Welcome to the DFS Army NBA Game Break! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the game break/core 4. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
The all-star break has finally come to an end and we kick things off with a nice little six game slate tonight! I hope everyone enjoyed the break and was able to reboot a little bit while expanding your game in NHL, PGA and CBB. I encourage you to continue playing those sports in DFS if you enjoyed it, if they weren’t your cup of tea well then good thing the NBA is back!
NBA Game Break:
Phoenix Suns @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: 219.0
Vegas Spread: Cle -1.0
Alright, we kick things off with two of the worst teams in basketball, but they’re both bad defensively too so we should be able to find some plays here. From the Suns, it sounds like T.J. Warren won’t return here meaning Devin Booker and the wings become very playable here. Using the Research Station, we can see that Devin Booker draws a great defensive matchup where the Cavs rank 22nd against opposing shooting guards. Not only does he draw a great matchup, but he is severely underpriced on both sites, I will likely have some Devin Booker tonight (he cracks the core 4 tonight). The Warren news also makes guys like Josh Jackson, Kelly Oubre and Mikal Bridges playable, my favorite being Mikal Bridges who is playing all the minutes he can handle right now. He’s played at least 35 minutes in 8 of his last 10 games and draws a beatable matchup against the Cavs. He should also be able to pick up some extra steals and blocks due to the Cavaliers’ lack of efficiency. Kelly Oubre has the higher ceiling of the two, but his price is a little tough to stomach. Oubre isn’t a bad play but I’ll stick with Bridges for cash games. Finally, DeAndre Ayton draws a pretty easy matchup here with Tristan Thompson still out for the Cavs. His price isn’t all that hindering but I don’t know that I’ll be making him a priority.
5 star plays: Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges
4 star plays: DeAndre Ayton, Kelly Oubre, Josh Jackson
Deeper value:
GPP sleeper: Richaun Holmes
The Cavaliers should have no problem giving their young guys big minutes down the stretch here which makes me like Collin Sexton. The Suns rank 23rd in defending opposing point guards and should be able to draw minutes into the mid 30’s here. People may see Jordan Clarkson’s 64 point fantasy game against the Nets before the break and be willing to chase that, but can you blame them? Clarkson draws the same defensive matchup as Sexton does only he gets to come off the bench and control the usage, his price has come up but he’s a great gpp play here. Cedi Osman returned from injury before the break and was able to play more minutes than I thought he would, given the time off he shouldn’t have any minutes restriction here. Osman is cheaper on Fanduel making him a phenomenal play over there.
5 star plays: Collin Sexton, Cedi Osman (Fanduel)
4 star plays: Jordan Clarkson, Cedi Osman (Draftkings)
Deeper value: David Nwaba
GPP sleeper: David Nwaba
Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total: 219.5
Vegas Spread: Phi -6.5
The big news for the Heat is Goran Dragic will finally be making his return back from injury, which makes Miami’s deep rotations even deeper (sigh). Dragic will likely be worked in slowly seeing as how he’s missed a few months, but it’s a situation to monitor tonight. Before the break I was riding Dion Waiters to the promise land, but with Dragic back I would expect him to see fewer minutes and ball handling duties so he can be avoided here. Holy bargain bin for Dwyane Wade… under $4500 on Draftkings is pretty enticing, but I don’t know if we can trust his minutes. Wade has played back to back nights with just 22 minutes, he makes for a great gpp play at that price tag. As for the front court, its a bit of a mess right now with Adebayo, Whiteside, Olynyk and Johnson playing sporadic minutes, none of them can be trusted for cash games.
5 star plays:
4 star plays: Dwyane Wade, Josh Richardson
Deeper value: Bam Adebayo, Dwyane Wade
GPP sleeper: Bam Adebayo
The 76ers will be without Joel Embiid in this matchup which normally means there is a good amount of usage open for the taking. It sounds like Boban may finally get his first start with the 76ers, if so he would become a great play at under $4k on both sites. Boban is an elite point per minute contributor scoring 1.23 fantasy points per minute on the season and if he can play minutes into the mid to lower 20’s here he shouldn’t have any problem hitting value at that price tag. Normally with Embiid out we can attack Ben Simmons and Jimmy Butler, but Tobias Harris has thrown a wrench into things. The sample size is small, but with Embiid off the court while Tobias is with the team it’s Jimmy Butler who leads the three in usage at 27.5%. He also sees 1.64 fantasy points per minute, so Jimmy Butler is someone we can play here tonight. Ben Simmons is also underpriced given the circumstances making him a viable play as well. Finally, Tobias Harris’s price has come down and should get some extra minutes in this one, I won’t talk you off of playing him tonight.
5 star plays: Jimmy Butler, Boban Marjanovic
4 star plays: Ben Simmons, JJ Redick, Tobias Harris
Deeper value:
GPP sleeper: Mike Scott
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Portland Trail Blazers @ Brooklyn Nets
Vegas Total:
Vegas Spread:
Right before the all star break the Trail Blazers signed Enes Kanter to a contract, this is something we will have to keep an eye on going forward, but I don’t think it immediately puts him into play or impacts Jusuf Nurkic all that much. Speaking of Jusuf Nurkic, we’ve been targeting centers against the Nets all year long, so why stop now! The Nets rank 28th in defending opposing big men and Nurkic should have no problem doing what he wants here. Damian Lillard also draws a phenomenal matchup, according to the Research Station, the Nets rank 27th in defending opposing point guards. As for the rest of the Blazers, there isn’t a whole lot that I like. You can take a shot on Al-Farouq Aminu as he’s fairly cheap, but certainly not a priority.
5 star plays: Jusuf Nurkic, Damian Lillard
4 star plays:
Deeper value: Al-Farouq Aminu
GPP sleeper:
As for the Nets, Joe Harris made a name for himself over all star weekend by winning the 3-point contest and may actually be in play here as well. The Research Station has him projected to be the highest point per dollar producer on this team which puts him in play for me in this spot. Keep an eye out for a minutes limit on Caris LeVert, he’s been producing fairly well in limited minutes so if he can push for 30+ minutes here he becomes a very nice play. Finally, you can always make a case for D’Angelo Russell in gpp’s as he is one of the more volatile players in the league.
5 star plays: Joe Harris
4 star plays: Caris LeVert, D’Angelo Russell
Deeper value: Demarre Carroll
GPP sleeper:
Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 227.5
Vegas Spread: Mil -5.5
This should be one of the best games from a basketball standpoint on the slate as it has potential to be an eastern conference final preview. We will start with the Celtics, Kyrie Irving is priced up right now and draws a difficult matchup against the Bucks who rank 12th in defending opposing point guards, Irving has averaged 43.5 draftkings points in two matchups this year, so you could do worse. My favorite plays from the Boston side come from the front court, first we have Al Horford. Being a Bucks fan, it seems like Horford just knows how to beat the Bucks, he scored 38.8 draftkings points in his only meeting with them this year. At $6000 on Draftkings he is certainly in play. Finally, Jayson Tatum is under $6k on draftkings and is averaging 30.6 draftkings points per game in two matchups this year. He’s not a priority play, but you can certainly do worse than Tatum tonight.
5 star plays: Al Horford (Draftkings)
4 star plays: Kyrie Irving, Jayson Tatum (Draftkings)
Deeper value:
GPP sleeper: Jaylen Brown
From the Bucks side of things, Nikola Mirotic is expected to make his team debut in this one. I’m not running out to play him right away, but keep an eye on the rotations and how many minutes he receives. Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton both draw tough matchups against the Celtics back court and are priced where they should be, so I won’t have much of them. Brook Lopez is priced nicely and plays a similar type of game to Al Horford, if you’re looking for a discount center other than Boban, Splash Mountain might be your guy. But, my favorite play here is the Greek Freak himself, Giannis. He’s priced up and doesn’t draw the best matchup, but as we know Giannis is pretty much matchup proof. He’s averaged 53.6 draftkings points per game in two meetings this season, but will look to put his team on his back and prove to the eastern conference that the Bucks are no joke.
5 star plays: Giannis Antetokounmpo
4 star plays: Brook Lopez, Malcolm Brogdon
Deeper value:
GPP sleeper:
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Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: 239.0
Vegas Spread: GS -11.5
Onto the highest total on the slate, but also the biggest spread. Starting with the Kings, newly acquired Harrison Barnes feels a bit too cheap on Draftkings in this revenge game against his old team. This game makes for a great gpp stack, but to be honest other than Barnes I’m really not trusting a whole lot from this team when it comes to cash games. You can make a case for Bogdan Bogdanovic who is priced under $5k on Draftkings. De’Aaron Fox has a nice price tag on Fanduel and will be relied upon to keep this game close. Of the big men, I would lean towards Willie Cauley-Stein because he will likely get the most minutes, but it’s a tough matchup with Draymond Green and company.
5 star plays: Harrison Barnes (Draftkings), Bogdan Bogdanovic
4 star plays: De’Aaron Fox (Fanduel), Willie Cauley-Stein
Deeper value:
GPP sleeper: Nemanja Bjelica
From the Warriors side, they said DeMarcus Cousins would be held to a 25 minute restriction up until the all star break and well that’s passed. It will be interesting to see how many minutes they give him here, I’m willing to take the chance in a beatable matchup against the Kings. I almost forgot to mention that this is a major revenge spot for Boogie. He has bad blood with the Kings organization and will look to show his worth. The rest of the Warriors, much like the Kings, stand out as great gpp plays due to the likely blowout in this one. Steph Curry, Kevin Durant and Draymond Green are all fine but there are safer plays for cash games, but by all means shoot away for tournaments.
5 star plays: DeMarcus Cousins
4 star plays: Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green
Deeper value: Andre Igoudala, Kevon Looney
GPP sleeper:
NBA All-Star Break was a great success for many of our newer players! Our coaches have done a lot of explaining, and our members have done a lot of winning. The edge clearly resides in coaching. Content and tools are nice, but how can you exploit your opponents when you don’t have the experts teaching you how to apply the content and tools? That’s where DFS Army steps in. Become a VIP and see what all the fuss is about…..#FearTheHelmet!
Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas Total: 233.0
Vegas Spread: Hou -2.5
The last game of the slate, may be the best in terms of fantasy production. The Rockets are expecting Clint Capela to return tonight as they slowly get healthier. James Harden’s price has finally come down below $12k, but that is likely due to the fact that they are getting healthier and he doesn’t need to handle a 50% usage rate anymore. With that said, he still has an elite usage rate of up near 40% and draws a great matchup against the Lakers. Chris Paul is in a similar spot and actually might be my preference of the two. Eric Gordon is way too cheap given the matchup tonight, I like him as a source of value. As for Capela, I would expect that he is limited here, but be sure to keep an eye on our Breaking News page for details.
5 star plays: James Harden, Chris Paul, Eric Gordon
4 star plays: PJ Tucker
Deeper value:
GPP sleeper: Gerald Green
From the Lakers side of things, Lonzo Ball is still out and LeBron was unable to land Anthony Davis, but they’re fighting to make the playoffs at this point. In order to make the playoffs, they will lean heavily on LeBron James down the stretch making him my favorite play on the Lakers. I always like targeting LeBron in pace up, close spread games and this one is no different. Reggie Bullock has played well since being acquired by the Lakers and is a good source of value tonight as they may need his “3 and D” play to keep things close. The Research Station has Kyle Kuzma as the top point per dollar play on this team and I tend to agree with it. He’s far too cheap across both sites and has been in relatively good form as of late, he should be able to take advantage of Kenneth Faried on defense.
5 star plays: LeBron James, Kyle Kuzma
4 star plays: Reggie Bullock
Deeper value:
GPP sleeper: JaVale McGee
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the game break a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches. If you don’t know about them, our two newest pages contain Breaking News and our exclusive Coaches’ Picks……both invaluable for late breaking news and pivots in NBA. Also be sure to check out my Core 4 article, which gives you 4 guys I’m locking into my draftkings lineups!
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