Hello DFS Army members and happy February! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am one of the new content contributors here at DFS Army and I’m very excited to join the team! I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 5-6 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. I love the challenge that DFS brings and my main sports are basketball, football, and baseball. I play on both FanDuel and DraftKings and today we will be focusing mainly on DraftKings. I am also working on a Tutorial Article of how to use the RS Who’s Hot and Clock Watch tools to your advantage.
This article will be expanding into some new territory here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, are a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on.
If you’re playing on FanDuel as well, the Drop Score is a new wrinkle that we can use to our advantage, for advice on using the Drop Score: PLEASE READ THIS ARTICLE!
Tonight we’ve got an awesome, 11 game slate, that has plenty of high totals and we’ll need to sift through these games in order to find the value. This slate has a lot of potential for traps so let’s keep an eye out for those, and as always, keep an eye out for your late breaking news.
Last Article’s Traps (This is FanDuel scoring as yesterday I focused on FanDuel):
Luke Kornet (0) – He didn’t even play! DNP-CD, safe to say he’s in Fiz’s doghouse right now.
Monte Morris (27.7) – The Nuggets blew out the Clippers, which got him some additional playing time.
Just Missed the Cut: Danny Green (21.2) – He was aided by Kawhi being out, but if you won on FanDuel yesterday, you needed Derozan and Terrence Ross. He still returned less than 5x value.
Now we’ll look at my picks from last article:
Nikola Jokic (51.7) – He would’ve gotten closer to 60 FPs if he didn’t pick up his 4th foul early in the 3rd quarter just to argue with the referee. Without that he goes for 60+ FPs.
Damyean Dotson (39.0) – Told you, the Spurs bleed FPs to guards this year. It’s a matchup to target in the future.
Patty Mills (15.6) – This was a letdown, especially after we got news that White was available but wouldn’t play.
Pascal Siakam (33.7) – He became a lock after Kawhi was ruled out. Performed well, but not as well as he had in the past.
Lou Williams (29.4) – Disappointed in how he played, he should’ve had 40+ if he was more aggressive.
Alright with the recap out of the way, let’s dig into today!
Value Traps
Wayne Ellington ($3,700) – The Pistons are still figuring out their rotation at the 2 guard spot with the departure of Reggie Bullock. In his first game against the Hawks, he started and played 37 minutes, while Kennard only played 16. In the next game, he started and only played 25 minutes, while Kennard played 33. Langston Galloway is also in the mix for minutes as well and it seems as though Dwane Casey will go with the hot hand moving forward. During the season, Ellington is averaging 0.54 FPPM and is highly scoring dependent in order to produce fantasy points. His lack of peripheral stats also really hurt his ceiling, and when I’ve used him in the past he usually starts out hot and then disappears for the rest of the game. His usage is also pretty low, even though it does take into account he played the first half of the season with the Heat.
On DraftKings where your value plays make or break your lineup. There will be better options out there that have less risk the Mr. Ellington.
Derrick Jones Jr. ($3,400) – DJJ is popping in the RS as your top value option on the slate today. In the two games since coming back, he’s played 17 and 27 minutes off the bench. The problem with Miami, is that they have a very deep rotation, and play a lot of guys substantial minutes. Last game out they played 12 guys and Dragic is back as well and will likely see his minutes increase a bit as well which further muddies this rotation. James Johnson being doubtful does help DJJ as he will absorb those minutes, but I’ve been burned a few times by him. He doesn’t really look to score either and is more of a high flyer, as shown by his 4 attempted shots in 27 minutes last game. He’s also only scored 12 and 12.75 FPs. I can see if you want to play him for the upside as he does have a high floor of over 40FPs, but I think he’ll be closer to his floor and I don’t think you’ll get anywhere close to the projected 7.5x value. He’s been the top value option in the RS before and burned us there as well. There are better options out there but I could see throwing him in a couple lines if you are MME’ing, but I still think he’s a landmine tonight.
Patrick Beverley ($4,600) – Beverley is coming in the the 2nd game of a B2B and isn’t exactly a spring chicken anymore. The entire Clippers team didn’t play well yesterday and today they get a matchup with Dallas and while the total isn’t out yet, it will likely be one of the lowest totals on the slate. The pace of play is also -1.9 which isn’t huge, but is a slowdown from their pace. Beverley has also been effected by the inclusion of Shamet into the Clippers rotation and will likely lose a few minutes there between the younger Shamet and Gilgeous-Alexander due to the back to back. Digging deeper into the RS we have this below:
If you’re eyeing him for cash, he only hits that 5x value 29% of the time, which as you can see is in the red. Nevermind if you’re looking at him in GPPs as he hits that 6x only 27% of the time. Either way this game is setting up to be a let down from Beverley and I don’t see him getting you 6x value.
Just Missed the Cut: Dion Waiters ($4,700) – With Dragic back and Wade playing 25+ minutes off the bench, even with Winslow out I don’t see Waiters playing the 35 minutes he’s projected to. He’s another victim of this deep Heat rotation.
Who’s Trending
Jonas Valanciunas ($6,400) – Valanciunas has taken on the role of Marc Gasol in this Grizzlies offense since he was traded from the Raptors, which is great for us as he is still underpriced on DraftKings at only $6,400. Let’s look at his numbers shall we?
The Lakers are also ranked 24th aDvP against Centers and the Grizzlies get the biggest pace-up matchup of the day at +7.8. Since joining Memphis, J-Val is seeing a ridiculous 32.6% usage rate and is averaging over 1.5 FPPM. He should see around 30 minutes tonight and I think he has a floor of 30FPs tonight, and if his numbers hold he should put up 45-50 tonight which is the upside we need. He’ll be in a lot of my lineups.
Robin Lopez ($4,100) – I know this is a non-sexy pick, but just take a look at his numbers:
He’s AVERAGING 8x value over his last 3, and Giannis is doubtful tonight, which means there is a better chance of this game staying somewhat competitive. He should play close to 30 minutes today, and also gets to face off against his twin brother, so you know that he’ll want to outplay him. I’m a big fan of him as a value play tonight.
Dwight Powell ($4,000) – If you don’t like RoLo tonight, I have a nice pivot off him as well. The Clippers are almost as bad at defending bigs as the Nets. I watched them play the Nuggets last night and both Jokic and especially Millsap were able to do whatever they wanted against them. Kleber is also a GTD tonight and if he is out again that opens around 30 minutes for Powell off the bench as last time out Carlisle was forced to start Dirk. With his efficiency and this bad Clippers defense Powell should be able to do whatever he wants and I see him with a solid double-double tonight with some upside. I like him more if Kleber sits though.
Eric Gordon ($4,600) – I like Gordon tonight even if Harden plays, but if Harden is out again then Gordon is a free square. They get the Hawks who we all know can’t defend the perimeter and they are also down Taurean Prince who is one of their better (but still not great) defenders. It doesn’t hurt that he’s heating up as well…
Over his last 5 he’s averaging close to 30 FPs per game and seeing over 30 minutes a game as well. If you want to cash tonight you’re going to need members of the Rockets backcourt.
Ben Simmons ($8,000) – If you remember my articles from before the All-Star break, I said that Simmons would need either Butler, Embiid or Harris to get hurt, as he was the one most impacted by the arrival of Tobias Harris. Embiid is still out tonight, which opens up that usage for Simmons and he is underpriced on DraftKings. With Embiid off the floor he’s been heating up as well:
This game also has a massive total of 238, so there will be a ton of scoring. Add in the fact that he gets matched up with Elfrid Payton on defense tonight and Jrue Holiday on a minutes limit, Simmons should be able to do whatever he wants tonight.
Other Guys I Like Tonight: Khris Middleton ($6,300) and Malcolm Brodgon ($5,400) – Giannis is doubtful tonight, and everyone in the Bucks starting 5 will see a nice bump in usage. Bledsoe has been cold lately and is trending downward in the model, Middleton sees a 7.3% usage bump and Brogdon sees a 5.7% usage bump with Giannis off the floor. Both are underpriced if he sits tonight.
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I will be in there for a bit, but I am not coaching today) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!
