Welcome to the DFS Army NBA Game Break! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the game break/core 4. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Last night was one of the crazier locks of the season with Luka Doncic and Karl-Anthony Towns getting ruled out right before the lock. But, we were all over that news in the coaching forums, breaking down who was impacted the most by the two scratches. We can focus on yesterday for too long, as we have a massive 11 game slate on deck for tonight, so let’s get started!
NBA Game Break:
Memphis Grizzlies @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: 202.0
Vegas Spread: Cle -2.0
Pace: Memphis +1.0
We start the breakdown with a pretty blah game to be completely honest. These are two of the slowest and worst teams in basketball, but we’ll give it a shot. Starting with Memphis, Chandler Parsons and C.J. Miles are expected to be active tonight which just muddies up the water even more. Neither of them is particularly interesting in terms of fantasy production for the time being, as they both went for under 10 fantasy points last night. The most intriguing guy from this team is Mike Conley, the Cavaliers are ranked 29th in defense against opposing point guards in terms of fantasy production on the year. Conley is coming off a 50 point game last night so maybe he can keep things going and give us something to look at in this game. The other guy I wanted to touch on is Avery Bradley, he seems like a completely different player since being traded from the Clippers. He’s still priced down and has scored at least 25 draftkings points in his last three games including a 50 point game, you could do worse if you’re looking for a punt.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Mike Conley
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Avery Bradley
GPP Sleeper: Mike Conley
From the Cavaliers side of things, there really isn’t much here for this team in this matchup, to be honest. I’m going to make it really simple for you guys if you’re playing cash games and even gpp’s this team just isn’t worth attacking in this spot. I would have interest in Collin Sexton in a different matchup given his price, but given the total and Mike Conley defense, we can do much better. Really the only guy even to consider here is Brandon Knight on Fanduel, and that is for the deepest of punts.
5-star play: None
4-star play: None
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Brandon Knight
GPP Sleeper: None
If you’re looking to create multiple lineups using your player pool, head on over to the Domination Station. This link will give you a quick tutorial on how to use the optimizer. The Domination Station is a great way to incorporate our projections with your own player pool to produce ideal lineups to help you play like an expert!
Brooklyn Nets @ Charlotte Hornets
Vegas Total: 227.0
Vegas Spread: Cha -2.5
Pace: Charlotte +1.4
This game is much more appetizing from a fantasy standpoint. Starting with Brooklyn, my favorite play here is Jarrett Allen, draftkings especially. He’s priced under $5k and draws a matchup with Cody Zeller and company. Charlotte is ranked 25th in fantasy points given up against opposing centers, they just won’t have the size to slow Allen down. The only problem with Allen is he rarely gets to the thirty-minute mark which is a bit frustrating, but that’s baked into the price tag. I tried the Caris LeVert experiment last time out and it came back to bit me. He only ended up playing 21 minutes, with this team being so deep with their rotations I don’t have much trust in him for cash games. That’s really about it from the Nets, you can make a case for a Demarre Carroll value play on Draftkings given his price, but that’s about it. Oh and D’Angelo Russell always has some GPP appeal given his ability to put up points in a hurry, but not worth it in cash games.
5-star play: Jarrett Allen (Draftkings)
4-star play: None
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Demarre Carroll
GPP Sleeper: Caris LeVert, D’Angelo Russell
From the Charlotte side, Nicolas Batum was my savior last night putting up 39.5 draftkings points in 37 minutes. His price hasn’t really budged over the past couple of weeks and has been very consistent. I like Batum in this spot. Miles Bridges drew the start last night and played 29 minutes and scoring 29 fantasy points. I’m going to need to see it more before I cross that Bridge (sick bridge pun). Cody Zeller continues to produce, his price keeps climbing, however. But, as we know by now, centers against the Nets. I keep saying it but the Hornets always seem underpriced especially on Draftkings. Marvin Williams keeps producing as well and is still under $5k on Draftkings, I have no issue with going there. Finally, Kemba Walker, he has scored over 50 fantasy points in six of his last seven games, I prefer him more on Draftkings where he’s $9k but he makes for a decent GPP play on Fanduel.
5-star play: Nicolas Batum, Cody Zeller (Draftkings), Kemba Walker (Draftkings)
4-star play: Marvin Williams
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Miles Bridges (Fanduel Drop)
GPP Sleeper: Kemba Walker (Fanduel)
Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards
Vegas Total: 221.5
Vegas Spread: Even
Pace: Indiana +3.5
Starting with the Pacers side of things, Kyle O’Quinn and Domantas Sabonis were very popular last night and for good reason. If Myles Turner is out again tonight, we can go right back to the well on these two. Sabonis’s price went up a bit, but Kyle O’Quinn’s didn’t budge. The Research Station shows us that the Wizards rank 28th in defense against opposing power forwards and centers. If Myles Turner starts he’s priced pretty high, but I would have some interest in tournaments given his recent form. Whoever gets the start should have a good night in this one. The other guy I like here is Darren Collison, the Research Station has him projected to 5.6x his price tag. The Wizards rank 22nd in defense against opposing point guards and he’s a bit underpriced. You can also make a case for Tyreke Evans on Fanduel as a drop candidate given his price.
5 star play: Domantas Sabonis (If Turner is Out), Kyle O’Quinn (If he starts)
4 star play: Myles Turner (If Active), Darren Collison
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Kyle O’Quinn, Tyreke Evans
GPP Sleeper: Bojan Bogdanovic
From the Wizards side of things, Bradley Beal went completely bonkers last night scoring 67.5 fantasy points. Tonight’s matchup isn’t as kind for Beal, this is a pace down matchup and the Pacers rank 9th in defense against shooting guards. The defensive rating his helped by Victor Oladipo being off the floor, but I just don’t see this as another ceiling spot for Beal. Bobby Portis is playing well right now and the Wizards seem fine with giving him extended run. He’s priced pretty evenly across both sites, I don’t have an issue with him. Other than those two, the Wizards are priced pretty fairly and there really isn’t much I want to attack against a tough Pacers defense.
5 star play: None
4 star play: Bradley Beal, Bobby Portis
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: None
GPP Sleeper: Jabari Parker
Phoenix Suns @ Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Total: 233.0
Vegas Spread: Atl -3.0
Pace: Phoenix +3.9
Anytime I see the Hawks on the slate I get excited, stacking against them continues to work. They are fastest team in the league and play very little defense. With that in mind we start with the Suns, Devin Booker put up a 60 spot on these guys earlier on in the year and I’ll likely go back to the well here (spoiler, he makes my Core 4 today). The Hawks rank 26th in fantasy points given up to opposing shooting guards, Booker should be able to do what he pleases. Tyler Johnson finally showed up last game, scoring 30 draftkings points. I don’t think he’s a great basketball player, but given the spot he makes for a solid value play. With T.J. Warren off the floor this season here is how the usage breaks down for the three wing guys;
Josh Jackson – 26.8%; 1.03 fantasy points per minute
Kelly Oubre – 25.7%; 1.11 fantasy points per minute
Mikal Bridges – 13%; 0.73 fantasy points per minute
Of the three, Oubre is my favorite option (particularly on Fanduel) with Josh Jackson being a close second. DeAndre Ayton is priced pretty appropriately I won’t blame you if you want to go there.
5 star play: Devin Booker, Kelly Oubre, Josh Jackson
4 star play: Tyler Johnson, DeAndre Ayton
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Richaun Holmes
GPP Sleeper: None
From the Hawks, Kent Bazemore and DeAndre Bembry are still too cheap. If you need value both of them are solid options, not exciting by any means, but solid. I never play Taurean Prince just because he’s way too volatile, but he could make for a fine GPP play in this matchup. Trae Young continues to put up big numbers and should have no problem doing the same here, he’s probably my favorite play from this team. Lastly, John Collins just isn’t playing well right now and is a bit overpriced, I’ll wait until he’s in better form before I hop back on.
5 star play: Trae Young
4 star play: Kent Bazemore, DeAndre Bembry
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Kent Bazemore, DeAndre Bembry
GPP Sleeper: Taurean Prince
Los Angeles Lakers @ New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas Total:
Vegas Spread:
Pace: New Orleans +1.1
We’re still waiting on a total for this game, likely due to the Anthony Davis saga. But, we will start with the Lakers. The Research Station has the best point per dollar play on this team being JaVale McGee. It makes sense thinking that McGee will get a few extra run to try and slow down Anthony Davis and Julius Randle. The problem with McGee is his inconsistent minutes, he’s an elite 1.18 fantasy point per minute guy when he does play though. This is a pretty good spot for Kyle Kuzma who has been playing well lately, scoring 30+ fantasy points in three of his last four games. If Anthony Davis is out he should have no problem making plays on the offensive end. LeBron James is a fine option today, I’ll never talk you off of playing him, but I’ll likely head over and use a guy named Giannis or someone from the Thunder. In terms of value, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Reggie Bullock are the “3 and D” guys that could get hot at any moment. I would prefer KCP on Fanduel where you can drop him however.
5 star play: Kyle Kuzma
4 star play: JaVale McGee, LeBron James
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Reggie Bullock
GPP Sleeper: Rajon Rondo?
The Pelicans are a complete mess right now and I really don’t like taking risks on guys unless I have to. If Anthony Davis plays he’s still a fade for me as he could head to the bench at any time. Jrue Holiday is in the same boat as Davis. Cheick Diallo went off for 43.5 fantasy points the other night, so maybe we can look at him as a value play if he’s going to soak up the extra minutes. I like him a bit more on Fanduel though where you can drop him, I just don’t have confidence in anyone on this team for Draftkings cash games not to bust. Stanley Johnson is the stone minimum on both sites, he played 20 minutes in their last game but didn’t do a whole lot with them. Of the two I would prefer Diallo. If Anthony Davis is out entirely (back to back against the Lakers in which they didn’t want to do business with), Kenrich Williams is a very nice play. He would likely see minutes near 40 in this scenario. Julius Randle looks like he may have a minutes restriction as well as he didn’t go over the 25-minute mark either, so stay away from him.
5-star play: If Anthony Davis is OUT – Cheick Diallo, Kenrich Williams
4-star play: None
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Cheick Diallo, Stanley Johnson
GPP Sleeper: None
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Detroit Pistons @ Miami Heat
Vegas Total: 206.0
Vegas Spread: Mia -3.5
Pace: Detroit +0.1
This game features another lower total and I always cringe when I see the Heat on the schedule, but nonetheless. Starting with the Pistons, I’ve got a real bone to pick with Blake Griffin. After doing absolutely nothing for two and a half quarters last night, he decides to get himself ejected in the third quarter…. thanks bud. Luckily today is a new day, but this isn’t the greatest matchup for him and frankly may be a bit overpriced right now. Andre Drummond destroyed the Hawks last night, he draws a tougher matchup tonight, but he’s a whole $2,500 cheaper on Draftkings than on Fanduel which is crazy. I’m going to label him a 5-star play on Draftkings strictly because of his egregious price tag. Reggie Jackson went banana’s last night, but it was the Hawks and tonight is a much different story, now is a good time to jump off that train.
5-star play: Andre Drummond (Draftkings)
4-star play: None
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Wayne Ellington
GPP Sleeper: None… maybe Blake Griffin
From the Miami side, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Their rotations are so deep it’s difficult to predict their production on a nightly basis. Dion Waiters has been playing some pretty good basketball lately scoring 30+ draftkings points in three of his last four games and is probably my favorite play from this team. Keep an eye on Goran Dragic, if he is able to play he may take a small number of minutes from Waiters. They may need Hassan Whiteside to play some extra minutes to try and keep Drummond in check, but he only played 19 minutes in their first matchup… again hard to predict. Bam Adebayo and Kelly Olynyk both make for fine GPP plays but are nowhere near cash options.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Dion Waiters, Hassan Whiteside
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: None
GPP Sleeper: Bam Adebayo, Kelly Olynyk
Boston Celtics @ Chicago Bulls
Vegas Total: 221.0
Vegas Spread: Bos -10.5
Pace: Chicago +0.6
Before I break anything down here, I would like to personally thank Al Horford for scoring almost 70 fantasy points the other night, I appreciate the money. Speaking of Horford, he’s in a good spot here and really didn’t see much of a price boost on Draftkings. The Bulls have struggled with Centers all year long, so Horford will look to take advantage of that. Jayson Tatum has been playing good basketball as of late, this game does worry me a bit as it could get out of hand pretty quickly. In two matchups this year Tatum has only averaged 25 draftkings points per game, he’s not my favorite play but I also don’t hate him given his recent form. Gordon Hayward and Marcus Smart don’t do much for me in this matchup, it’s an eleven game slate we can find better plays. Lastly, I always prefer Kyrie in competitive games, he is a guy similar to Jimmy Butler where he plays up to his competition, so I’ll leave him as a gpp play in this one.
5-star play: Al Horford (Draftkings)
4-star play: Jayson Tatum
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: None
GPP Sleeper: Kyrie Irving
As for the Bulls, Otto Porter continues to produce ever since coming over from Washington. He’s scored at least 30 fantasy points in his last three games including a 50 point game against the Grizzlies. The whole team draws a pretty tough matchup, but if we’re looking at anyone Porter might be the guy. Kris Dunn’s price keeps falling, but he’s just not playing good basketball right now, there’s no reason to attack him on this slate. I still haven’t gotten used to $8k Lauri Markkanen but he’s been crushing it lately. Ever since the Bulls traded away Bobby Portis, they’ve been giving Markkanen some good run at the five and it is leading to fantasy production. He actually matches up well with Al Horford, so maybe he plays a little more five than usual, I like him here. Zach LaVine doesn’t do a whole lot for me in this matchup, I probably won’t have much, if any, of him tonight.
5-star play: Lauri Markkanen
4-star play: Otto Porter Jr.
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Wayne Selden
GPP Sleeper: None
Sacramento Kings @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Total: 239.0
Vegas Spread: OKC -7.0
Pace: Even
This game draws the highest total of the night (so far). These are two of the fastest teams in the league, so it could make for a good game stack if that is something you’re in to. Starting with the Kings, Bogdan Bogdanovic just can’t seem to get a price bump on Draftkings. He’s gone for at least 27.25 in four of his last five games and should get plenty of opportunity in this one. Harrison Barnes may draw some Paul George defense which worries me a bit, that and he’s not the most fun roster in the world. I’ll list him as a 4-star play given his price, but I’m not excited about it. I don’t attack Steven Adams with big men so Willie Cauley-Stein and Marvin Bagley are passes for me. Lastly, De’Aaron Fox is averaging 44 draftkings points per game in three matchups against the Thunder this year. He’s in a pretty good spot here.
5-star play: Bogdan Bogdanovic, De’Aaron Fox
4-star play: Harrison Barnes
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: None
GPP Sleeper: Buddy Hield
From the Thunder, Russell Westbrook and Paul George put on a show last night and turn around and get the Kings tonight. Paul George is just playing out of his mind right now, he’s scored over 40 real points in three of his last four games. He has a legit chance at the MVP award. Deciding between him and Russell Westbrook isn’t an easy decision, but Westbrook is on a similar type of hot streak. His triple-double streak came to an end last night and he was still able to drop 81 draftkings points. These two are nuts right now and for me to pretend like I know who will have the better night would be foolish of me. They’re both great plays. As for the rest of the Thunder, Jerami Grant’s price has come down and he’s been playing well recently, scoring at least 27.25 in his last four games. It seems as if Steven Adams needed a week to rest, as he broke out of his slump last night. He draws a nice matchup here, I have no problem with Adams tonight.
5-star play: Russell Westbrook, Paul George
4-star play: Steven Adams, Jerami Grant
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Terrance Ferguson
GPP Sleeper: Dennis Schroder
GO GIVE MY CORE 4 ARTICLE A READ
-> HERE <-
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total:
Vegas Spread:
Pace: Minnesota +2.4
We’re waiting on a total for this game as well, probably due to Karl-Anthony Towns. Speaking of, he was involved in a car accident and was forced to miss their game last night. If he is forced to miss again tonight the whole team sees a production boost. Here’s how things played out last night agains the Knicks;
Taj Gibson – 41 fantasy points on 31 minutes
Dario Saric – 26.25 fantasy points on 23 minutes
Andrew Wiggins – 35 fantasy points on 35 minutes
Anthony Tolliver – 25.25 fantasy points on 20 minutes
Derrick Rose – 31.5 fantasy points on 23 minutes
These are the guys that should see the biggest boost if he were to miss again. My favorite play would again be Taj Gibson, as his price didn’t move and would likely be one of the chalkiest plays on the slate. Andrew Wiggins will get all the minutes he can handle regardless on whether or not KAT plays. The problem is his price and he’ll likely draw Giannis defense which isn’t ideal. If Towns plays he becomes a force that we will need to keep in mind. He only scored 32.8 draftkings points in his only matchup with Milwaukee this year, but would still be someone we would want to consider. We will have to wait on KAT news, so keep an eye on this one.
5 star play: If Karl-Anthony Towns is OUT – Taj Gibson, Dario Saric, Derrick Rose and Jeff Teague
4 star play: Anthony Tolliver (If KAT is out), Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns (If Active)
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Taj Gibson, Anthony Tolliver
GPP Sleeper: None
From Milwaukee, the Research Station loves Malcolm Brogdon’s and Brook Lopez’s price, as do I. Neither of them fared very well in their first meeting, but I’m willing to discount those given their current price tags. Giannis on the other hand got a price bump and is now over $11k on both sites. I might tend to lean toward either Russell Westbrook or Paul George given the matchup and price, if KAT ends up sitting I likely won’t have much of this game due to the likely blowout.
5 star play: Malcolm Brogdon, Brook Lopez
4 star play: Giannis Antetouknmpo
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: George Hill
GPP Sleeper: Eric Bledsoe
Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: 235.0
Vegas Spread: GS -8.0
Pace: Houston +3.0
In what should be one of the higher scoring games on the night, Houston travels to Golden State to play in what they hope is a Western Conference final preview. Starting with the Rockets, James Harden is the most expensive player on the slate and draws an up paced matchup. With Chris Paul and now Clint Capela back he doesn’t need to completely take over the game. He’s still a fine play for gpp’s if this game really shoots out or as part of a game stack, but he’s a 4 star option for me. Chris Paul has been playing very well lately, scoring over 40 fantasy points in four of his past five games. You could certainly do worse than CP3 here. P.J. Tucker is priced down across the industry and makes for a great value play. Clint Capela is averaging 45 fantasy points in two games against the Warriors this year, but he’s been out for quite a while and I would like to see him do it first before I jump back on. Eric Gordon also makes for a great value play he’s seeing minutes in the mid 30’s and should have plenty of opportunities to shoot in this one.
5 star play: Chris Paul, Eric Gordon, P.J. Tucker
4 star play: James Harden
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: P.J. Tucker, Eric Gordon
GPP Sleeper: None
From the Warriors, DeMarcus Cousins price went up a whole $1,000 on Draftkings since their last game. His minutes restriction has been lifted so we will see how long they push him. At this price though there doesn’t seem to be much downside in playing Cousins. Draymond Green also seems to be in a good spot, I like attacking him in high total games and he should be able to force some turnovers here. As for Steph Curry and Kevin Durant, I normally don’t get to them very often just because it is so difficult to predict which one will take over on any give night. Much like Paul George and Russell Westbrook, if you want to play them, play Steph if you need a guard spot to fill and play Durant if you need a forward spot. Klay Thompson is always a fine play, no issues with him here. Andre Igoudala is way underpriced on Draftkings if you need another value play as well.
5 star play: DeMarcus Cousins, Draymond Green
4 star play: Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, Steph Curry
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Andre Igoudala (Draftkings)
GPP Sleeper: None
Dallas Mavericks @ Utah Jazz – Draftkings only
Vegas Total: 215.5
Vegas Spread: Utah -10.0
Pace: Dallas +0.6
The last game on the slate is a particularly fun one, it was left off of the Fanduel main slate which is a bit weird but lets start with the Mavericks. We will need to keep an eye on Luka Doncic injury news. If he’s available to play, he’s always in play from a fantasy perspective. At under $9k on Draftkings you could certainly do worse. Dwight Powell has been playing very well and is priced at a discount on Draftkings. Dorian Finney-Smith is also a nice value play he’s scored 20+ draftkings points in 3 of his last 4. Tim Hardaway didn’t exactly take advantage last game without Doncic, he’s always a nervous roster so I’ll leave him for gpp only.
5 star play: None
4 star play: Luka Doncic if he plays
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Dwight Powell, Dorian Finney-Smith
GPP Sleeper: Tim Hardaway Jr.
From the Jazz, Joe Ingles and Rudy Gobert are my favorite plays here. Ingles is never someone who is a core play, but if you end up with him as the last guy on your roster your not upset with it. Rudy Gobert draws an undersized Dallas team who should struggle guarding him. The only issue with the Jazz is if Doncic is out this game is going to get ugly fairly quickly. Derrick Favors is also a fine play, there really isn’t much I’m excited about from this team, but if you like them go ahead and fire them up!
5 star play: None
4 star play: Joe Ingles, Rudy Gobert, Derrick Favors
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: None
GPP Sleeper: Donavon Mitchell
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the game break a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches. If you don’t know about them, our two newest pages contain Breaking News and our exclusive Coaches’ Picks……both invaluable for late breaking news and pivots in NBA.
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