Welcome to the DFS Army NBA Game Break! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the game break/core 4. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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NBA Game Break:
Portland Trail Blazers @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: 222.5
Vegas Spread: Por -9.0
Pace: Cle +3.1
The Portland side of things seems like they are all priced about where they should be and maybe even a little overpriced on Fanduel. Damian Lillard has an elite 30.6% usage rate on the season and draws a pretty good matchup here, but I don’t know that there is enough upside to make the price worth it. Al-Farouq Aminu is at a fair price especially on Draftkings, he’s gone over 25 Draftkings points in his last four games. If you need a salary saver, you could do much worse than Aminu here. Speaking of value, Maurice Harkless on Draftkings is near the minimum and has gone for 30+ in two straight games. I never really play CJ McCollum, but he’s priced under $6500 on Draftkings if you need a mid-range shooting guard, but on an eleven game slate he makes for a gpp option. Jusuf Nurkic draws the best matchup on this team with Tristan Thompson still out. The Cavs rank 29th in defense against opposing centers shown by the Research Station.
5-star play: Al-Farouq Aminu (Draftkings)
4-star play: Maurice Harkless (Draftkings), Damian Lillard (Draftkings), Jusuf Nurkic, CJ McCollum
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Maurice Harkless, Al-Farouq Aminu
GPP Sleeper: CJ McCollum, Enes Kanter
From the Cavaliers, Kevin Love is showing no signs of rust since coming back from injury. He was able to play 26 minutes last time out and scored over 50 fantasy points. It’s not an easy matchup, but if Love is going to get 30 minutes here he may be underpriced. Collin Sexton is going to receive a ton of minutes and is still priced fairly. Brandon Knight is a complete FD drop candidate since he’s incredibly hard to trust, but he does score 0.73 fantasy points per minute. Lastly, Cedi Osman draws a tough matchup and loses some usage with Love on the floor. We can do better on an eleven game slate.
5-star play: Kevin Love
4-star play: Collin Sexton
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Brandon Knight
GPP Sleeper: Jordan Clarkson
Golden State Warriors @ Charlotte Hornets
Vegas Total: 234.0
Vegas Spread: GS -7.5
Pace: Cha +1.9
This game features one of the highest totals on the slate, we will begin with the Warriors. DeMarcus Cousins’ price continues to climb, but for good reason. He’s scored 37+ fantasy points in the past three games and draws a matchup against Cody Zeller and company. The Hornets rank 22nd in defense against opposing centers and won’t have the size to matchup with Cousins. By now most of you know my feelings toward Kevin Durant and Steph Curry, play whichever one fits better in your lineup if you want to get a piece of them. I for one, normally don’t have much of Curry or Durant. Andre Iguodala can’t seem to get a price bump on Draftkings, he is still under $4k and has gone over 20 fantasy points in three straight. Klay Thompson and Draymond Green make sense as the last piece to your lineup, but not a priority for me on this slate.
5-star play: DeMarcus Cousins, Andre Iguodala (Draftkings)
4-star play: Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Andre Iguodala
GPP Sleeper: None
From the Hornets, the Research Station loves Miles Bridges and has him projected to 6x his price tag. I’m going to pump the brakes on that. People were all over him last game when I said the same thing and he only played 12 minutes. There should be better value that opens up throughout the day. I’ll keep saying it Marvin Williams and Nicolas Batum seem to be stuck at their current prices. They’re both playing pretty good basketball and make for good low-end price plays. Cody Zeller continues to produce, he has gone for 25+ fantasy points in every game since returning from injury. Finally, Kemba Walker has been rolling and the Warriors rank in the bottom half of the league in defense against point guards. If the Hornets are going to stay in this game it will likely be because of Kemba.
5-star play: Kemba Walker, Cody Zeller
4-star play: Marvin Williams, Nicolas Batum
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: None
GPP Sleeper: Jeremy Lamb
Indiana Pacers @ Detroit Pistons
Vegas Total: 212.5
Vegas Spread: Det -2.5
Pace: Ind +0.2
Starting with the Pacers, Darren Collison seems a little underpriced here. He’s gone for 30+ fantasy points in four of his last five games. Myles Turner is still questionable here if he is out Kyle O’Quinn and Domantas Sabonis have seen price bumps. They also draw a tough matchup against the twin towers in Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond. I’ll likely avoid the Pacers front-court here. Other than that, Bojan Bogdanovic is always fine as the last piece into a lineup.
5-star play: Darren Collison
4-star play: Kyle O’Quinn and Domantas Sabonis (If Turner is OUT)
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: None
GPP Sleeper: Bojan Bogdanovic
From the Pistons, it’s pretty ridiculous that Blake Griffin is priced higher than Andre Drummond on Draftkings. I like Drummond much more on Draftkings rather than Fanduel, but he has been rolling. He’s gone for 50+ fantasy points in seven of his last ten games and draws and undersized front-court here. Wayne Ellington and Luke Kennard are fine value plays, but not my favorite in this spot. Finally, Reggie Jackson only saw 22 minutes in his last game, he’s a gpp only play for me.
5-star play: Andre Drummond (Draftkings)
4-star play: Blake Griffin
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Wayne Ellington, Luke Kennard
GPP Sleeper: Reggie Jackson
San Antonio Spurs @ Brooklyn Nets
Vegas Total: 231.0
Vegas Spread: Bkn -2.0
Pace: SA +2.1
The Spurs are playing their third game in four days, so we need to proceed with caution here. I’m sure we’ve all been “Popped” before, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Aldridge or Gay sits out this game. Again just reckless speculation by me, but keep your eyes out. Assuming everyone plays, we’ve been targeting big men against the Nets all year making Aldridge a great play. The Nets rank 26th in opposing defense against opposing power forwards and Aldridge shouldn’t have a problem doing what he wants. DeMar DeRozan has seen a price boost over the past few days, the Nets quietly rank 2nd against opposing shooting guards. Marco Belinelli makes for a fine value play.
5-star play: LaMarcus Aldridge
4-star play: DeMar DeRozan
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Marco Belinelli
GPP Sleeper: Patty Mills
From the Nets, I’ll continue to target the Spurs with point guards. Yesterday I talked about how either Dennis Smith or Emmanuel Mudiay would have a big game and Smith went for over 50 fantasy points. D’Angelo Russell makes for an elite gpp play today and a strong cash game option. Jarrett Allen is still underpriced on Draftkings so I don’t mind going there with him. Joe Harris continues to play good basketball, he’s gone for over 30 fantasy points in three of his last four games and is priced under $5k on Draftkings. The Research Station likes a lot of the Nets on Draftkings, I’ll attach a screenshot below, but it has seven of the Nets players projected to hit at least 5x on the price tag. They likely won’t ALL hit 5x, but this is a pretty decent spot for Brooklyn.
5-star play: D’Angelo Russell, Jarrett Allen
4-star play: Joe Harris, DeMarre Carrol, Caris LeVert
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Ed Davis
GPP Sleeper: None
Phoenix Suns @ Miami Heat
Vegas Total: 215.5
Vegas Spread: Mia -8.5
Pace: Mia +1.9
Kelly Oubre chalk night didn’t turn out too well for anyone who played him the other night. His ownership will be down in this spot but is projected to be the best point per dollar play on the Suns. Tyler Johnson gets a revenge game here back in his old arena. Johnson is coming off a career game against the Hawks in which he scored 50 fantasy points. The Heat are pretty tough on opposing point guards, so I’ll let other people point chase here. I’ve been playing Devin Booker a lot because he’s been too cheap, he’s still under $9k and draws a sneaky good matchup. The Heat rank 26th against opposing shooting guards, I probably won’t go there in cash, but he’s an excellent gpp play.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Kelly Oubre, Tyler Johnson, Devin Booker
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Richaun Holmes
GPP Sleeper: Devin Booker
Most of you know I hate playing Heat players because of their deep rotations, but a matchup against the Suns can cure that. The Research Station absolutely loves the Heat players, it has five players projected to 6x their price tag. Kelly Olynyk has gone for 20+ fantasy points in three of his last four games. Dion Waiters has gone over 20+ fantasy points in his last five games and will be able to put up a ton of shots in this game. Dwyane Wade leads this team in usage at 24%, this is a good spot for him as well.
5-star play: Kelly Olynyk, Dwyane Wade, Dion Waiters
4-star play: Hassan Whiteside, Josh Richardson
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Kelly Olynyk
GPP Sleeper: Hassan Whiteside, Bam Adebayo, Derrick Jones Jr.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Chicago Bulls
Vegas Total: 227.0
Vegas Spread: Mil -11.0
Pace: Chi +4.0
Giannis Antetokounmpo has already been ruled out for tonight’s game, which means there will be a ton of usage to go around. Here is how the most impacted players shake out with Giannis off the court this season…
- Khris Middleton – 31.2% usage rate; 1.3 fpm
- Eric Bledsoe – 28.2 % usage rate; 1.6 fpm
- Ersan Ilyasova – 16% usage rate; 0.92 fpm
- Malcolm Brogdon – 27.1% usage rate; 1.2 fpm
It’s a very small sample size (about 11 minutes), but Nikola Mirotic has averaged over 2 points per minute with Giannis off the court. This won’t continue, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he was around the 1.2 points per minute number. He should also see a bump in minutes and I would expect him to start in place of Giannis tonight. All of these guys are elite plays tonight and a Bucks stack is certainly in play against this week Chicago team. If I had to rank them it would be Bledsoe, Middleton then Brogdon and Ilyasova as an elite value play.
5-star play: Eric Bledsoe, Khris Middleton, Malcolm Brogdon, Nikola Mirotic
4-star play: Brook Lopez
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Ersan Ilyasova
GPP Sleeper: DJ Wilson
From the Bulls, Otto Porter Jr. is my favorite play here if he plays. He’s currently questionable with a lower leg injury so keep an eye out for that. In his only game against the Bucks this year he scored 34.25 Draftkings points and without Giannis on the court, he should have no problem scoring. Lauri Markkanen is back under $8k on Draftkings and is firmly in play here. Zach LaVine and Kris Dunn are fine plays, but not priorities for me. Robin Lopez has been sneaky good and draws a matchup against his brother tonight. He has scored 25+ fantasy points in his past five games and makes for a nice value play.
**UPDATE: Otto Porter and Kris Dunn have been ruled OUT for tonight’s game. Here is how the rest of the take shakes out with these two off the court this season:
- Lauri Markkanen – 29.7% usage rate; 1.15 fpm
- Zach LaVine – 37.3% usage rate; 1.24 fpm
- Robin Lopez – 22% usage; 0.94 fpm
5-star play: Zach LaVine, Lauri Markkanen
4-star play: Robin Lopez
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Wayne Selden, Robin Lopez
GPP Sleeper: None
Sacramento Kings @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: 237.0
Vegas Spread: Min -2.5
Pace: Min +3.2
Starting with the Kings, Harrison Barnes is probably the best point per dollar play here. Although he is horribly painful to roster, I’ll have him as a 4-star play. Bogdan Bogdanovic continues his consistent play and is still a little too underpriced for such a high paced game. Buddy Hield and De’Aaron Fox are both upside plays in a high scoring game, they’re both fine as last pieces in your lineup. Willie Cauley-Stein and Marvin Bagley have switched roles this season, but Cauley-Stein has scored 30+ in three of his last four games and isn’t priced that way. Meanwhile, Marvin Bagley has scored 45+ in three of his last four, I like both of them tonight depending on which price range you fall on.
5-star play: Bogdan Bogdanovic, Willie-Cauley Stein, Marvin Bagley
4-star play: Harrison Barnes, De’Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: None
GPP Sleeper: None
It sounds like Karl-Anthony Towns will make his return tonight. I wouldn’t expect him to be limited since it was a concussion that held him out and is now cleared. This is a pretty good spot for Towns, who is around 1.5 fantasy points per minute on the season. Jeff Teague stands out as a good play as well, as he his priced way down especially on Draftkings. The Kings rank 21st against opposing point guards on the season. Andrew Wiggins is playing great right now, we need to take it with a grain of salt due to the Towns injury, however. He’s gone for 35+ in four straight games and is playing all the minutes he can handle. The Kings rank 25th in the league against opposing small forwards. We can probably jump off the Taj Gibson train now with Towns back as well, as his price has skyrocketed.
5-star play: Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins, Jeff Teague
4-star play: None
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: None
GPP Sleeper: Derrick Rose
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Los Angeles Lakers @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 221.5
Vegas Spread: Lal -4.5
Pace: Mem +7.8
This is a massive pace down spot for the Lakers, who travel to Memphis tonight. Due to this, there really isn’t a whole lot that I like from Los Angeles. I’ll never talk you off of LeBron if you want to go there, but I would rather pay up elsewhere on tonight’s slate. Kyle Kuzma is priced fairly and has gone for 30+ fantasy points in five straight games. Brandon Ingram is a fine play, but I most likely won’t land there. Other than that, I think you can stay away from this team tonight.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Kyle Kuzma, Brandon Ingram
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
GPP Sleeper: LeBron James
The opposite is true for Memphis, as this is a massive pace up spot for them. Delon Wright has scored 25+ fantasy points in three of his last four games and makes for a nice value play tonight. Jonas Valanciunas might be my favorite player from this game, he should have no problem destroying the Lakers front-court and has been an elite fantasy point per minute guy throughout his career. On the season he is averaging 1.4 fantasy points per minute and the Grizzlies have shown they’ll actually give him minutes, unlike the Raptors. Mike Conley is a fine play, but I’ll put him at 4-stars just because of the depth at point guard today.
5-star play: Jonas Valanciunas
4-star play: Mike Conley, Delon Wright
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Delon Wright, Avery Bradley
GPP Sleeper: Mike Conley
Atlanta Hawks @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: 232.0
Vegas Spread: Hou -10.0
Pace: Hou +6.0
Starting with Atlanta, I don’t play point guards against Chris Paul plain and simple, so Trae Young won’t be in my player pool tonight. John Collins draws a pretty nice matchup tonight, although he may see some P.J. Tucker which is less than ideal. Collins has been underperforming for about a week now except for his last time out, so maybe temper expectations. Kent Bazemore is probably my favorite play from this team, he’s been getting more and more minutes and has been producing. He averages around a fantasy point per minute, if they can keep this game close he should be around the 30-minute mark tonight. DeAndre Bembry makes for a fine value play as well.
5-star play: Kent Bazemore
4-star play: John Collins
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: DeAndre Bembry
GPP Sleeper: Trae Young (Deep sleeper)
The Rockets draw a pretty big pace up spot here and I’ve been saying it for the past month, stacking against the Hawks rarely fails. James Harden is currently questionable for tonights game, which makes things tough. It felt like he was close to playing last game, but then again they shouldn’t have a problem with the Hawks if he were to sit. If he plays, I like him here plain and simple. But, if he sits it opens up a ton of usage for the likes of Chris Paul, Eric Gordon, and Clint Capela. I like Eric Gordon regardless of the Harden news, he’s too cheap in an up-tempo spot. Chris Paul becomes close to a must play if Harden sits and a 4-star play if he plays. I’m still waiting for Capela to prove it to me before I hop on board, as he’s been out with an injury for a while. However, I’m tempted to go there anyway tonight because of the spot. P.J. Tucker went banana’s in his last game, I wouldn’t expect that again tonight but he’s a solid value play regardless.
**James Harden is now Probable**
5-star play: James Harden, Eric Gordon, Chris Paul (If Harden is OUT)
4-star play: Clint Capela, PJ Tucker, Chris Paul (If Harden is IN)
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: PJ Tucker
GPP Sleeper: Gerald Green
MUST READ -> DONUTS TO DOLLARS
Philadelphia 76ers @ New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas Total: 238.0
Vegas Spread: NO -1.5
Pace: Phi +0.6
The highest total on the slate belongs in New Orleans. I’ll start with the 76ers who will be without Joel Embiid again tonight. Here is how things shake out for those most impacted by Embiid being out…
- Ben Simmons – 28.2% usage rate; 1.2 fpm
- Tobias Harris – 21.8% usage rate; 0.94 fpm
- Jimmy Butler – 25.3% usage rate; 1.2 fpm
- Boban Marjanovic – 23.7% usage rate; 1.1 fpm
- JJ Redick – 24.5% usage rate; 0.93 fpm
All of these guys are in play tonight with my favorite probably being Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris. Boban has seen a price boost, as he should. This will cause his ownership to go down, but maybe for good reason. This game may be too quick for Boban to stay on the floor, I’ll likely stay away here.
5-star play: Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, Jimmy Butler
4-star play: JJ Redick
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Mike Scott
GPP Sleeper: Boban Marjanovic, Mike Scott
As for the Pelicans, it sounds like Anthony Davis will play tonight. I don’t have any interest in Davis until his price tag is below $7k, to be honest. Julius Randle and Jrue Holiday both had big games last time out and I like them tonight in this fast-paced game. Cheick Diallo’s price has skyrocketed, with Davis back I’ll likely fade him here and see how he does relative to his price tag. Elfrid Payton played 36 minutes in their last game and if he’s going to see 30+ minutes nightly I will be all over him. He has triple-double upside every time he steps on the floor.
5-star play: Julius Randle, Elfrid Payton
4-star play: Jrue Holiday
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: None
GPP Sleeper: None
Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Clippers
Vegas Total: 227.0
Vegas Spread: Lac -5.5
Pace: Dal +1.9
This is the only 10:30 game on the slate so if you need a late night hammer you’ll have limited options. Starting with the Mavericks, Luka Doncic is currently listed as questionable. Jalen Brunson will likely start if he is ruled out. If he’s out, Tim Hardaway Jr sees the biggest boost with nearly a 33% usage rate. If Doncic plays, he’s priced reasonably and has triple-double upside so he makes for a good gpp play. Dorian Finney-Smith and Dwight Powell are good value plays as well. Finney-Smith just can’t seem to get a price bump on Draftkings, but that’s alright he keeps getting overlooked anyway.
5-star play: Tim Hardawy Jr. (If Doncic is OUT)
4-star play: Luka Doncic (If Active), Dorian Finney-Smith, Dwight Powell
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Dorian Finney-Smith, Dwight Powell
GPP Sleeper: None
From the Clippers, I don’t plan on having much exposure, but Lou Williams is my favorite play. He’s an elite fantasy point per minute guy scoring close to 1.3 per minute. He also leads the team in usage at 32.6%, if you want someone from this game he and Finney-Smith are my favorite targets. As for the rest of this team, they are gpp plays or last guys into your lineup type guys. These include Danilo Gallinari, Montrezl Harrell, and Ivica Zubac.
5-star play: Lou Williams
4-star play: Danilo Gallinari, Montrezl Harrel, Ivica Zubac
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Landry Shamet
GPP Sleeper: Montrezl Harrell, Ivica Zubac, Danilo Gallinari
always I appreciate everyone who gave the game break a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches. If you don’t know about them, our two newest pages contain Breaking News and our exclusive Coaches’ Picks……both invaluable for late-breaking news and pivots in NBA.
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