Welcome to the DFS Army NBA Game Break! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the game break/core 4. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Last night consisted of yet another hectic lock, as James Harden and Karl-Anthony Towns were ruled essentially 2 minutes after lock. Our coaches forums were all over the news and were able to get members the last second help that was needed last night. We’ve got a small little three-game slate on deck for this evening so let’s get it started!
NBA Game Break:
Orlando Magic @ Toronto Raptors
Vegas Total: 218.5
Vegas Spread: Tor -9.0
Pace: Orl +2.4
This slate kicks off at 3:30 ET so make sure to get those lineups in on time! We will start with the Magic, Aaron Gordon’s price is pretty steady around the industry these days. Many may not realize that the Raptors rank 20th in defense against opposing small forwards and 29th against opposing power forwards. I would consider Gordon a hybrid of the two, he’s been fairly consistent scoring at least 30 in the past three games. You can do worse than Gordon on this slate. Nikola Vucevic is probably I won’t have much of here, he draws a tough matchup with Marc Gasol and his priced around where he should be. Finally, by now you know the story with Evan Fournier and Terrance Ross. Ross for gpp and Fournier for cash, they’re both priced up a bit so I’m not making either of them a priority, however.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: D.J. Augustin
GPP Sleeper: Terrance Ross
From the Raptors, Kyle Lowry is playing pretty good basketball right now. He’s gone over 40 fantasy points in three of his last five games and draws a nice matchup here with the Magic. The problem with the Raptors now is, they have so many pieces that demand usage that it’s hard to predict who will have the best game on any given night, much like the Warriors. Kawhi Leonard is averaging 1.33 fantasy points per minute on the season and draws a matchup against a middle of the road team against small forwards. We have very few studs on this slate, so he may make for an intriguing option. As for Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka, and Pascal Siakam, my favorite option is probably Siakam. He will see the most minutes of the three and Gasol will likely see the least. Danny Green is never really a guy that I fall on, but he makes for a fine value play on a short slate.
**Update: Kawhi Leonard has been ruled OUT**
- With Kawhi now ruled out we can give most of this offense a boost. Here is how things shake out for the players impacted the most with Kawhi Leonard off the floor…
- Kyle Lowry – 20.4% usage; 1.34 fantasy points per minute
- Pascal Siakam – 32.8% usage; 1.41 fantasy points per minute
- Serge Ibaka – 26.9% usage; 1.51 fantasy points per minute
With Kawhi off the floor it makes Lowry, Siakam, and Ibaka all 5-star plays with my favorite being Siakam. Siakam scored nearly 70 Draftkings points in the Raptors last game without Kawhi. While Siakam is my favorite, stacking the Raptors may not be a bad idea today.
5-star play: Kyle Lowry, Pascal Siakam, Serge Ibaka
4-star play: Jeremy Lin, Marc Gasol
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Danny Green
GPP Sleeper: Marc Gasol
If you’re looking to create multiple lineups using your player pool, head on over to the Domination Station. This link will give you a quick tutorial on how to use the optimizer. The Domination Station is a great way to incorporate our projections with your own player pool to produce ideal lineups to help you play like an expert!
Los Angeles Clippers @ Denver Nuggets
Vegas Total: 233.0
Vegas Spread: Den -9.0
Pace: Den +3.7
This game features the highest total on the slate, so let’s see if we can take advantage of that. Starting with the Clippers, JaMychal Green makes for a pretty decent value play on this slate. He has gone for over 20 fantasy points in two of his last three games. He won’t see a ton of minutes, but that’s baked into his price tag. Ivica Zubac draws a pretty difficult matchup here with Nikola Jokic, I would limit my exposure to him to gpp’s only. Danilo Gallinari draws the best matchup of the starters, the Nuggets rank 28th in defense against opposing small forwards. It’s also a revenge spot for Gallinari, I don’t know how much it matters, but I’ll put it out there anyway. Gallinari has averaged 30 fantasy points per game against the Nuggets in three games this season, it’s not awful but we will look for him to be a little better than that today. Montrezl Harrell is right there with Zubac, I don’t love targeting big men against the Nuggets so I’ll leave him for gpp as well. Finally, Lou Williams is priced at a reasonable price and draws a pretty decent matchup. The Nuggets rank 22nd against shooting guards on the season, Lou is in pretty good form as he has gone over 35 fantasy points in his last three games.
5-star play: Lou Williams, Danilo Gallinari
4-star play: JaMychal Green
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: JaMychal Green
GPP Sleeper: Ivica Zubac, Montrezl Harrell
From the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic is a lock for me on this slate. There is very few spend up options and Jokic is in a gorgeous spot against the Clippers. They rank 28th in defense against opposing centers and won’t have the size to combat Jokic down low. The Research Station loves Jokic just as much as I do today, it has him projected to 6.2x his price tag. I view 6x on a $10k much different than I view 6x from a $4k guy for obvious reasons, this is a phenomenal spot for Jokic today. Jamal Murray can be a frustrating player to roster, but he’s in a good spot today. The Clippers rank 26th in defense against point guards and this is a pace up spot for Nuggets. With limited options on today’s slate, Murray is certainly in play. Paul Millsap has seen his price skyrocket after going for 45+ fantasy points in his last two games. The problem with him is inconsistent minutes, he averages 1.08 fantasy points per minute on the year but half the time doesn’t see 30 minutes. I’ll label him a 4-star gpp play because of that but he’s in a good spot today. Will Barton is actually pretty interesting to me today, he has been getting minutes around the 30 point mark lately and has scored 32.75 Draftkings points in this matchup earlier this year. Isaiah Thomas is an interesting drop candidate for Fanduel, he averages 1.22 fantasy points per minute in his two games this year. He probably won’t play a whole lot of minutes, but we saw him get near 25 fantasy points last time out. This game has the highest total on the slate so don’t be afraid to stack it up in gpp’s!
5-star play: Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray
4-star play: Will Barton, Paul Millsap
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Isaiah Thomas
GPP Sleeper: Paul Millsap, Isaiah Thomas
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San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks
Vegas Total: 221.5
Vegas Spread: SA -8.5
Pace: SA +1.7
The Spurs travel to the garden to take on the Knicks in our final game of the slate. LaMarcus Aldridge stands out as a top play here due to his price. His home/road splits are a bit concerning given that he averages seven fewer points per game in road games. But, that shouldn’t keep you off of him in this spot, the Research Station likes him to almost 6x his price tag. DeMar DeRozan has seen quite the price bump since his last time out against his old team. The price bump could be due to the matchup, however, the Knicks rank 21st in defense against opposing shooting guards on the year. DeRozan is averaging around 35 minutes per game at about 1.14 fantasy points per minute, I wouldn’t let the price stop you from playing him in this spot. Rudy Gay feels too cheap for this matchup, he’s also in great form. Over his last 10 games, he is averaging 33 Draftkings points per game. Marco Belinelli makes for a sensible value play and a drop candidate on Fanduel. He’s coming off a great game against the Raptors where he dropped 32.5 Draftkings points in 31 minutes, maybe he can stay hot here against the Knicks.
5-star play: LaMarcus Aldridge, Rudy Gay, DeMar DeRozan
4-star play: Marco Belinelli
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Marco Belinelli
GPP Sleeper: None
From the Knicks side, I wish we knew who was going to see the bulk of the minutes at point guard because I would be all over them. If you’ve learned anything from my articles or coaching is that I love attacking the Spurs with point guards. The Spurs rank 29th against opposing point guards on the season and I feel like that gets overlooked. Emmanuel Mudiay and Dennis Smith Jr. are a little too risky for cash, Mudiay not as much since he’s lower priced, but I like them for gpp. If you’re making multiple lineups, feel free to mix and match these guys because one of them will have a nice game. To be honest, this whole team is strictly gpp plays because we don’t know what David Fizdale is going to do with his rotations on any given basis. Keep an eye out for a starting lineup, but I like whoever is starting between Luke Kornet and Noah Vonleh as value plays. The one guy that has been pretty consistent (other than the last game) has been Mitchell Robinson. He’s gone over 20 fantasy points in eight of his last ten games. Kevin Knox is the one guy that feels like he’s guaranteed to see big minutes, he’s probably my favorite cash game play along with Mudiay if you feel the need to have some Knicks in your cash lineups.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Emmanuel Mudiay, Kevin Knox, Mitchell Robinson
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Luke Kornet, Noah Vonleh
GPP Sleeper: Dennis Smith Jr.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the game break a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches. If you don’t know about them, our two newest pages contain Breaking News and our exclusive Coaches’ Picks……both invaluable for late breaking news and pivots in NBA.
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