Hello DFS Army members and happy February! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am one of the new content contributors here at DFS Army and I’m very excited to join the team! I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 5-6 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. I love the challenge that DFS brings and my main sports are basketball, football, and baseball. I play on both FanDuel and Draftkings so this article will be tailored towards those two sites.
This article will be expanding into some new territory here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, are a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on. So with that said, lets dig in!
Still unsure about DFS Army? Check out user goosebumps night with a little help from yours truly. He took home a GPP and a grand total of over $3,000! Join today!
Quick look at last article’s Value Traps from 1/30. (Will use FD scoring):
Traps
Trey Burke – (29.7) Nothing earth shattering here, on the slate a ton of value opened up (Rozier) and Burke’s performance likely didn’t make you any money.
Edmond Sumner – (22) Looked a bit more aggressive on offense than I thought he would, Pacers still got blown out and likely will continue to get blown out by any decent team moving forward.
Justin Holiday – (7.2) Yuck, I told you he would be awful, and he was. His minutes took a hit as well.
If you checked the Coaches Notes yesterday you would see I dropped in that the traps yesterday were:
Evan Fournier (17.2) Just as predicted, his minutes and performance continue to trend downward with T. Ross playing out of his mind. Ross went bonkers which kept him on the bench as well.
Wilson Chandler (15.9) Right on the money again, Sixers surprisingly beat the Warriors, but I think if Klay plays its a completely different game. Still, Chandler showed barely any signs of life with Simmons, Butler, and Embiid all on the floor.
If you haven’t already, also take a look at Loosmeister’s strategy article on lineup construction on FanDuel. It is extremely applicable to your strategy with this article as well.
With that said, let’s dig into today!
Value Traps
Justin Holiday (DK $4,800 FD $4,100)
Holiday is popping out in the Research Station once again today as a great value. Once again, I’m here to warn you that the value just isn’t there! Take a look at his Who’s Hot and Clock Watch data:
He’s still trending up in Clock Watch because his minutes drastically increased once he got into the Grizzlies rotation. However, like I said last article, Kyle Anderson is back and would eat into his minutes, which is exactly what happened. You’ll see that he went from 35+ minutes to 23 last game. Bruno Caboclo is also eating into his minutes as well. I expect him to be in the 25-30 range going forward. At just under 5k on FanDuel he’d need to get you around 25 FPs to hit that 5x value you are looking for. You can also see his value over the last three clocked in at 3.3x and 3.5x, not what we are looking for. Also, I pointed out last article that his FPPM has dropped to about 0.59, which even if he gets those 30 minutes will only net you about 17.7 FPs. He’s not going to get you that 5.7x value on FanDuel or the 6x value projected on DK. I’m staying far away and you should too.
Kyle Korver (DK $3,700 FD $3,500)
This is another one that stood out to me in the Research Station that doesn’t fit. Korver is projected to get 26 minutes tonight, which if you look at his recent game logs, he’s play 20 or less in 3 out of his last 4 games. While this is a juicy pace-up matchup with Atlanta, I don’t see the Jazz blowing them out and giving Korver more playing time. If we take a look at his Who’s Hot and Clock Watch data we see a lot of red.
Red=Bad. He is feasible on FD with the Drop Score, but with the Knicks trading away their whole team yesterday there will be plenty of Drop Score candidates there to choose from that will be better than Ashton Kutcher’s look-a-like. I’m avoiding him completely on DK. He doesn’t have the ceiling you are looking for in GPPs.
Kevin Huerter (DK $4,400 FD $4,700)
Bazemore returning essentially kills Huerter as a value play for the foreseeable future, which is sad to see because with him out he was playing upwards of 35+ minutes per game and gave us a few 40+ FP explosions. Taurean Prince is also stealing minutes from him since returning as well. He’s trending downward in our model, and even if Bazemore sticks at his 20 minute restriction again today it really downgrades Huerter. With Baze back his minutes dipped down to 24 and I see that trend continuing. Given his skill set 20-25 minutes a game just isn’t enough for him to do enough damage to reach that 5x number we are looking for, let alone smash it.
For situations to monitor tonight, check out CeeGee’s 1st Look article here!
Looking for even more content? Look no further than AFriedman’s Dirty Dozen!
The next section of my article looks at who is trending in the right direction, and who is hot, using some of the tools from the Research Station to help us get an early jump on guys that are heating up before everyone else catches on.
Who’s Trending
Kyrie Irving (DK $9,600 FD $10,500)
Kyrie, at the Garden, along with trade rumors and the media all over his interest in joining the Knicks if he decides to become a free agent? Sign me up! The Celtics fan in me wants him to stay, but frankly I’m not sure if they will even offer him a max contract. Kyrie will want to put on a show and ball out in this one. The only thing holding me back from going all in on him tonight is the blowout being a strong possibility, so definitely keep that in the back of your mind. Before he sat out the last two games with a hip injury take a look at his numbers:
Can you say En Fuego? My hope in this one is that the Knicks can at least keep it somewhat close, if they can manage that then I see Kyrie going for 50+ FPs easy in this one. Keep an eye on Horford as well, there is talk of resting him, if he does end up resting that opens up even more usage for Kyrie.
Bruno Caboclo (DK $3,400 FD $3,900)
Cabocolo is my favorite SF Drop Score Candidate on FanDuel tonight for several reasons. First, if you read Loos’ article (Which I highly recommend you do) you know that you should have at least 2 guys in your lineups under $4,500 competing for that drop score that have great upside. Caboclo fits that description perfectly tonight. Over his last 3 he has played, 28, 23, and 31 minutes. With Justin Holiday continually playing like poo I can see him getting close to another 30 minutes again tonight. He’s on the up and up as well:
His playing time is up over 4 minutes per game since being added and have provided almost 6x value over his last 3 games. I expect him to continue eating into Holiday’s minutes and I like him to pick up a few extra minutes tonight if Conley decides to take the night off as well.
Jerami Grant (DK $5,800 FD $6,000)
His price point is starting to creep up but he’s still in that range where he can give us great value. He’s also tearing up the model right now and has really taken a huge leap forward this year:
As you can see he’s playing huge minutes right now and I expect that to continue tonight and moving forward. Over his last 3 he’s providing a great 5.6x value on FanDuel and 5.4x value on DraftKings. He should be a really solid cash game plug and play tonight, especially with everyone flocking to roster Knicks tonight (Do so at your own peril, don’t get #fizzedon). But we’re gonna be smart tonight though and not play Knicks in cash games. There’s only one Knick I will be playing tonight and that’s strictly on FanDuel as a drop score candidate. Bump Grant up even more if Adams is ruled out again.
Kadeem Allen (DK $3,300 FD $3,500)
Just like #KennyHustle the other night, Allen is another perfect drop score candidate for your lineups tonight. None of the Knicks new players will be playing tonight which leaves them with 9 healthy bodies. Allen has played well in limited minutes and should see 30+ tonight. The key word there being SHOULD. Given the unpredictability of the Knicks rotation that isn’t a lock. Just always be aware that when you are dealing with Knicks and Fizdale you are playing with fire. I like him more on FD because of the drop score, but he is also a great play on DK in GPPs as well.
Shelvin Mack (DK $3,500 FD $3,500)
This one really hinges on the health of Michael Conley. He has some knee soreness tonight and I could see him taking the night off to get some rest and stay healthy. Conley has been playing huge minutes lately and has really been producing for this Grizzlies squad. If we get word before lock that he is out Mack essentially becomes a free square on FD as a phenomenal drop score candidate and I would like him more than Allen because he will garner less ownership. Keep an eye out for that news, I will update this pick later depending on how things shake out.
Update: With the Grizzlies news, Shelvin Mack becomes a great pivot from Allen. Keep an eye on JJR, if he is out JaMychal Green becomes another free square. Also LOVE Gobert vs. the Hawks bigs tonight, should be a block party.
As always keep an eye out for updates on this article as we get more news closer to lock. My updates will be in bold.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!
