matters. But, I will say Patrick Laine is a great gpp option and is really heating up. Goalie – Hellebuck is viable on smaller slates or as a main slate gpp play, but I think you know my favorite goalies are mentioned earlier in the article.
5 star plays – Laine (W), Wheeler (W)
4 star plays – Connor (W), Trouba (D), Tanev (W)
Cash gamers – Connor, Laine, Trouba
GPP Sleeper – Laine, especially stacked with Wheeler/Trouba
Florida Panthers @ Arizona Coyotes
Odds: ARI -135, 6 leaning under…
The Florida matchup is the best of these final four teams. I’m not excited about it as ARI isn’t exactly a horrible defensive team. They allow under 3 goals per game on the average and, while Florida is running a little hot, this matchup still doesn’t rate as strongly on the slate as a whole. It is, however, a cherry matchup on the final slates of the night….and should be stacked up accordingly. Goalie – Probably not where I’m looking on any slate.
5 star plays – Barkov (C) is just too hot to ignore right now
4 star plays – Huberdeau (W), Hoffman (W), Yandle (D), Dadanov (W)
Cash gamers – Huberdeau, Hoffman, Barkov, Dadanov
GPP Sleeper – any of the PP1 guys in gpps are perfect sleepers for gpps
Arizona is a funny team. They are always sneaky at home, no matter the year they are having. And, they are always underowned, too. I tend to keep them as one-off plays on larger slates, but am not afraid to stack them on smaller slates. Goalie – Probably not except as gpp consideration on the late slate.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Galyenchuk (W), Stepan (C), Chychrun (D), Archibald (W), Goligoski (D),
Cash gamers – many as one-offs are fine because they are just so cheap, but you have to hit on them if going away from a more consistent offense tonight
GPP Sleeper – ARI tends to go off at home randomly. The 4-star plays aren’t bad when correlated.
Dallas Stars @ Vegas Golden Knights
Odds: VGK -200, 5.5 leaning under…
Dallas hasn’t scored well in a long time, and I’m not about to think they will tonight. But, on the later slates, we don’t have a lot to work with and need to consider them as fillers or as having the potential to go off and win a small slate. Goalie – Not a terrible late night pivot off what should be Vegas goalie chalk. But, that is a late-slate move, not a main slate move.
5 star plays – Lindell (D), Spezza (C), Radulov (W)
4 star plays – Seguin (C)
Cash gamers – Radulov, Lindell are viable on the main slate as cash safe plays, too
GPP Sleeper – not really interested
Vegas brings down the hammer, but Dallas isn’t giving up a lot of goals most times. We might be catching them on their heels here in that they have allowed 3.2 goals against lately. We need to rely, though, on the Marchessaults, Karlssons, Smiths of the world to give us the value we need on a big slate tonight and I don’t know that we can. I’d rather save them for the later slates where we have fewer options. Goalie – gpp viable on the main slate, but probably late slate chalk.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Smith (W), Karlsson (C), Marchessault (W), Pacioretty (W)
Cash gamers – Smith
GPP Sleeper – I’m not counting on them rising up to put a serious whoopin’ on a defensive team like Dallas, personally. But, on the later slate, anything is viable due to having no options.
Here is a one game view of our NHL Research Station matchup page. My daily videos typically walk you through this page and point out how I quickly decipher the best plays on the slate. When you unlock access to this page, you get team stats with large and small sample sizes to pick up trends, all the basis statistics, pricing, scoring lines, power play lines, scoring production including shots and blocks, and you get it all in one easy to read view. But, you only get it as a VIP. 99% of the stats I reference are directly from this single page. Your research has never been easier!!
Favorite NHL DFS Stacks for Tonight…
What is NHL without stacking?!
CAR PP1 – Williams, Niederreiter, Faulk
WAS PP1 – Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, Carlson
MTL2 – Domi, Tatar, Shaw
PHI2 – Coutrier, Lindblom, Voracek
CBJ1 – Duchene, Atkinson, Panarin
GPP Sleeper stack = CGY2 – I still like the Backlund/Frolik/Lindholm line a lot. If Bennet swaps in, I’m fine rolling him in there, too. But, like anything on this slate, the analysis isn’t quite as necessary because if you are winning a gpp, you had to hit your primary stack really, really hard. And, that is just black and white truth.
Hopefully, those pointers get you started in your research. I will be bouncing in and out of our NHL coaching room all day, with the rest of our coaches, to guide anyone with questions. I plan to drop a slate video showing our research process most days, and with a little time, our VIPs request shorter, strategy videos to help them shore up fundamentals, too. All free videos can be found on my YouTube channel, but all VIP videos need the key to unlock the vault.
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I hope to see you inside soon. Have a blessed day.
