Hello DFS Army members and happy February! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am one of the new content contributors here at DFS Army and I’m very excited to join the team! I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 5-6 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. I love the challenge that DFS brings and my main sports are basketball, football, and baseball. I play on both FanDuel and DraftKings and today we will be focusing mainly on DraftKings. I am also working on a Tutorial Article of how to use the RS Who’s Hot and Clock Watch tools to your advantage.
This article will be expanding into some new territory here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, are a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on.
If you’re playing on FanDuel as well, the Drop Score is a new wrinkle that we can use to our advantage, for advice on using the Drop Score: PLEASE READ THIS ARTICLE!
Tonight we’ve got a solid 6 game slate for a Thursday night, and plenty of opportunities to make some money. Let’s look at yesterday’s article:
Last Article’s Traps:
Kenrich Williams (9.75) – Just like I predicted, he only played 24 minutes and Randle balled out in his revenge game.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (4.75) – Again, minutes weren’t there for him, as he only played 10 the entire game.
James Harden (50.25) – He played well, but 50 FPs still isn’t even 5x value. You were better off paying up for LeBron like I told you to. With the Giannis news it was an easy pivot to LeBron.
Just Missed the Cut: Thomas Bryant (30.25) – He did play well, but for the same price point you still were better off with Favors. Wayne Ellington (16.5) – Like I said, he doesn’t have the upside you’re looking for in GPPs.
Right on the money for the traps last night! Hope you listened!
Now we’ll look at my picks from last article:
Dwight Powell (27.25) – Not as good as the night before, but I said to temper expectations, he still returned 6.33x value.
Derrick Favors (37.25) – 8x value! The Clippers cannot defend bigs, it’s really hard to watch honestly. Favors crushed for us last night.
Marvin Bagley III (19.25) – This one really stung, He got hurt and missed out on the 4th quarter and the OT which would’ve likely pushed my lineups over the top. Luckily it appears its only a knee strain and not a torn ACL like they feared. Get better soon Bags!
Brandon Ingram (38.50) – He hit that 6x value mark we’re looking for in GPPs. Had both him and LeBron in my lineups last night on DK.
Delon Wright (17.50) – Avery Bradley playing hurt this play, as he only saw 22 minutes off the bench.
Tyus Jones (29.50) – My favorite value play of the night! 6.55x value.
Nicolas Batum (42.00) – I wish I listened to myself on this one, I knew he was going to crush and I only had him in 1 lineup. 8.9x value right here!!!
Alright, lets get into today!
Value Traps
Henry Ellenson ($3,700) – People will be flocking to this one after he put up 37 FPs last game out against the Magic and played 36 minutes off the bench. If you’ve been paying attention at all to my articles, then you know that David Fizdale’s rotations are as unpredictable as they come. He really rides the hot hand, and last game out that happened to be Ellenson. People will be chasing him again tonight, and while you have the Drop Score option on FanDuel (I think he’s a decent play on FanDuel), we don’t have that luxury on DraftKings. I still don’t have interest even if he starts, because with Fiz that really means nothing. Vonleh also started last game and only saw 11 minutes. Unless Ellenson gets out to another hot start, he likely won’t see over 20 minutes. Also keep in the back of your mind that the game before….he played 3 minutes. I won’t be stepping on this landmine tonight at least on DraftKings.
Kyle O’Quinn ($4,000) – People will see that Sabonis is out again and flock over to O’Quinn. The problem is Sabonis was out last game as well and he only played 11 minutes. The Pacers starters will be playing huge minutes again tonight, and they don’t rely too heavily on their bench players outside of Tyreke Evans and Cory Joseph. Let me put it this way…T.J. Leaf (Yeah remember him? Me either…) played more minutes than O’Quinn last night. The only way I’ll be rostering him tonight is if we get word that Myles Turner is out. If that news comes, then O’Quinn will become a great value play, but other than that happening, stay away.
PJ Tucker ($4,000) – 9.8%… no that’s not his expected ownership, that’s his usage rate and no that’s not a typo. Even with Faried off the floor, it jumps to an abysmal 10.4%. So even with Faried out tonight he still really is not a great option. He doesn’t look to do anything on the offensive end, and he scored 15 actual points last night, and he’s scored less than 10 actual points in 11 out of his last 13 games. He’s mostly on the floor to guard the other teams best player (YouTube the clip of him on KD against the Warriors). For GPPs we need that guy that is going to crush value, PJ Tucker isn’t that guy tonight. At his price, go with Bam Bam.
Just Missed the Cut: James Harden ($11,000) – He’s still too expensive, even with Faried likely sitting out tonight he just doesn’t have the ceiling he did when Paul and Capela were out. For your pay up options I would go with Chef Curry, KAT or The Joker all over Harden.
Who’s Trending
Darren Collison ($6,000) – Collison is popping the the RS, but actually for a good reason. At only $6,000 on DK he is a great option at one of your guard spots tonight. He has a higher And1 rating than most in that price range and the matchup and opportunity are there. The Pacers also get a pace-up matchup against the T-Wolves at +2.4. The T-Wolves are ranked 19th in overall team defensive efficiency, and 18th against PGs, but if Teague is out again he gets a matchup against the young Tyus Jones. Being a crafty veteran Collison should take full advantage against the young PG. He also should see over 30 minutes tonight, I like him a lot more if Teague is out.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,500) – KAT has been white hot since the All-Star break and gets another good matchup tonight against Myles Turner. He’s popping in our model:
He abused the Hawks last night, which was predictable and even though its on the second-half of a B2B, KAT is still young enough to bounce back. I have a feeling the Pacers may even have Turner sit out tonight to rest, and if they do that means he’d get a matchup against Kyle O’Quinn…..if that is the case I’ll be all in on KAT tonight. I also like Jokic as well if you’re paying up at Center in the late night hammer game.
Bam Adebayo ($4,000) – Whiteside didn’t travel with the team to play Houston, so just lock and load Adebayo at one of your forward spots and move on. He saw over 30 minutes last night and should see another 30+ minutes tonight. He averages around 1 FPPM so he should clear 30 FPs again tonight. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t give us at least 6x value tonight with some upside. Over his last 3 games he’s averaging over 6x value as well, so the consistency is there when he gets minutes:
Klay Thompson ($6,500) – As I’m typing this KD has been ruled out tonight due to rest. Many people will flock to Steph (and rightfully slow), but guess who sees the biggest usage bump with KD out? You guessed it, Mr. Klay Thompson, and it’s not just a minor spike either. 11%…that’s right. That bumps his usage up 39% and he averages 1.29 FPPM:
He played 37 minutes last night, and he should see 35+ again tonight. He also plays with the second unit and dominates usage there as well. You can play Klay, Steph, and Boogie all in one lineup tonight for sure, as they all see usage over 30% with Durant out. This game is also in Orlando, which should keep it decently competitive.
Tobias Harris ($7,300) – No Embiid, no Boban, it should be the Tobias Harris, Jimmy Butler, and Ben Simmons show against OKC tonight. With Embiid off the floor he’s playing over 35 minutes per game and has 50 point upside for sure, especially with an O/U of 239 there is going to be a lot of points scored tonight. This is one of the games to target tonight, you’ll need guys from this game in order to cash. Harris is my favorite of the bunch with his price. Doesn’t hurt that he’ll be guarded by Jerami Grant who sat almost the whole 4th quarter against Denver because he was a liability on the defensive end. Harris checks all the boxes for me tonight. He’s also trending upward with Embiid out:
Other Guys I Like Tonight: Derrick Favors ($4,500) –Crushes value last night at 8x and his salary is $100 less tonight….sign me up again! He’s way too underpriced at the moment and we should keep exploiting it. Jonah Bolden ($4,000) and Mike Scott ($3,800) – This is based on who starts, don’t play both of them. No Embiid and no Boban tonight these two should split all the minutes at the 5. I’d roll with who we get word is starting as they will likely see more minutes.
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
PERSONAL NOTE: WITH PG13 RULED OUT EVERYONE WILL FLOCK TO RUSS AND FOR GOOD REASON. HOWEVER THAT WILL ALSO CAUSE JIMMY BUTLER TO GUARD HIM ALL NIGHT, SO TEMPER YOUR EXPECTATIONS A BIT. STILL IT’S HARD TO FADE HIM.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I am your FanDuel coach for tonight!) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!
