Hello DFS Army members and happy February! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am one of the new content contributors here at DFS Army and I’m very excited to join the team! I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 5-6 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. I love the challenge that DFS brings and my main sports are basketball, football, and baseball. I play on both FanDuel and DraftKings so this article will be tailored towards those two sites. I am also working on a Tutorial Article of how to use the RS Who’s Hot and Clock Watch tools to your advantage.
This article will be expanding into some new territory here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, are a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on. So with that said, lets dig in!
Still unsure about DFS Army? Check out user goosebumps night with a little help from yours truly. He took home a GPP and a grand total of over $3,000! Join today!
Today is a big day to keep an eye out for late news as well. With all of the trades happening the past few days players will be ruled out late as teams decide whether or not they want to play them.
Last articles Traps:
Dorian Finney-Smith (32) He played 33 minutes, which I did not see coming with all of their new toys. Should take a few days for this rotation to settle but I still think THJ coming in hurts him the most.
Bogdan Bogdanovic (34.3) This one came about because the Kings shipped Iman Shumpert to Houston shortly before the game started, Justin Jackson also got traded mid-game as well. That opened up about 30-35 minutes for Bogdanovic and Bjelica which gave them the opportunity to play they would not have had otherwise.
Cheick Diallo (31.8) He is still performing way over his head given his minutes. Over the last 3 he’s averaging almost 0.5 FPPM more than his average, he will bomb at some point as that is not sustainable.
Nemanja Bjelica (24.2) Same as Bogdanovic, the Kings trading Shumpert opened up 30-35 minutes and Bjelica played more than he normally does.
Just Missed the Cut: Trevor Ariza (23.6), Rudy Gay (20.1), Warriors (everyone except KD and Thompson didn’t hit value).
Now, let’s dig in to today’s slate!
For advice on how to build your lineups with the Drop Score, PLEASE READ THIS ARTICLE!
Value Traps
Will Barton (DK $5,900 FD $5,200)
Barton’s role is getting smaller and smaller as this backcourt gets crowded. Even with Harris still out tonight, Murray is back which takes the ball out of Barton’s hands a good amount. With Murray, Morris, and Beasley and Torrey Craig all playing over 20 minutes a game it takes away from Barton. He is still starting but saw his minutes dip down to 19 last game. With Murray coming back it bumps Monte Morris down to the second unit, taking over the PG duties which Barton had when Morris was starting. At $5,900 on DK he is overpriced and I don’t see him hitting value unless he see’s 30+ minutes. I think 19 minutes was low last game but I see him in the 20-25 minute range moving forward. On FanDuel he is priced up too high to be a Drop Score candidate and given his playing time he doesn’t have the upside he normally does. He’s projected to give you 5.1x value on FD and 4.6x value on DK. Over his last 3 games he’s averaging around 4x value which won’t cut it for cash either. I really think Morris taking over as the second unit PG kills any value that Barton had. I’ll be avoiding him tonight.
Tyler Johnson (DK$4,300 FD$4,700)
Hear me out on this one, Johnson is cheap, and starting against the Warriors who are middle of the road at defending the PG position. However, Johnson is being thrust into a starting role with a completely new team, has not had the time to develop any kind of chemistry and in his first game with said new team is playing the best team in the NBA. This is setting up as a recipe for disaster, especially if Booker sits this game will probably be over by halftime and the Suns won’t want to risk the health of their new point guard. And even if Booker plays he will probably dominate the ball on offense. Johnson wasn’t exactly lighting it up before he got traded either:
This one will be a wait and see as we see what his role is in this offense moving forward. But with uncertainty about minutes and the matchup I’m staying away tonight.
Taj Gibson (DK $4,000 FD $4,100)
If you saw my notes in the coaches forums yesterday I pointed out Gibson there last night as well. If you did not see them here’s why. Saric is trending upward, and Gibson is trending downward. Saric seems to be finally adjusting the the TWolves offense and has really picked up his play of late. Saric is seeing more minutes off the bench, thus directly resulting in Gibson’s minutes dropping. Gibson is losing over 5 minutes of playing time over the last 3, and as expected his FPs are trending downward as well…he’s down almost 7FPPG. I’ve seen rumors as well that Saric will likely be sliding into the starting 5 soon as well. Gibson can be a Drop Score guy on FanDuel if you’re feeling risky but he really only excels when he gets the minutes, which as of right now are hovering around 20 or less. He’s averaging around 3.6x value over his last 3, and that simply isn’t going to cut it for us.
Just Missed the Cut: Allonzo Trier – Minutes are declining, the Knicks buying out WesMat helps as it should open up some minutes for him, but I still don’t think the minutes will be there as the rotation is still pretty crowded. DeAndre Ayton – similar reasons as Johnson, has a new PG at the helm whom he has no chemistry with and there is a huge blowout risk, I think he’s an OK play if Booker plays, but if Booker sits I’ll be avoiding the Suns tonight except maybe Jamal Crawford. Kenrich Williams – sadly with Anthony Davis returning along with Randle being back it looks like the #KennyHustle value train is over. Collin Sexton – he surprised me last game against Rozier, he’s set up perfectly for a let down game.
Who’s Trending
Eric Bledsoe (DK $6,700 FD $7,800)
Bledsoe is ON FIREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE:
He’s really stepped it up these last 3 games. He’s crushing value lately at 5.8x on FD and 6.6x on DK. He’s underpriced on DK at the moment which helps even more. Add in the fact that they are playing Dallas who is ranked 26th aDvP against Point Guards and I believe the hot streak will continue. Giannis (Who I love today) is also a GTD tonight, and if he sits you should just lock Bledsoe in. Middleton has already been ruled out tonight and Mirotic is also not likely to play today either.
Lauri Markkanen (DK $7,000 FD $8,100)
He’s underpriced on DK for sure, as he’s playing close to 40 minutes a game for the Bulls. Even with Porter looking like he’ll play, those close to the Bulls think that he’ll be limited in his first game out to adjust to his new team and both Portis and Parker are gone. Take a look at his numbers:
Keep an eye on LaVine’s status for tonight as well. Markkanen is a core play for me tonight and if LaVine sits Markkanen I’m locking him in everywhere. He’s averaging over 40FPs per game, and the Nets are ranked 29th aDvP against PF’s. He’s a phenomenal play tonight, especially on DK.
Dennis Smith Jr. (DK $5,800 FD $6,600)
The Fiz loves his new toy as he strutted him out there for 39 minutes last game. DSJ doesn’t have any competition at the PG spot right now with Mudiay and Ntilikina continuing to be out tonight. As we saw from Kadeem Allen chalk night he isn’t really a threat to DSJ either. His usage % is going to shoot up in the Knicks offense as it’s looking like the offense is going to flow through him going forward. He also gets Reggie Jackson defending him tonight, which is a boost as well. I’m pretty confident in DSJ tonight.
Dario Saric (DK $4,400 FD $3,700)
You saw this coming right? Taj is tanking which directly correlates to Saric rising. I like him more at his price point on FD and is a great Drop Score candidate tonight. He should see around 20-25 minutes tonight with the 2nd unit, which is more than enough time for him to pay off his price tag on FD with some decent upside. Take a look:
Isaiah Canaan (DK $3,000 FD $3,500)
Jeff Teague, Derrick Rose, and Jerryd Bayless are all GTD’s tonight. If all of them sit, Canaan is a free square as he is minimum priced on each site. Even if two of them sit he is still playable as a Drop Score candidate on FanDuel as he should still get some solid run. Keep an eye on the news for this one.
Other Guys I Like: Mason Plumlee – if Millsap sits again, just put him in, he’s been playing great when he starts. Dwyane Wade – Johnson is gone and that should give him 25-30 minutes, he’s trending up and has put up over 35 FPs his last two games. Dion Waiters– If he would start scoring it would be helpful, but with Johnson gone he should get some more run as well, he’s cheap everywhere. Malcolm Brogdon – Middleton is out for rest purposes tonight, if Giannis sits as well lock in both Bledsoe and Brogdon.
I’m hesitant to recommend anyone from Philly tonight, especially if Embiid plays. We’re gonna see how adding Harris into the rotation effects everyone’s usage.
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I will be in there for a bit, but I am not coaching today) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!
