Hello DFS Army members and happy February! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am one of the new content contributors here at DFS Army and I’m very excited to join the team! I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 5-6 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. I love the challenge that DFS brings and my main sports are basketball, football, and baseball. I play on both FanDuel and DraftKings and today we will be focusing mainly on DraftKings. I am also working on a Tutorial Article of how to use the RS Who’s Hot and Clock Watch tools to your advantage.
This article will be expanding into some new territory here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, are a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on. So with that said, lets dig in!
Still unsure about DFS Army? Check out user goosebumps night with a little help from yours truly. He took home a GPP and a grand total of over $3,000! Join today!
Now, let’s dig in to today’s slate!
For advice on how to build your lineups with the Drop Score, PLEASE READ THIS ARTICLE!
Value Traps
Noah Vonleh ($3,900) – Back from the All-Star break and I don’t expect Vonleh to be out of the Fiz’s doghouse just yet. With how bad the Knicks have been playing I can see him mixing it up in the near future but I’d like to see a game or two before I hop back on playing Knicks aside from DSJ. He’s still averaging around 16 minutes a game and with that amount of playing time he’s not going to get you the value you’re looking for at his price tag. His usage is also right at 14.5% which is pretty abysmal as well. It’s really hard to predict this Knicks rotation because last game out the majority of the players off the bench actually played more minutes than the starters, so even if Vonleh starts again it’s nothing to get excited about. Take a look at his numbers:
He’s trending down in all the wrong directions and only netting you 3.1x value and averaging 10.8FPs over his last 5. Until we see Vonleh getting some consistent minutes I’m going to be avoiding him along with a lot of the Knicks players, aside from Mitchell Robinson and DSJ.
Justin Holiday ($4,500) – With the new blood on the Grizzlies it has made Holiday even more useless than before. He is still starting but saw a drastic minutes reduction with the addition of Avery Bradley, Delon Wright, and CJ Miles. His usage is continuing to trend downward as it is now sitting at 15.8%. Now Chandler Parsons is back and will be added to the rotation, this will likely effect Holiday the most and cut into his minutes even more. He’s being projected for 33 minutes in the Research Station but I see that realistically being closer to 20. The RS is projecting him to garner 5x value which I don’t see him coming close to. He’s averaging 0.69 FPPM on the season, and at 20 minutes that’s only going to net you 13.8 FPs which is only good for 3x value if he even hits that. My guess is that Holiday will actually score under 10 FPs on the night. Take a peek at his Clock Watch, it’s trending downward and will likely continue to trend downward for the rest of the season.
I’m X’ing Holiday out when I run the DS tonight, and you should too.
Steven Adams ($6,200) – Something has been off with Adams as he hasn’t topped 30 FPs in each of the last 5 games before the All-Star Break. Maybe he just needed a break to heal up and get back to normal, but at $6,200 he’s going to need to get you 31 FPs to hit that 5x value you are looking for at minimum, never mind the upside. I want to see him in action at least for this first game back to see if he is back at full strength. Utah also has gotten away from being a good defensive team this year, but Rudy Gobert is still an above average defender and presents a tough matchup as well. The Thunder will rely heavily on Westbrook and PG13 tonight and I see Adams having another bad night tonight with all of the factors I mentioned above.
Just Missed the Cut: Emmanuel Mudiay ($4,600) – The RS is projecting him to net you 5.3x value tonight in his first game back from injury. At his price point I don’t see that happening especially with DSJ taking over the starting PG role for the Knicks. He will likely also be on a minutes limit tonight in his return back. I’ll be staying away.
Who’s Trending
DeAndre’ Bembry ($3,300) – Bembry is popping in the Research Station today, and he represents great value today as it looks like Huerter will sit this one out with a sprained ankle which should open up around 25-30 minutes for Bembry and Bazemore to split. Bembry saw over 20 minutes the last two games before the All-Star break and should see close to 30 minutes today. Bembry averages 0.80 FPPM which should be good for around 24 FPs today which would net you over 7x value. I like both him and Bazemore today, but between the two I’ll be rolling with Bembry for the discount.
Andre Drummond ($9,000) – At his price point on DK, Drummond is almost a free square tonight. He’s way underpriced at only $9,000 and they’re playing the Hawks who can’t guard anyone. If you want to cash, stack players against the Hawks for the rest of the season. Drummond should have his way down low tonight and should grab a ton of boards. The Hawks rank 28th in defensive efficiency and are ranked in the bottom third of the league aDvP against Centers. The Pistons also get the biggest pace-up matchup tonight which increases Drummond’s ceiling even more. I can see him going for 50+ easily tonight. It also helps that he was on a tear before the ASB:
He’s averaging almost 7x value and over 60 FPs over his last 3 games. He also has the highest And1 rating on the night as well. He’s as hot as they get, and with the cake matchup he has tonight he should continue his hot streak.
Delon Wright ($3,700) – Even with Conley playing tonight I still really like Wright tonight. He’s carving out a significant role with the Grizzlies and even with Conley back he still saw 26 minutes off the bench and put up 29 FPs last time out. I could see him getting another 25ish minutes tonight and getting close to 25-30 FPs which would be good for over 7x value and should allow you to pay up for some studs tonight. He’s averaging over 6 more minutes per game since joining the Grizzlies, and I see him continuing his strong play and leading the second unit tonight against the Clippers.
Jeff Teague ($5,900) – Since coming back from injury Teague was absolutely ON FIRE before the All-Star break. Take a look:
The Knicks are middle of the pack at guarding PGs, but either way Teague should get his tonight. There’s news that Karl-Anthony Towns might not play tonight as well because he was in a car accident yesterday. If Towns sits tonight I would plug Teague in almost everywhere tonight because it should likely make this game at least somewhat competitive. At under 6K on DraftKings, Teague should absolutely crush value tonight.
Luke Kennard ($4,000) – If you’ve been reading my articles there are two things that I have harped on. 1) Play Centers vs. the Nets, and 2) Play Shooting Guards vs. the Hawks. With Bullock out of the picture, it has opened up a ton of minutes for Luke Kennard and he should see close to 35 minutes again tonight. The Hawks are pitiful at defending anyone, but they are especially pitiful against Shooting Guards. His usage is on the rise as well as it has bumped up to around 18% and is actually closer to 20% with Bullock out of the picture. I actually like both Kennard and Wayne Ellington as they should both see 30+ minutes tonight.
Other Guys I Like Tonight: Dewayne Dedmon ($5,100) – Surprisingly, with Huerter off the floor, Dedmon sees the biggest usage bump at +2.8%, add in the fact that he’ll likely need to play more minutes tonight to guard Drummond and Dedmon represents a really solid play tonight as long as he stays out of foul trouble. Darren Collison ($5,700) – Collison gets the best matchup against the Pels tonight as they are ranked 28th aDvP vs. PGs and we know that Jrue Holiday will be on a minutes limit so he should see plenty of Elfrid Peyton tonight, who is a horrid defender. Collison should be in store for a solid game tonight. DeMar Derozan ($7,300) – He’s returning to Toronto for the first time since being traded, and he put up over 60 FPs last time against the Raptors. Aldridge is also a GTD tonight and if he sits DeMar will be in all of my lineups tonight.
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I will be in there for a bit, but I am not coaching today) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!
