Hello DFS Army members and happy February! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am one of the new content contributors here at DFS Army and I’m very excited to join the team! I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 5-6 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. I love the challenge that DFS brings and my main sports are basketball, football, and baseball. I play on both FanDuel and DraftKings so this article will be tailored towards those two sites. I am also working on a Tutorial Article of how to use the RS Who’s Hot and Clock Watch tools to your advantage.
This article will be expanding into some new territory here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, are a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on. So with that said, lets dig in!
Still unsure about DFS Army? Check out user goosebumps night with a little help from yours truly. He took home a GPP and a grand total of over $3,000! Join today!
Today I will also be adding another section at the end of Value Traps of a few guys that almost made the list but didn’t stand out as much. Let’s look back at the Traps from last article. I will use FanDuel scoring for these.
Tyreke Evans (25.2) I knew the Pacers were figuring stuff out but did not see that coming! I bet Magic is back on the phone with the Pels today about AD. Evans hit 5x value, so nothing crazy but he definitely overperformed and benefited from the blowout.
Allonzo Trier (7.6) He played only 15 minutes last night and didn’t do much. I expect him to continue trending downward with that now crowded Knicks rotation.
Danny Green (13.4) Another landmine that you hopefully avoided! He has the potential for 40FP games but last night was not one of them.
Justin Holiday (39.8) He must’ve finally heard I was talking s%$& and finally performed well. Even so he needed Gasol out of the picture which opened up a ton of usage. He mayyyyy have turned a corner last night, but we shall see.
Just Missed the Cut: Kyle Kuzma (12.2), Dion Waiters (13.7), Collin Sexton (40.3- He flipped the script and made Rozier look silly), Stanley Johnson (9.6….called it)
Now, let’s dig in to today’s slate!
For advice on how to build your lineups with the Drop Score, PLEASE READ THIS ARTICLE!
Value Traps
Dorian Finney-Smith (DK $3,900 FD $4,200)
DFS tops my list today as the Mavericks new acquisitions will see the court today. The inclusion of THJ and Courtney Lee into the rotation will likely impact Finney-Smith the most. Kleber seems to be solidified in the starting 5 as well as he has been solid. In the RS he’s currently projected to net you around 4.4x on FD and 4.7x value on DK. He’s currently projected to play around 27 minutes, but realistically I see him playing closer to 20 as Carlisle will want to see what his new acquisitions can do. Given his 0.69 FPPM average and a likely reduction in minutes, I see him netting less than 4x value today.
Bogdan Bogdanovic (DK $5,200 FD $5,400)
Bogdan is trending in the wrong direction in several categories, take a look below:
His production has taken such a hit that his salary dropped dramatically, $1,200 on FD to be exact. You can see that over his last 3 games, he’s averaging over 6 FPs less per game and his minutes are on the steady decline as well. Buddy Hield has been playing extremely well lately and Iman Shumpert is playing close to 30 minutes per game as well. His last game he played only 20 minutes and hasn’t seen 30 MPG in 4 of his last 5. Over his last 3 he’s netting you 3.6x value on FD and 3.8x value on DK and is projected to net 4.9x value on FD and 5.2x value on DK…it doesn’t add up. While I do like the pace-up spot against Houston it is concerning that his minutes are trending in the wrong direction.
Cheick Diallo (DK $3,700 FD $4,100)
A lot of people will be chasing Diallo again today after his performances from the last two games. He’s currently projected to hit 4.5x value on FD and 4.8x on DK. The issue here is that Julius Randle is looking like he is going to play tonight which will greatly effect Diallo. On the season he averages just under 1 FPPM and over his last 2 has averaged 1.44 FPPM which is a huge jump for a player of his caliber. Even if Randle doesn’t play tonight he will be capped at around 20 minutes and I don’t see him continuing to average almost a 0.5 FPPM more than his average.
Nemanja Bjelica (DK $4,200 FD $3,700)
The RS loves the Kings today, I believe it has to do with their matchup against the Rockets and their absurd pace. The problem with Bjelica is that he usually plays less than 20 minutes per game even though he starts. His minutes are actually all over the place, 21, 12, 20, 18, 32, 4, 14, 19 over his last 8. The last time the Kings played Houston he put up a whopping 3.2 FPs. He’s projected at around 18 minutes tonight and while he could pay off his salary on FD and could be Drop Score worthy, with the news of the Spurs sitting Aldridge and DDR there will be much better salary saving options on the slate than Bjelica.
Just Missed the Cut: Trevor Ariza (game should be a blowout and there are trade rumors surrounding him, so they will likely want to protect him if he does play), Rudy Gay (DDR and Aldridge are already sitting, if this one gets out of hand early the Spurs will likely rest Gay as well), Warriors (with Spurs resting Aldridge and DDR this one should be over quickly, I see most of the starts only playing 3 quarters).
Who’s Trending
Jakob Poeltl (DK $3,200 FD $3,500)
Like I mentioned earlier, Aldridge and DDR are resting tonight which should open up a ton of minutes for Spurs players. Even though this one will likely get ugly quickly you can never count out Pop and the Spurs. Poeltl should see a ton of minutes today and he will be one of the top Drop Score candidates on FanDuel at just $3,500. He needs only 15 FPs to net you 5x value and he averages just about 1 FPPM. If he gets 30 minutes that should net you a solid 10x value. The only thing keeping me from going all in on him tonight is that The Joker gets the Nets tonight and he is my favorite top dollar option tonight. Harden is too overpriced with CP3 back, Giannis and the Bucks will likely blowout the Wizards and we already covered the San Antonio/Golden State game.
Kemba Walker (DK $8,800 FD $9,300)
Cardiac Kemba is on fire right now! Just take a look:
He’s hit over 60 FPs in back to back games and gets a matchup with the Mavericks who are currently ranked 30 aDvP against PGs and he’s playing over 35 MPG. My only concern is that this is the second half of a B2B, however on their last B2B against an opponent that can’t defend PGs he played 36 minutes and put up a 60 burger. Him and The Joker are my favorite top dollar options tonight.
Josh Jackson (DK $5,500 FD $6,400)
Don’t look now but Josh Jackson is finally showing some consistency! He’s scored at least 25FPs in 6 out of his last 7 and has put up over 40FPs in 2 of those games. He’s playing well over 30 MPG lately and the Suns are beginning to at least turn of the corner of not getting blown out all the time. I believe that if they can hang with the Rockets they can hang with the Jazz. Can’t believe I’m saying this but I actually like Jackson for cash tonight. He’s trending up everywhere in the RS.
Patty Mills (DK $4,300 FD $4,200)
Mills is another Spurs value play tonight that I like. A lot of people will be flocking to Forbes but the blowout factor in this one is almost guaranteed unless the Warriors sit some of their starters as well. Mills’ minutes should be blowout proof in this one and he sees the greatest usage increase with both DDR and Aldridge off the floor. As Donuts alluded to in his article, with DDR, Aldridge, and White off the floor, Mills stands the most to benefit. With them out of the picture he sees a 23.8% usage rate and averages over 1 FPPM. In case of a blowout I still see him getting at least 25 minutes tonight, which should more than pay off his price tag.
Nikola Jokic (DK $10,600 FD $10,800)
If you’ve seen a common trend among my articles you had to see this one coming. Who are the Nuggets playing tonight? That’s right…the Nets. PLAY CENTERS AGAINST THE NETS! The Joker should feast in this one, and aside from Harden he has the highest ceiling on the night, except you get to pay $3,200 less on FD and $2,000 less on DK. I can actually see him outscoring Harden tonight.
Jordan McCrae (DK $3,400 FD $4,100)
Here’s a guy that you likely haven’t heard of and no one will be talking about tonight. You heard it here first!!! McCrae has seen a significant rise in playing time these last few games and I expect it to continue tonight. He’s a solid Drop Score Candidate on FanDuel if you want to be contrarian with all of the Spurs value. Just take a look at the model:
I wouldn’t expect him to put up close to 40FPs again in this one, as that was against the Hawks, but if he gets close to 20 minutes he can put up FPs in bunches. He is averaging 5.7x value over his last 3 and his minutes are trending in the right direction. He also stands to benefit if this game becomes a blowout as it will likely get him some additional minutes. Keep an eye on the Ariza trade news as well, if Ariza is held out of this one due to a trade that would benefit McCrae even more.
Other Guys I Like Tonight: Derrick Favors (PHX ranked 30th aDvP against PFs on the year, he should see a bit more run if the Suns keep this one close, which I think they will) Kenrich Williams (Only if Randle sits, if Randle plays #KennyHustle’s minutes will take a hit, if Randle sits, his minutes are secure and he’s still Trending way up in all the models), Jrue Holiday (CHI can’t defend either guard position, I like him more if Randle sits), Davis Bertans (another beneficiary of the Spurs resting their starters, should see close to 30 minutes tonight, blowout or not).
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I am coaching today as well) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!
