Hello DFS Army members and happy February! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am one of the new content contributors here at DFS Army and I’m very excited to join the team! I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 5-6 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. I love the challenge that DFS brings and my main sports are basketball, football, and baseball. I play on both FanDuel and DraftKings so this article will be tailored towards those two sites. I am also working on a Tutorial Article of how to use the RS Who’s Hot and Clock Watch tools to your advantage.
This article will be expanding into some new territory here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, are a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on. So with that said, lets dig in!
Still unsure about DFS Army? Check out user goosebumps night with a little help from yours truly. He took home a GPP and a grand total of over $3,000! Join today!
Today I will also be adding another section at the end of Value Traps of a few guys that almost made the list but didn’t stand out as much. Let’s look back at the Traps from last article. I will use FanDuel scoring for these.
Justin Holiday – (21.3) He had the perfect storm to finally break through, Conley was out, and he got back up to 35 minutes as they were short bodies. Still underperformed and he scored the majority of those 21.3 in the first quarter as he started out hot and then disappeared.
Kyle Korver – (24.7) Lesson learned, just play SG’s against the Hawks. Still nothing ground breaking as it likely would have been your drop score or close to being your drop score.
Kevin Huerter (26.9) If Bazemore was still out this likely would’ve been one of his 35+ FP games. He still performed adequately, but his ceiling is capped by Bazemore being back.
Also had Mario Hezonja on my list of Traps, but nixed him last minute because the matchup was good and the minutes should’ve been there, but the Fiz struck again as Hezonja put up just 14.6 FPs.
Now, let’s dig in to today’s slate!
For advice on how to build your lineups with the Drop Score, PLEASE READ THIS ARTICLE!
Value Traps
Tyreke Evans (DK $4,200 FD $4,900)
Just take a look at the data:
I know he sat out 3 games but still…woof. The Pacers seem to be figuring out life without Oladipo, but Evans just doesn’t look right and doesn’t seem to be part of the solution. In his last 2 games since returning he’s also back to coming off of the bench and has only played 16 and 18 minutes putting up less than 15 FPs in each game. The RS is projecting him at giving you over 5x value tonight. Given his recent production and role, I really don’t see that happening.
Allonzo Trier (DK $4,700 FD $4,000)
Trier seems to be the guy that will be losing the most after this trade, as his playing time took a significant hit with DSJ , WesMat, and Jordan joining the rotation. He saw only 15 minutes last game out against the Grizzlies and I expect his minutes to continue to trend in a negative direction as this rotation is now pretty crowded. The Knicks now have DSJ, WesMat, Dotson, Trier, Hezonja, and Kadeem Allen still saw minutes as well. Add in the Fiz’s comments that he wants to get the new acquisition’s playing time to “teach” the young guys and its just a situation to stay away from. I’m avoiding Trier especially on DK as his price is still inflated. I have a better Drop Score guy for you that I will touch on later.
Danny Green (DK $4,100 FD $4,300)
Green seems to be suffering from an illness right now that is clearly affecting him. It was bad enough that he even went to the locker room in the first half of the Milwaukee game and was limited to 20 minutes against the Clippers two days ago. He’s trending way down in the Who’s Hot model and is only a possible GPP Drop Score candidate at best on FD today as he has one the ability to pop off random 40FP games that can help you take down GPPs. Until we get word that he is back at full strength and completely over whatever he has I will be staying away.
Justin Holiday (DK $4,700 FD $4,500)
No need to beat a dead horse here. He’s getting all the minutes he can handle, and he’s still not producing at a great rate. He had a decent game against the Knicks last time out, but they are a mess having lost 13 straight. Add in the fact that Garrett Temple is a GTD tonight, if he plays he should take away some minutes from Holiday which hurts him even more.
Just Missed the Cut: Kyle Kuzma (with LBJ back his FP’s and usage have gone way down), Dion Waiters (Dependent on scoring for his FP’s, averaging 4.25 actual PPG over last 4), Collin Sexton (Avg 0.72 FPPM, minutes slowly declining, Rozier will make him look foolish tonight). Update: Stanley Johnson (perfect set up for a letdown game as he will only see around 20 minutes off the bench and I highly doubt he explodes for another 40FPs.)
Who’s Trending
Jordan Clarkson (DK $5,200 FD $5,400)
Clarkson is trending upwards in our Who’s Hot Model, see below:
Kyrie is out again tonight, which actually should help Clarkson as it will likely result in Marcus Smart (Boston’s best defender) playing more with the 1s and will likely play a few less minutes with the 2nd team than he normally does. Clarkson’s minutes should also be blowout proof as he already comes off the bench and if the Cavs are going to be keeping this somewhat close they’re going to need Clarkson to score a lot of points tonight. Either way his minutes are hovering around 30 per game and he should still see around that number whether this one gets ugly or not. Clarkson is starting to get some consistency going as well as he is netting you 5.9x value on FD and 6.6x value on DK over his last 3 games.
Jaylen Brown (DK $4,900 FD $5,100)
Brown, along with Rozier, is one of the biggest beneficiaries with Kyrie being out again tonight. When Kyrie is out he sees close to 30 minutes off the bench as opposed to his normal 20ish. Add in the blowout factor here and he could see some additional minutes as well. I believe he will easily hit that 5x value today, and has the upside of about 40 FPs which can really pay big dividends for you in GPPs at his price point.
David Nwaba (DK $3,600 FD $3,600)
With Osman being injured it is yet to see who will start in his place as the dude was on fire before going down. My guess is that it will be Nwaba as he joined the starting 5 on Saturday when the 3rd quarter kicked off. If we get word that he is starting today he is a fantastic drop score candidate on FD for both cash and GPPs because if he duds it doesn’t really matter. I would bump him down a bit if he doesn’t start, but either way I am predicting he sees at least 20 minutes in this game, which should be enough time for him to pay off that $3,600 price tag with some decent upside.
Daniel Theis (DK $3,500 FD $3,700)
It will likely be Theis and Nwaba for me today on FD as my Drop Score candidates. Theis is in a great position today as he will see additional minutes with Aaron Baynes being out until the All-Star break AND Marcus Morris has been ruled out in this one, so he could even find his way into the starting lineup. If he does, just lock him in for cash, as he averages 1.04 FPPM and should see at least 20 minutes in this one with the possibility that he sees close to 30. He should see solid minutes today whether this game gets ugly or not, although I could see this being closer than people think.
Terry Rozier (DK $6,700 FD $7,000)
If you haven’t been listening to me on this one, then start, when Kyrie is out, lock Rozier into your cash game lineups. I know he is priced up a bit on both sites but there is a reason. We’ve seen that when he gets minutes, he produces. Cleveland is also dead last at guarding PG’s this year as Collin Sexton is basically a swinging screen door on the defensive end. Marcus Morris being ruled out helps him as well as he will likely pick up additional usage. Rozier should have a floor of about 30FPs in this one, and if the Cavs can keep it decently close he has 50FP upside. His numbers have me seeing green as well, even with Kyrie playing the previous 2 games.
Kelly Olynyk (DK $3,900 FD $4,500)
I like him more on DK for the price point, but Olynk has been crushing value lately. His price on FD has jumped up $1,000 which kind of sucks, but I still think he easily hits value in this one. Just take a look at his numbers, over his last 3 he’s been AVERAGING 7.4x value on DK and 6x value on FD. Take a look below:
He’s also averaging over 14 FP’s more per game over his last 3 than his average and seeing over 12 more minutes per game. He’s another great Drop Score candidate as he just meets that cutoff of $4,500 that Loos talks about in his article. He’s been a big beneficiary of Derrick Jones Jr. going down, and he should continue to see close to 30 minutes off the bench again tonight.
A few others I like tonight: Al Horford (for obvious reasons), Rajon Rondo (if LBJ plays he is cash game safe as LeBron helps him elevate his game), Myles Turner (IND seems to be figuring it out, he’s trending up. Update: He is now a GTD, if he sits, I loveeeee Sabonis), Cory Joseph (same reasons as Turner, plus he is playing over 30 MPG), Mike Muscala (if he starts again). Update: Also like Malik Monk tonight, especially on DK, he is trending up as well.
FINAL UPDATE: RABB BUMPS NWABA AS MY OTHER FAVORITE DROP SCORE CANDIDATE TONIGHT WITH GASOL OUT. ALSO BUMP MIKE CONLEY INTO GUYS I LIKE TONIGHT.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I am coaching today as well) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!
