Welcome to the DFS Army NBA Game Break! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the game break/core 4. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!

Last night was a pretty profitable night for me, as I was all over Giannis and Al Horford. Switching off of Bogdanovic in favor of Caris LeVert kept me from being on GPP takedown mode, but you win some you lose some! Our members did well, that much I can tell! We’ve got a nice nine game slate on deck for tonight, so let’s get it started!

NBA Game Break:

San Antonio Spurs @ Toronto Raptors:

Vegas Total: 228.0

Vegas Spread: Tor -7.5

Pace: San Antonio +2

We get things started with San Antonio in what will be DeMar DeRozan’s first game back in Toronto. I’m normally not a huge narrative guy, but DeMar was not happy when he was sent to San Antonio and he’s incredibly underpriced. When these two teams matched up earlier in the year in San Antonio, DeRozan scored 62 draftkings points. My thing about revenge narrative is they are much more plausible when the player is returning to the city in which he left. He’s scoring 1.14 fantasy points per minute on the season, I haven’t made lineups yet but I’m expecting to have a lot of DDR today. LaMarcus Aldridge is a fine option, but I don’t think you’ll need him on a nine game slate at his price tag. Marco Belinelli isn’t a bad source of value if you need one, he’s under $4k and should play minutes in the mid 20’s. Finally, Rudy Gay is never really a guy I play, but if he’s the last guy into your lineup then I have no issue with him.

5 star plays: DeMar DeRozan

4 star plays: LaMarcus Aldridge, Marco Belinelli, Rudy Gay

Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Marco Belinelli

GPP Sleeper:

Onto the Raptors, this is also a revenge spot for Kawhi Leonard, but he wasn’t very vengeful in his return to San Antonio (again I like the spots where the player returns to the city) in which he scored just 32 draftkings points. I likely won’t have much Kawhi today. My favorite play from the Raptors is Kyle Lowry, the Spurs have been giving up big games to opposing point guards all year long. The Research Station shows that the Spurs rank 29th in defense against opposing point guards and at his price point he should have no problem taking advantage. Serge Ibaka and Pascal Siakam are both fine pieces as last guys into your lineups but certainly not priorities.

5 star plays: Kyle Lowry

4 star plays: Kawhi Leonard, Pascal Siakam

Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Danny Green

GPP Sleeper:

Chicago Bulls @ Orlando Magic:

Vegas Total: 217.0

Vegas Spread: Orl -8.0

Pace: Orlando +0.7

Starting with Chicago, the two big stories here are Otto Porter Jr. and Lauri Markkanen, these two have been crushing since the Wizards trade. The Bulls have no issue giving Porter big minutes, unlike the Wizards. He’s played at least 34 minutes in all of his games for the Bulls and I wouldn’t expect that to change any time soon. The Magic rank 24th in defense against opposing SF’s, Porter is in a very nice spot tonight. As for Markkanen, his price has shot up which is the only downside to him. He’s been getting more run at the five and has been directly correlated to more fantasy points, because of his price I’ll list him as a GPP play. Zach LaVine is also a fine play, but not a priority. Lastly, Kris Dunn has seen his price fall all the way down to $6100 on Draftkings and $6900 on Fanduel, he’s not a bad play if you’re doing some price shopping.

5 star plays: Otto Porter Jr.

4 star plays: Zach LaVine, Kris Dunn

Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate:

GPP Sleeper: Lauri Markkanen

From the Magic side of things, it seems like Aaron Gordon’s price has been stuck all year. The Research Station shows him being an incredible value, as it has him projected to nearly 6x his price tag. He would be my favorite play from this side of the ball. Nikola Vucevic is always a fine play anytime he is under $10k and shouldn’t have any issue putting up numbers against this defense. Lastly Evan Fournier and Terrance Ross are about the same price on both sites and I’m fine with both of them, I would tend to play Fournier and cash and Ross in GPP however.

5 star plays: Aaron Gordon

4 star plays: Nikola Vucevic, Evan Fournier 

Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate:

GPP Sleeper: Terrance Ross

New Orleans Pelicans @ Indiana Pacers:

Vegas Total: 220.0

Vegas Spread: Ind -5.5

Pace: Indiana +4.1

The Pelicans have come out and said Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday will be on a minutes limit for the rest of the season, so he can be avoided until his price comes way down. This team is incredibly hard to trust right now so everyone here comes in as a GPP only play for me until we can figure out what their rotations will be. Julius Randle and Kenrich Williams would be my two favorite plays, as the coaches have proven they’ll give them a good chunk of minutes, particularly Williams.

5 star plays:

4 star plays: Julius Randle

Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate:

GPP Sleeper: Julius Randle, Kenrich Williams

This is a pretty big pace up game for the Pacers so there are some plays we should be able to attack here. My favorite being Darren Collison, who the Research Station has projected to 6.4x his price tag. The Pelicans rank 28th in defense versus opposing point guards, this should be a great spot for Collison. The other two guys I like are Myles Turner and Thad Young, if Anthony Davis isn’t going to play a whole lot, they should have no problem feasting on the New Orleans front court. Myles Turner has been racking up steals and blocks lately and should continue that against this team in shambles.

5 star plays: Darren Collison

4 star plays: Myles Turner, Thad Young, Bojan Bogdanovic

Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate:

GPP Sleeper:

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Washington Wizards @ Charlotte Hornets:

Vegas Total: 230.0

Vegas Spread: Cha -5.0

Pace: Charlotte +2.6

This game features the highest total on the entire slate and is projected to stay relatively close with the Hornets only favored by 5. We will start with the Wizards, Trevor Ariza wasn’t traded at the deadline, so it looks like he will continue to play minutes in the upper 30’s while still on this team which will put him into play almost every night while his price is reasonable. A guy playing that much in a high scoring game like this is someone we need to consider. Bobby Portis shouldn’t have any problem scoring on Cody Zeller and company, Portis is currently scoring 1.09 fantasy points per minute and could see near 30 minutes in this one. Lastly, Bradley Beal has been on an absolute tear, scoring 50+ draftkings points in four of his last five games. He’s getting all the minutes he can handle right now, he’s priced at a premium but I don’t have an issue paying that price.

5 star plays: Bradley Beal, Trevor Ariza

4 star plays: Bobby Portis, Tomas Satoransky 

Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate:

GPP Sleeper: Jabari Parker

Charlotte always seems underpriced other than Kemba Walker. I’ll start with Kemba, he’s priced at $10k on Fanduel and $9300 on Draftkings. We saw him take a step back from his hot streak in the game before the break, Kemba is a streaky guy so going to him after that game worries me a bit. I would rather pay for Bradley Beal at a similar price, but Kemba is fine for tournaments. Nicolas Batum and Marvin Williams are the guys that seemingly never see a price bump, they’re both good value options against an awful Wizards defense. Finally, Cody Zeller has been a cash game machine since returning from injury, scoring at least 26.25 draftkings points per game in all his games. Targeting big men against Washington is something I’ve done all season which makes him a great play tonight.

5 star plays: Cody Zeller, Nicolas Batum, Marvin Williams

4 star plays: Jeremy Lamb, Kemba Walker

Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate:

GPP Sleeper: Kemba Walker 

Detroit Pistons @ Atlanta Hawks:

Vegas Total: 223.0

Vegas Spread: Det -3.5

Pace: Detroit +5.7

Detroit is in the highest pace up spot on the slate and stacking against the Hawks has been proven successful over the past couple of weeks. Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond are the staples to this offense and really shouldn’t have any trouble doing what they want in this one. If I had to pick one it would be Blake on Fanduel and Drummond on Draftkings where they are underpriced, respectively. The rest of this team is kind of a beast to figure out and really consists of tournament fliers and deep value. Those guys being newly acquired Wayne Ellington and Luke Kennard, they should both get minutes near 30, but it just comes down to whether or not they’re hitting their shots. In this matchup though I wouldn’t worry much about it, go ahead any play them if you like them or need some value.

5 star plays: Blake Griffin (Fanduel), Andre Drummond (Draftkings)

4 star plays: Blake Griffin (Draftkings), Wayne Ellington, Luke Kennard

Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate:

GPP Sleeper: Luke Kennard, Wayne Ellington

From the Atlanta side of things, the Research Station has two guys who are absolutely popping in terms of point per dollar. Those guys being, Kent Bazemore and DeAndre Bembry who are projected to 6.8x and 7.8x their respective price tags. They’re both simply too cheap and should play near 30 minutes, they are a great source of value. Dewayne Dedmond may pick up more minutes in this one to try and help cover Andre Drummond so he’s a fine GPP play. Trae Young’s price has dipped a little bit since his last game, but is still priced at a premium. He’s not a core play for me but I have no issue with him.

5 star plays: Kent Bazemore, DeAndre Bembry

4 star plays: Trae Young, Taurean Prince 

Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Kent Bazemore, DeAndre Bembry

GPP Sleeper: Dewayne Dedmond

Minnesota Timberwolves @ New York Knicks:

Vegas Total: 220.0

Vegas Spread: Min -6.0

Pace: New York +0.2

From Minnesota, they draw a pretty good matchup against the Knicks who haven’t been able to stop anybody all year. My favorite guys from this team are Jeff Teague and Karl-Anthony Towns. Teague is in great form going over 40 and 50 fantasy points in his last two games and should be able to take advantage of this weak defense. Karl-Anthony Towns is priced up a bit and isn’t my favorite superstar on the slate but he’s certainly playable. I don’t have much interest in the rest of this outside of Andrew Wiggins who is a secondary play for me.

5 star plays: Jeff Teague

4 star plays: Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns

Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Josh Okogie

GPP Sleeper:

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From the Knicks, Dennis Smith has finally hit the $7k range on Draftkings, but is still a secondary option if you want to go there. Luke Kornet makes for a fine value play, but not someone I want to lock in just because the Knicks have so many big men and Kornet will have trouble guarding the likes of Taj Gibson and Towns. Mitchell Robinson is a fine value play, but not a priority. Finally, Kevin Knox plays a ton of minutes but doesn’t get you there unless he’s hitting his shots, so he makes for a fine GPP play.

5 star plays:

4 star plays: Dennis Smith Jr.

Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Luke Kornet, Mitchell Robinson

GPP Sleeper: Kevin Knox

Los Angeles Clippers @ Memphis Grizzlies:

Vegas Total: 214.0

Vegas Spread: Lac -2.0

Pace: Memphis +5.8

The Clippers are in a extreme pace down spot against the Grizzlies tonight which makes it hard to like much of anyone. If I had to pick someone worth playing it would be JaMychal Green for a source of value. The rest of this team just feels like a hard pass in this matchup. It’s a pretty bleak write-up, but when the shoe fits…

5 star plays:

4 star plays:

Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: JaMychal Green

GPP Sleeper:

On the opposite end, this is a pace up spot for the Grizzlies, but are still a pretty ugly team right now. There are two guys that are worth playing as values, Delon Wright and Avery Bradley. Bradley exploded for 50 fantasy points in his matchup with the Spurs before the break, that’s not something I expect. But, he will get minutes into the 30’s, you could do worse. Mike Conley makes for a good tournament play, as it is a pace up spot, although Patrick Beverley plays phenomenal on ball defense. All in all, I have no issue crossing this game off the slate.

5 star plays:

4 star plays: 

Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Delon Wright and Avery Bradley

GPP Sleeper: Mike Conley

Denver Nuggets @ Dallas Mavericks:

Vegas Total: 219.0

Vegas Spread: Den -3.5

Pace: Denver +1.9

Denver plays at a slower pace than most people realize, so this is a pace up spot against the Mavericks. There are a few guys I can see targeting here, Nikola Jokic would probably be my choice if deciding between him and Towns. With DeAndre Jordan out of town the Mavs won’t have much that stands in the way of Jokic who has a 27.3% usage rate on the season. Paul Millsap is also popping as a nice point per dollar play in the research station, I have no issues with him here. Finally, Jamaal Murray is in a decent spot, not someone I’m prioritizing, but could make for a good GPP play as he does have 50 point upside.

5 star plays: Paul Millsap, Nikola Jokic

4 star plays: Jamaal Murray

Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate:

GPP Sleeper: Jamaal Murray, Will Barton

From Dallas, Dorian Finney-Smith makes for a good value play on Draftkings where he is under $4k. Luka Doncic is priced probably a little lower than he needs to be, he’s a 4-star guy in this matchup however. Dwight Powell may play extended minutes in efforts to slow down Nikola Jokic so I like him as a source of value as well.

5 star plays: Dorian Finney-Smith (Draftkings)

4 star plays: Luka Doncic, Dwight Powell

Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Dorian Finney-Smith

GPP Sleeper: Tim Hardaway Jr.

Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder:

Vegas Total: 226.0

Vegas Spread: Okc -3.5

Pace: Utah +3.4

The last game on the slate features a pretty nice total and a close spread, let’s start with the Jazz. The Jazz all feel appropriately priced, so I would tend to lean toward guys like Donovan Mitchell and Ricky Rubio who they will need in order to keep this game close. Rudy Gobert is a fine play, but I tend to stay away from playing big men against the Thunder, as Steven Adams is a force down low. Joe Ingles has scored an average of 28 draftkings points in two matchups this season, so he could be worth a shot as well.

5 star plays:

4 star plays: Donovan Mitchell, Ricky Rubio, Joe Ingles

Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Jae Crowder 

GPP Sleeper:

Lastly, we have the Oklahoma City Thunder and we all know who scores the fantasy points on this team. I’ll start with Russell Westbrook who has been held to just 42 draftkings points per game in these teams previous matchups. Whereas Paul George has averaged 66 draftkings points per game. It seems as if George matches up much better against this team, so if picking between the two I would lean toward George who is having an MVP type season. The only other guy I have interest in would be Dennis Schroder coming off the bench, not a ton of interest, but I wouldn’t blame you for going there.

5 star plays: Paul George

4 star plays: Russell Westbrook, Dennis Schroder

Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate:

GPP Sleeper:

As always I appreciate everyone who gave the game break a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches. If you don’t know about them, our two newest pages contain Breaking News and our exclusive Coaches’ Picks……both invaluable for late breaking news and pivots in NBA.

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