Hello DFS Army members and happy February! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am one of the new content contributors here at DFS Army and I’m very excited to join the team! I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 5-6 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. I love the challenge that DFS brings and my main sports are basketball, football, and baseball. I play on both FanDuel and DraftKings so this article will be tailored towards those two sites. I am also working on a Tutorial Article of how to use the RS Who’s Hot and Clock Watch tools to your advantage.
This article will be expanding into some new territory here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, are a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on. So with that said, lets dig in!
Still unsure about DFS Army? Check out user goosebumps night with a little help from yours truly. He took home a GPP and a grand total of over $3,000! Join today!
Last articles Traps:
Will Barton (32.1) – Watched this game during dinner last night, I was surprised to see the ball in Barton’s hands so much, this will be a very interesting situation to watch when Harris gets back. Beasley took the hit this game instead of Barton like I was expecting.
Tyler Johnson (12) – Just as we predicted, he looked all out of sync last night with his new team. I expect him to be a solid value moving forward as he acclimates to his new team.
Taj Gibson (18.8) – Saric actually played more minutes than Gibson last night. Most of Gibson’s FPs also came in the first quarter via a few easy layups.
Just Missed the Cut: Allonzo Trier (14.6) – He seemed to benefit the most from the WesMat buyout, as he got back up to 30 minutes. Still didn’t do much with it. DeAndre Ayton (46.4) – The Suns surprised the hell out of me in this one, with no Booker I would’ve swore this game would’ve been close to over after the 1st quarter. The Suns look like they’ve turned a corner! Kenrich Williams (31.2) – This one I did not see coming either, even with AD and Randle back he still saw 37 minutes! Collin Sexton (34.6)– 38 minutes will do that, he’s due for a letdown game, mark my words.
Now, let’s dig in to today’s slate!
For advice on how to build your lineups with the Drop Score, PLEASE READ THIS ARTICLE!
Value Traps
DeAndre Bembry (DK $4,000 FD $3,600)
Bembry’s fantasy point production has fallen off a cliff since Taurean Prince and Kent Bazemore returned to the Hawks rotation. Don’t believe me? Just take a look:
The Research Station is telling us that it is projecting him to net 5.1x value on FD and 4.5x on DK. He’s cheap on FanDuel and Drop Score Worthy, but there are plenty of other options for you to choose from tonight. As you can see, over his last 3, he’s netting you 2.1x-2.2x value between the two sites. He’s lost over 7 minutes of playing time and because of that his production has taken a big dive. The numbers are telling us that Bembry is the odd man out in the Hawks rotation with Prince and Bazemore’s return. I’ll be taking him out of my player pool tonight.
Ante Zizic (DK $5,000 FD $5,000)
I think that the Cavs will want to see what they have in Marquese Chriss as was evident by the drop in Zizic’s minutes with him being added to the team. Zizic was trending downward before Chriss got there as well and the minutes seemingly just won’t be there for him moving forward unless he really steps up his play. Take a look:
Nance Jr. has really stepped up his play as well and both Love and Frye only played 6 and 3 minutes last night and Zizic still saw only 16 minutes. If the Pacers continue their trend of blowing out teams I think Chriss would be the one that benefits the most from that as it will give the coaching staff an opportunity to get him some extended run. At $5,000 on both sites he’s going to need 25FPs to pay off his salary, I’m skeptical about that happening tonight.
Kevin Knox (DK $4,900 FD $4,900)
This one goes to more of a matchup problem than anything else. Fizdale for whatever reason started Noah Vonleh and benched him for the remainder of the game after only 3 minutes so it’s to be seen if Vonleh will continue to start moving forward. If Vonleh starts again he should be at the 4 which would put Knox at the 3…against Kawhi (if he plays, I’m assuming he does). In which case I want no part of that matchup. Kawhi is one of the best defenders in the league and even with Knox getting over 30 minutes a game I don’t see him doing much fantasy-wise. Knox hasn’t been doing much even with all of the playing time as if you look at his Who’s Hot section he’s also trending in the wrong direction, that’s a lot of red.
If Kawhi ends up sitting again then I would bump him up a bit as he should see 30+ minutes once again and be a decent value, but I think there are better options on this slate. Knox can also get the Fiz treatment and be benched at any moment for no reason which adds to the risk.
Just Missed the Cut: DeWayne Dedmon – He’s trending downward as well and Charlotte isn’t easy on Cs. Kawhi Leonard – Kawhi has been ice cold lately and his price tag isn’t dropping, at $9,900 and $9,300 and if he plays I see them making easy work of the Knicks.
Who’s Trending
Kemba Walker (DK $9,100 FD $10,000)
Cardiac Kembaaaaaaaaaa. I grew up in Connecticut so I am a die hard UConn fan, so it warms my heart to see one of my favorite players tearing it up as of late. I mean seriously…
He’s averaging over 16 FPs more per game over his last 3 and has scored over 50 FPs in his last 3 games and oh……..did I mention they’re playing the Hawks tonight? As of the latest rankings, the Hawks are ranked dead last aDvP against PGs. All the data is pointing to another big night for Kemba. He’s slightly underpriced on DK as well at only $9,100.
Lauri Markkanen (DK $7,500 FD $7,900)
I’m going back to the well tonight as we even get a $200 savings on FanDuel. He’s going to see close to 40 minutes again and has even slid over and played some at the 5 last night. I think he’s going to be popular but he’s going to be worth it. The numbers are even greener than yesterday:
Markkanen is a phenomenal play again tonight and his floor should be around 35FPs. I see him playing a bit angry tonight against his old teammates as well, as it seems as though things didn’t end on great terms with him and Portis at least. Washington is also 26th aDvP against PFs and are still middle of the road at defending the 5 for when he slides over there. I’m locking him in everywhere again tonight.
Ivica Zubac (DK $3,500 FD $3,900)
This one could be really juicy depending on whether or not Zubac starts. I have a feeling he will as Doc likes Harrell off the bench as he seems to be more effective there. Even if Zubac comes off the bench he should see plenty of playing time to acclimate with his new team. I believe Zubac will see around 20-25 minutes in his debut and that is more than enough time to pay off his measly price tag. He makes for a phenomenal Drop Score Candidate on FanDuel tonight and if we get word that he’s starting I’ll be locking him in everywhere. Even if we get news that he will play at least 20 minutes tonight I will be locking him in.
Jabari Parker (DK $4,800 FD $3,900)
JABARI PARKER REVENGE GAME!!! Just a few days after being traded he and Bobby Portis get to face their old team. If you’ve watched at all this year they’re both going to want to destroy this Bulls team. Portis is the safer option, as Parker does come with risk so buyer beware. But I see him wanting to show the Bulls how wrong they were about him. He should see a solid amount of playing time off the bench and is the definition of a boom or bust GPP play. Him and Zubac will likely be my Top 2 Drop Score Candidates on FanDuel tonight. I think Parker is a bit safer than normal tonight due to the revenge factor, as we know NBA players can be very spiteful.
Bobby Portis (DK $5,400 FD $6,500)
Portis is either going to leave this game stuffing the stat sheet, or getting stuffed in the back of a cop car. Both he and Parker are not happy with how things ended in Chicago as shown by his Twitter:
Getting flamed by the Bulls staff isn’t going to end well for them in this game. This is the ultimate revenge game narrative here and Portis is heating up with back to back 30 actual point games. He should see some solid playing time tonight and we know he wants to show out tonight. Portis does have a temper though so keep an ejection possibility in the back of your mind.
Other Guys I Like: Larry Nance Jr. – Love re-injured himself again last night and likely won’t play in this one. Nance has been Trending Up lately as well and should see some solid run tonight. Ricky Rubio – Rubio is trending up in the model as well, and San Antonio is ranked 27th aDvP against Point Guards. Kenrich Williams – Even with AD back he still saw 37 minutes. My guess is AD will be out on the second half of a B2B tonight which should open up those minutes for him. Eric Bledsoe – I’m going back to the well tonight here too, Brodgon is a ball hog and Sterling Brown playing well off the bunch which ate into his minutes a bit.
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I will be in there for a bit, but I am not coaching today) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!
