Hello DFS Army members and happy February! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am one of the new content contributors here at DFS Army and I’m very excited to join the team! I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 5-6 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. I love the challenge that DFS brings and my main sports are basketball, football, and baseball. I play on both FanDuel and DraftKings and today we will be focusing mainly on DraftKings. I am also working on a Tutorial Article of how to use the RS Who’s Hot and Clock Watch tools to your advantage.
This article will be expanding into some new territory here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, are a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on.
If you’re playing on FanDuel as well, the Drop Score is a new wrinkle that we can use to our advantage, for advice on using the Drop Score: PLEASE READ THIS ARTICLE!
Tonight we’ve got an awesome, 11 game slate, that has plenty of high totals and we’ll need to sift through these games in order to find the value. This slate has a lot of potential for traps so let’s keep an eye out for those, and as always, keep an eye out for your late breaking news.
Last Article’s Traps:
Wayne Ellington (16.75) – Just like we predicted, if you played him on DK you probably lost.
Derrick Jones Jr. (0) – Ended up getting scratched.
Patrick Beverley (45) – This one honestly shocked me, he hasn’t been playing great and was on the second half of a B2B and ended up smashing.
Just Missed the Cut: Dion Waiters (30.5) – DJJ getting scratched limited their rotation, he played horribly in the first half and most of his FPs came in the second half. Dwyane Wade also had a down game which helped Waiters soak up additional FPs.
Now we’ll look at my picks from last article:
Jonas Valanciunas (41.25) – Good for 6.44x value, he was in almost everyone of my lineups. Him and KAT were the top center options. KAT worried me coming back from sitting out 2 games, but he smashed last night as well. I liked JoVal better at a cheaper price.
Robin Lopez (34.75) – He kept up that value streak of over 8x, he was good for 8.5x value on DK last night.
Dwight Powell (49.0) – TALK ABOUT SMASH!!! The Clippers might be worse at guarding bigs than the Nets. He gave up 12.3x value. Unreal!
Eric Gordon (28.0) – Both Gordon and Harden disappointed against this horrible Hawks perimeter defense. He got off to a slow start but made up for it towards the end of the game. Still got us 6.1x value.
Ben Simmons (36.0) – Simmons was on pace to smash value last night, but disappeared in the second half. He came out as aggressive as I’ve seen him in the first half and looked poised to put up over 50FPs last night, but in the end it just didn’t happen.
Value Traps
Kenrich Williams ($5,300) – It’s a sad day to see #KennyHustle make the list, but it looks like he’s no longer the value that he once was. He’s still seeing over 20 minutes a game, but with the Pelicans having AD, Randle, and Elfrid Payton back he’s become their last option on offense in the starting five and the competition for rebounds is much stiffer with AD and Randle downlow. Add in the inclusion of Cheick Diallo, Jahlil Okafor, and E’Twaun Moore all chipping in at least 15 minutes and I think you’ll see Williams’ minutes continue to trend downward as their rotation at the 3/4 spot is now very crowded. Darius Miller is also probable today, which muddies that up even more. He played 34 minutes out last time against the Lakers, but AD, Moore, and Miller all didn’t play in that one. If we get word that any of the Pelicans front court won’t play tonight (mostly AD/Okafor/Moore) then I would bump Kenrich out of this list and he should be a decent value. He’s projected at 5.6x value tonight, but I see him being closer to 4-4.5x if he’s lucky. Not what were looking for on a big slate like tonight.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ($3,200) – MKG hasn’t made this list in a few weeks, but he’s popping in the RS again tonight. Tonight is going to be a night where you’re going to need to be almost perfect with your value picks in order to cash, and there are better options on the slate than MKG. He’s scored less than 15 FPs in 8 of his last 9 games and the RS has him projected to play 28 minutes tonight, which I don’t see happening as he has played less than 17 minutes of 4 of his last 5. Also, Charlotte is also going to be relying on Batum to chase around Harden tonight. He’s also been losing minutes to Miles Bridges as Charlotte wants to see what they have in their rookie, and he has been adjusting well into the starting role. We can even compare the two in our Research Station:
As you can see, MKG has been netting 3.8x value over his last 3, while Bridges is giving over 5x on average. For the price-point it really makes sense to pay the extra $200 in salary to get the guy who will play more minutes and is starting against a guy seeing inconsistent minutes off the bench. I’d bet a solid amount of money that MKG doesn’t hit 6.9x value tonight and even if he does, he really doesn’t have the upside you’re looking for to win a GPP. I’ll be X’ing him out of my player pool tonight, and I suggest you do the same.
James Harden ($11,200) – Harden is simply still too overpriced with the Rockets back at full strength. I won’t be touching him until his price comes down back into the low $10,000 range. Just take a look at his numbers with CP3 and Capela back:
Harden also hasn’t topped 50 FPs since Capela came back after the All-Star break, I know it’s a small sample but that says a lot:
Harden didn’t even hit 40 FPs against the Hawks! That was really telling to me as they can’t defend anyone. I understand if you roster him as a contrarian play, but his ceiling really is limited with Paul and Capela back, even more so if Faried continues to start. For GPP’s we’re looking for at least 6x value from him, which would need to be 67 FPs and he hasn’t sniffed that range since early February. Harden is my least favorite pay-up option tonight. For paying up in that range, go with Giannis or LeBron in the late night hammer games.
Just Missed the Cut: Thomas Bryant ($4,600) – Not gonna lie I was looking at Bryant earlier today as a solid play against the Nets, but after exchanging ideas with the other coaches we came to the conclusion that there’s no need to chase him tonight with all the great value at the F/C position. He only got extended run last game out due to foul trouble and he will likely see under 20 minutes tonight. He’s a trap tonight that people will be chasing. Wayne Ellington ($3,600) – Him and Kennard are basically splitting time 50/50 at the 2 and I don’t think it’s long until Ellington falls out of favor and Kennard takes over. He gives you nothing in peripheral stats and is entirely scoring dependent. He’s another guy that lacks the upside we’re looking for tonight.
And as always: DON’T PLAY JUSTIN HOLIDAY!!!
Who’s Trending
Dwight Powell ($4,300) – He’s way too underpriced on DraftKings, especially if he continues to start at the 5 over Mejri. I don’t see him exploding for another 50 burger in this one, as the Clippers are one of the worst teams in the league at defending bigs, but he’s super efficient and you only need him to score 21 FPs for 5x value. He should play over 30 minutes again tonight and I see him scoring somewhere in the 30-40 FP range which should be around 8-9x value. He’s trending in all the right directions in the model as well:
If we get word that he’s starting again I’ll probably just be hitting the lock button on him at the Center position, and with the flexibility of DraftKings I think you’ll want multiple Centers tonight (possibly even 3 if you get one that has PF eligibility).
Derrick Favors ($4,600) – He’s basically in the same position Paul Millsap was a few days ago, simply underpriced for his production and as we saw with Dwight Powell and Millsap, the Clippers can’t defend bigs (might actually be worse than Brooklyn!). He should see around 25-30 minutes tonight and only needs around 20 FPs to get you that 5x value you want in cash. Against this bad Clippers interior he should easily be able to get you 30+ FPs especially if he sees closer to 30 minutes tonight. Favors is also trending in the right direction as he’s averaging just under 6 FPPG more over his last 3 and like I said already, he has a cake matchup tonight. He’s just way too underpriced on DK and will be a cash game lock for me tonight. The Sim Model lovessssssssss Favors:
Marvin Bagley III ($6,700) – Many were saying that Bagley was a bust for the Kings (which is wayyyyyyyyy to early), but now he’s had over half a season to adjust to the NBA, he’s been absolutely crushing lately. Let’s take a look:
He is absolutely SCORCHING HOT right now! He’s also found his way into the starting lineup last game, and it is well deserved as he’s been dominant. The Kings have also been phenomenal at home and this is going to be a fast paced, tight game, and the Kings will need Bagley to continue to ball out if they want to take down the Bucks. The ceiling is always there with Bagley, but he’s finally rounding into being consistent as well. There’s a bit of risk here tonight as he is still a rookie, but for $6,700 I’ll take the guy who is going to play close to 35+ minutes tonight. Bump him down a bit if we get word he’s not starting, but I don’t see anyway he doesn’t tonight. I’ll have plenty of MBIII (start the trend) tonight.
Brandon Ingram ($6,400) – Alright, that’s enough big plays for tonight, lets get to some other positions. Ingram has both PG/SG eligibility and makes a great play at either of them tonight. Say what you want about the controversy surrounding this team, but I still think they can sneak into the 8 seed and Ingram has been doing everything in his power to accomplish that. He’s really taken on the #2 role on this team and has been scorching since the All-Star Break:
They also face off against the Pelicans, who will likely have AD tonight (he didn’t play their last game) and with all the trade rumors he’s going to want to show out. As a Celtics fan I’ll even say that Ingram is better than Tatum (that was for you Bear!). He should smash at his price point tonight. The Sim Model likes him as well:
Delon Wright ($4,100) – Need some value at the guard position tonight, well I present to you Mr. Wright (Sorry that was bad). He’s adjusting well to his new role with the Grizzlies, and should see close to 30 minutes off the bench tonight and has a decent ceiling of around 40 FPs… which could get you close to 10x value, especially if Avery Bradley sits out as well. If Bradley sits he becomes my second favorite value guard play tonight (1st goes to Tyus Jones if Teague sits).
Other Guys I Like Tonight: Tyus Jones ($4,500) – Only if Teague is out again, if Teague is out he’s basically a free square on all sites tonight. Nicolas Batum ($4,600) – He should see 35+ minutes tonight chasing around James Harden, he could hit value in peripheral stats alone, he’s heating up as well.
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I will be unavailable after 4PM ET though) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!
