Hi there! I’m Aaron/AFriedman15 (@AFriedman15DFS) and this is Friedman’s Dirty Dozen, where I will include 12ish of my favorite plays, using information from the DFS Army NBA Research Station (RS), NBA WOWY, and other sources. Some days, when there is a smaller slate, there will be fewer picks. I will generally list them in order of personal preference. My research is focused around DK and the DK Research station, so keep that in mind. Players may be viable to varying degrees at the other sites as well. I will generally try to write Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays, and Weekends, but I may have some spare time on other days as well. On the days I write, you can generally find me in #cash-keg-nfl-cfb-nba
Paul George: Having the season of his life, Paul George checks in as my top overall play of the day, even as his price hits $10,000–as it has a few times his season. While Russell Westbrook is our top projected scorer, there are a few point guards that will appear in this column, while Small Forward has relatively scarce options on this three game slate. As I have mentioned in the past, every statistic and metric should be viewed as a tool, and an aide to helping our research process, but certainly not the gospel. With that said, I found this SIM model 6x projection alarming. While PG13 has a 30% chance of 6x-ing according to our SIM model, Westbrook only has a 1% option.
What To Expect Today — CeeGee’s 1st Look!
Kyrie Irving: Irving is on a tear of late, and he gets a pace up spot here against the Thunder. Kyrie is my 2nd favorite spend up on the slate.
Dennis Smith Jr.: DSJ simply put, is the only trustworthy option on the Knicks, which is somewhat alarming to say, given that today is is first game (and start) in the Big Apple. However, with his father traveling to the game and his position as the top value on on RS, DSJ will be the first point guard I look at to roster on today’s slate.
Serge Ibaka: Serge checks intoday today’s game which one of the better matchups on the slate. Ibaka rates third in both our value sheet and the And1 ratings, and he has been on a heater with five straight double-doubles. I love him on DK and Yahoo ($22), as the Clippers have allowed the most Yahoo points per game (51.8) to opposing centers.
Pascal Siakam: I don’t even mind playing both Ibaka and Pascal Siakam in the same lineup as Siakam too benefits with one of the top matchups on the board and he is right behind Ibaka in our value rankings. The Sim Model gives Siakam a 52% chance of 6x-ing, which I will gladly take on this short slate.
For those who don’t know, golf season has begun, and our DFS Army staff is top notch. Shoutout to maxi1_000_000 for this excellent win!
Al Horford: Horford benefits from a small price drop ($300), yet gets a pace-up matchup today vs. Oklahoma City. Horford has been on a heater of late with no fewer than 32.8 DKFP in his last five games.
Lou Williams: Sweet Lou has been a major benefactor to Danilo Gallinari being sidelined over the past several games. Williams has one of the highest ceilings (below) on the slate and Lou is typically an excellent GPP-option (and it is advisable to only play GPPs on such small slates).
Justin Holiday: Perfect time to take a shot on Holiday, who is one of our top values and top options to 5x on this slate. I don’t roster him a ton, but he has seen 35+ minutes two of the last four games.
Before lock, check out our “Coaching Notes“
Bruno Cabolco: At $3,600, I am willing to go back to Bruno, who just signed a second ten-day contract with the Grizzlies. He is in play independent of the Conley news.
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Love his price at $5,200. He was out Friday, but is back probable for this afternoon.
Mike Conley/ Kyle Lowry: Conley is in for today, killing off Mack and Carter for me. Conley and Kyle Lowry are interesting plays now.
Those are your Dirty Dozen! Some are going to be commonplace, and some won’t. These are players my research led me to and some will contain risk. Your research may indicate you agree or disagree, and that’s ok….we discuss these things in our coaching channels nightly. Good luck tonight! Check the coaches picks for even more confidence in your plays. And always consult all of the unlocked tools (including the Research Station) before lock! And, if you are catching me on a #FreebieFriday, you are going to want to unlock those coaching channels by admitting……
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