Hi there! I’m Aaron/AFriedman15 (@AFriedman15DFS) and this is Friedman’s Dirty Dozen, where I will include 12ish of my favorite plays, using information from the DFS Army NBA Research Station (RS), NBA WOWY, and other sources. Some days, when there is a smaller slate, there will be fewer picks. I will generally list them in order of personal preference. My research is focused around DK and the DK Research station, so keep that in mind. Players may be viable to varying degrees at the other sites as well. I will generally try to write Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays, and Weekends, but I may have some spare time on other days as well. On the days I write, you can generally find me in #cash-keg-nfl-cfb-nba
Nikola Jokic (if Jamal Murray out)–Mostly moved on to Giannis as my top guy: As long as Jamal Murray is out for tonight, Jokic essentially has a 50 point floor and a 70 point ceiling. Simply put, Jokic has been on a tear and his price should have increased. However, this morning, Jamal Murray was upgraded to questionable. Jokic and Giannis are my top two spend up options and I might advise putting Jokic/Gianis in your UTIL spot for single-entry/handbuilding situations so you can make an easy switch if you feel compelled to.
What To Expect Today — CeeGee’s 1st Look!
Bradley Beal: I wavered a little on whether to put Giannis or Beal here, but I’d argue that the two have similar upside yet Beal is nearly $2,000 cheaper and you can . I’d probably start with Giannis in cash, but Beal is a core play for me on the slate. Of all of the studs on the slate, Beal has arguably the best matchup here as Atlanta leads the league in opposing real and fantasy points allowed to shooting guards.
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Man, I love Giannis here too. Many of the coaches have mentioned the centers against Brooklyn narrative as the nuts matchup and Giannis basically has triple the rebounds of Brook Lopez, who the Bucks use to space the floor. While the aDvP for Giannis, doesn’t look great, I would argue that it is a misnomer due to the fact that Lopez is not a traditional center. Giannis torched the Nets for 72 DKFP on December 29th and has gone for 70+ in two of the last 4 matchups.
Brook Lopez: Conversely, the aDvP is a little skewed here for BroLo, but I absolutely love him in my cash lineups. It’s a little bit of an odd spot, but I still like him here. It should be also noted that this is a revenge game for Lopez, who returns to his first franchise, where he spent 10 years with the Nets. In three games since leaving the Nets, BroLo has gone for 58, 28.8, and 34 DKFP. Lopez is probably a DK only play for me. I wish he has cheaper than $20 on Yahoo.
For those who don’t know, golf season has begun, and our DFS Army staff is top notch. Shoutout to maxi1_000_000 for this excellent win!
DeMar DeRozan: DDR is arguably one of the biggest benefactors on the slate, as the Spurs head to Sacramento in a pace up spot (+5.2). The Spurs are implied for 114 points tonight and DeMar averages 1.21 DKFPPM when he is on the court and Derrick White is off. 1.21 DKFPPM over 36 minutes would equate to 43.56. The RS is in alignment at 43.7 projected DKFP. With one of the best matchups on the board, DeMar is a core play and I look for him to in close to a 50 burger tonight.
Kenrich Williams: Frank Jackson is in play here too, but with 30 + minutes over his last three games, I would rather go Kenrich Williams if picking between the two players. Williams is arguably the best value on the slate, with not a ton of value options to fall in love with. Kenrich leads the RS’ Who’s hot and bump in minutes report.
John Collins: Plus plus matchup for Collins, who draws the third-worst teams in defensive rebound percentage. One thing I love about Collins is that he can stretch the floor and has elevated his three-point game a lot in his second season, essentially 4x-ing his three point makes and attempts this season and shooting the three-ball at a 37% clip.
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Kevin Huerter (GPP only): As mentioned with Collins, Washington struggles to defend the three and I like this as an upside game for Huerter.
Tomas Satoransky (cash only): Sato duded last week vs. Cleveland in a sick matchup when he was $6,000. Today we get an even better matchup (vs. Trae Young), at a cheaper price ($5,600). I love the Wizards tonight and you can even go Ariza as well, if you are looking for a forward in the same price range.
Darren Collison (cash only): As I have mentioned in the past, Collison is never a sexy play to roster, but Collison and the Pacers get the 2nd highest pace up spot and the Pelicans allow the third most assists to point guards. If you are just trying cross the cash line, I love him here.
Myles Turner (GPP only): Turner is an intriguing GPP play at just $6,300 tonight. In six career games vs. the Pelicans, the Pacers center is averaging 37.13 DKFPPG. He feels too cheap tonight with no Anthony Davis tonight to get him in foul trouble. I almost never play Turner in cash, and I doubt I will start here, but I like him a lot for GPPs. Okafor is nothing special defensively and Turner has a top ten matchup according the And1 rating system.
DeAndre Ayton (GPP only): I like Turner better than Ayton, but I am very intrigued by Ayton who came back from injury a couple days ago with no minutes restriction, playing 33 minutes. Today, the DS projects him for another 30 minutes, and I am interested in chasing his upside in GPPs. The Phoenix- Houston matchup will have two of the top three teams in the Opposing Points in the Paint statistic, so Faried is in play for me too.
Marvin Bagley (bonus cash play):
Those are your Dirty Dozen! Some are going to be commonplace, and some won’t. These are players my research led me to and some will contain risk. Your research may indicate you agree or disagree, and that’s ok….we discuss these things in our coaching channels nightly. Good luck tonight! Check the coaches picks for even more confidence in your plays. And always consult all of the unlocked tools (including the Research Station) before lock! And, if you are catching me on a #FreebieFriday, you are going to want to unlock those coaching channels by admitting……
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