Hello DFS Army members and happy February! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am one of the new content contributors here at DFS Army and I’m very excited to join the team! I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 5-6 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. I love the challenge that DFS brings and my main sports are basketball, football, and baseball. I play on both FanDuel and DraftKings and today we will be focusing mainly on FanDuel. I am also working on a Tutorial Article of how to use the RS Who’s Hot and Clock Watch tools to your advantage.
This article will be expanding into some new territory here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, are a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on.
If you’re playing on FanDuel as well, the Drop Score is a new wrinkle that we can use to our advantage, for advice on using the Drop Score: PLEASE READ THIS ARTICLE!
Alright that’s enough fluff, let’s get into it. This slate is well……ugly. 3 games spread throughout the day at 3:30, 5:00, and 7:30 so keep an eye on late breaking news in the coaches forums. On FanDuel I’d be careful and only play GPPs because with lock at 3:30 you could get screwed for the later two games. With only 3 games today there will be a few less Traps and Picks because the player pool simply isn’t that large. Let’s start out by taking a look at last articles traps.
Last Article’s Traps:
Noah Vonleh (16) – It appears that Vonleh is out of the doghouse and now Kornet is in…I think? I don’t know with Fizdale, but we’ll talk more about the Knicks later.
Justin Holiday (9.4) – I believe I predicted under 10 FPs with Parsons back in the mix as well…nailed it!
Steven Adams (47.5) – Adams looked healthy again and it seems that the All-Star Break is just what he needed to get back to his normal self.
Just Missed the Cut: Emmanuel Mudiay (31.7) – First game back and he plays 26 minutes and now cuts into DSJ’s time.
Now we’ll look at my picks from last article:
DeAndre’ Bembry (21.8) – Returned great value for his price point.
Andre Drummond (70.2) – Drummond crushed against the Hawks, just like we expected.
Delon Wright (15.3) – Saw solid minutes, but Conley took that game over.
Jeff Teague (29.7) – Solid game for Teague, but he still underperformed.
Luke Kennard (6) – I got nothing for this one, he barely played and Ellington played 37 minutes.
Dewayne Dedmon (40.4) – He got some extended run like I predicted, and he made the most of it, returning over 7x value.
Darren Collison (31.2) – Also had a solid game, but could’ve been better.
DeMar Derozan (44.8) – His coming home revenge game wasn’t as good as first one, but he still performed great.
Alright with the recap out of the way, let’s dig into today!
Value Traps
Luke Kornet ($4,500) – I’m honestly going to try and stay away from this Knicks team today, even on a small slate. Kornet seems to have taken Vonleh’s place in Fiz’s doghouse as he started last game and played only 11 minutes, whereas Vonleh played 25. He also gets an And1 rating today of 1, which is terrible in itself. The RS has both Vonleh and Kornet as your top values today with Kornet netting you 5.3x which I really don’t see happening. I’m honestly staying away from both as the Knicks rotation is still too unpredictable. Either player can switch roles at any time and where you don’t have a Drop Score on DK you really shouldn’t be taking that kind of risk, especially in cash games. The only Knick I’ll be rostering today is Dotson as the Spurs have been bleeding points to guards.
Monte Morris ($5,100) – It looks like the Monte Morris value train is gone. Isaiah Thomas has joined the Nuggets rotation after the All-Star Break and it appears that the person it will affect the most is Morris. His numbers are trending in the wrong direction, especially his minutes, as he played less than 20 last game.
This Nuggets back court is pretty crowded now with Murray, Barton, Beasley, Harris, Morris, and now Thomas. It appears Morris will be the odd man out moving forward.
Just Missed the Cut: Danny Green ($4,700) – Green is a guy who when he gets hot, can really be a great play and help you take down a GPP (happened with me once before) but today doesn’t appear to be one of those days. He doesn’t get a great matchup as Orlando is actually ranked 4th aDvP against SGs and has an And1 rating of 0.8. This game also has the lowest total (218.5) on the slate and I don’t see Green being a big part of the offense today. He’s also usually pretty dependent on scoring actual points for his fantasy production and usually doesn’t do much in the way of peripheral stats. I think there are better value options out there today.
Who’s Trending
Nikola Jokic ($11,400) – Just lock The Joker into your lineups tonight, there is no one on this Clippers team that can guard him and they are horrible at guarding big men. To be exact the Clippers are 28th aDvP at defending Centers. He put up just under 55 FPs last time out against them.
He’s the best pay up option on the board tonight, I like him way more than Kawhi.
Damyean Dotson ($4,300) – As I said above, Dotson will likely be the only Knick I roster today as he seems to have carved out a stable hold of 20+ minutes a game and the Spurs have been bleeding fantasy points to guards lately. He’s also trending up in the RS:
He’s been returning just under 6x value over his last 3 games and his minutes are trending upwards as well. You only need him to hit 20 FPs to hit value today, and on a small slate he is a solid value option.
Patty Mills ($4,600) – Mills is one of my favorite value plays today, as he’s played just under 30 minutes in 3 out of his last 4, and even with Derrick White coming back he still saw 28 minutes off the bench.
At only $4,600 he should crush value today, especially if this one gets out of hand as he will get additional minutes in the event of a blowout since Pop won’t want to risk White getting re-injured. He’s averaged 25 FPs over his last 10, which would get you 6.25x value with some upside as well with the matchup.
Other Guys I Like Tonight: Pascal Siakam ($7,600) – If Kawhi ends up resting today (seems like a day he would sit) we all know the drill by now, Siakam would become a lock as he has gone off the past few games that Kawhi sat out. Lou Williams ($7,900) – This game has the highest total on the slate (233) and the Clips will need Lou to score to keep this one competitive. The Nuggets are also in the bottom third of the league defensively against guards (22nd aDvP). Sweet Lou should be in for a nice game.
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I will be in there for a bit, but I am not coaching today) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!
