Hi there! I’m Aaron/AFriedman15 (@AFriedman15DFS) and this is Friedman’s Dirty Dozen, where I will include 12ish of my favorite plays, using information from the DFS Army NBA Research Station (RS), NBA WOWY, and other sources. Some days, when there is a smaller slate, there will be fewer picks. I will generally list them in order of personal preference. My research is focused around DK and the DK Research station, so keep that in mind. Players may be viable to varying degrees at the other sites as well. I will generally try to write Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays, and Weekends, but I may have some spare time on other days as well. On the days I write, you can generally find me in #cash-keg-nfl-cfb-nba
James Harden (cash only): With Chris Paul resting on tonight’s back-to-back in Salt Lake City, Harden emerges as a excellent cash play. To me, he is cash only having never broken 60 DKFP in 18 career games in SLC. As I have mentioned in recent columns, we will likely to see Harden appear on the top ten price drops list for the next several appearances on the slate. I think you have to balance out Harden’s performance in Utah with how good he has been without Paul. Which may be right around 5x. Excellent cash play tonight, but I probably want some more balance in GPPs.
What To Expect Today — CeeGee’s 1st Look!
Jimmy Butler: Speaking of excellent matchups,…According to our SIM model, Butler has a 66% chance of 6x-ing, which we love to see. Add the fact that JJ Redick and Wilson Chandler are out for the 76ers, Butler is a core play for me.
Nikola Vucevic: Of all the studs on the slate — and yes, the first-time all-star absolutely falls into this category, Vuc gets arguably the best matchup, going up against the Brooklyn Nets who are 29th in aDvP against the Center position. I’m not in love with the $9,800 price tag, but here is a top 5 projected scorer, top 2 in DKFP vs. opp, and top 3 in And1 rating. Vuc checks a lot of boxes for me on tonight’s slate.
Devin Booker: With DeAndre Ayton back in play tonight, I actually like Devin Booker more. With Ayton back and excluding Bender, Melton, and T.J. Warren, Booker is averaging 1.27 DKFPPM (up from 1.23) and he draws an elite matchup against Atlanta, who is fresh off a difficult matchup in Utah. Booker is one of the most price-up guys on the slate, but this is a pace up spot for the Suns, who have not played in three days
Bobby Portis: Bobby Portis is my favorite mid-range play of the slate at $5,700. While it may seem like a lot to pay, I love this spot for Portis with Jabari Parker and Wendell Carter Jr. out for tonight’s game. Literally, the only available Bulls up front appear to be Robin Lopez, Lauri Markkanen, and Portis. Portis should crush his price tag and see over 30 minutes of play.
For those who don’t know, golf season has begun, and our DFS Army staff is top notch. Shoutout to maxi1_000_000 for this excellent win!
Malik Beasley: Without Gary Harris and Jamal Murray tonight, Malik Beasley is a premier value play and I have no problem just locking him in at just $4,400. While Beasley, and the rest of the Denver Nuggets are not rated high in the RS, he is still in a great spot. This is a great example to show that the RS is just a tool, when of many that should be utilized as you do your research.
Landry Shamet: The rookie Shamet is my favorite value play of the slate at just $3,300. He will draw the start in place of JJ Reddick tonight and should have no trouble paying off that price tag. Other than Malik Beasley, Shamet and TJ McConnell rate as my top two value plays of the day on DraftKings.
TJ McConnell: $200 more than Shamet, sits TJ McConnell who should be the second-team point guard tonight for the 76ers. McConnell rates as one of the RS’ top candidates to 6x, and every time I roster him, he seems to come through.
Before lock, check out our “Coaching Notes“
Monte Morris: My favorite value play on Yahoo at just $13, he is a mid-range play on DraftKings at $5,500.
D’Angelo Russell: Opposite the Orlando Magic tonight, D’Angelo Russell is having the finest season of his young career and was just named an NBA All-Star for the first time, replacing Victor Oladipo. Russell isn’t popping of the RS, but he has played really well against the Magic, ranking right behind Vucevic in our DKFP vs. opposition metric.
Kenrich Williams and Darius Miller: Williams and Miller are in play again tonight with Julius Randle and E’twaun Moore out for today. According to Coach CeeGee, Miller has been averaging just over 30 fantasy points per game over his last 4 games while playing just about 35 minutes per game. The Spurs are allowing 60.8 fantasy points per game to SF which is the 2nd most on this slate only behind the Suns (67.4).
Andre Iguodala (if Klay Thompson out): At $3,800, “Iggy” is another viable value play assuming Klay Thompson is out for tonight’s game. According to the research station, Iggy has the highest probability to 6x his salary.
Those are your Dirty Dozen! Some are going to be commonplace, and some won’t. These are players my research led me to and some will contain risk. Your research may indicate you agree or disagree, and that’s ok….we discuss these things in our coaching channels nightly. Good luck tonight! Check the coaches picks for even more confidence in your plays. And always consult all of the unlocked tools (including the Research Station) before lock! And, if you are catching me on a #FreebieFriday, you are going to want to unlock those coaching channels by admitting……
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