Hello DFS Army! My name is Michael, otherwise known as DFS Madness on Twitter (@MadnessDFS), I am one of the new writers/contributors that the Army has brought on to join the team! I’ll be writing a Core 4 article a few times per week and then full slate breakdowns on the weekends. A quick little background about me, I am an Economics student at the University of Wisconsin – La Crosse (yeah it’s cold here) with graduation coming this May. I’ve been playing DFS for about 4-5 years now and providing content for about 2-3 of those years.
Those of you who used my Core4 yesterday, as part of our #FreebieFriday, were probably pretty happy! Here are the results:
Nikola Jokic – 63.75 DKP; 5.9x
Kadeem Allen – 21 DKP; 6.4x
Monte Morris – 42.5 DKP; 8.3x
Ricky Rubio – 44.5 DKP; 7.3x
Tonight I’ll have a full slate breakdown and it’s not a short slate, so let’s jump right in!
NBA DFS Game Break:
Chicago Bulls @ Charlotte Hornets:
Vegas Total: 217.5
Vegas Spread: CHA -6.5
I’ll start with the Chicago Bulls as they go on the road to Charlotte here. Targeting the Bulls is always scary, as is targeting most bad NBA teams as they tend to be sporadic with their minutes. My favorite play from the Bulls is probably Bobby Portis, the key with him is minutes he’s a 1.06 fantasy point per minute player, so when he’s able to get some run he’s a very good play. At only $5,700 he’s certainly in play here. There’s not a lot else I love from the Bulls side, Dunn is a fine play as Charlotte ranks 22nd in team defense against opposing point guards. Shaq Harrison is also a fine punt if you need one, but we can move onto the Hornets here. I normally don’t target the Hornets too often, but a case can be made for Kemba tonight, the Bulls rank 28th in defense against opposing point guards but he’s more of a GPP play for me.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Washington Wizards:
Vegas Total: 229.5
Vegas Spread: MIL -6.0
The key with the Bucks is normally to look at the spread, they blow a ton of teams out which normally limits the starters minutes and upside. If you think the Wizards can keep this game close then the Bucks make for great plays and great fades if you think the Bucks run away with this thing. Starting with the Bucks, they’re all priced pretty appropriately but my favorite play is probably Malcolm Brogdon. The Wizards rank 27th in DvsA and Brogdon is normally a pretty safe play with a decent amount of upside, at $5,400 he makes for a solid play. Giannis is never a bad play, but it sounds like Chris Paul will sit on the second half of a back to back, so paying up for Harden may be the smarter choice. From the Wizards side, if this game is going to stay close it will be because of Bradley Beal. He scored 57.3 draftkings points in the first matchup on the season, so I do like him at $8,500. A case can also be made for Otto Porter and Tomas Satoransky if you want to go there.
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Brooklyn Nets @ Orlando Magic:
Vegas Total: 218.0
Vegas Spread: ORL -2.0
It feels like these two teams have played like five times in the past week, but nonetheless I’ll start with the Nets here. Hollis-Jefferson is someone I like if we know he’s going to get the minutes, if we get word that he’s starting then he becomes a phenomenal play, but a GPP play otherwise as he is priced nicely. Joe Harris is a fine guy as a last guy into your lineup, but he’s never someone I prioritize. Lastly, Jarrett Allen is a fine play here as well but again not someone I’m prioritizing. On the Magic side, Evan Fournier feels too cheap here at just $5,100. He’s playing all the minutes he can handle and averages 25.5 draftkings points against the Nets on the year, which is 5x. He has a nice floor in this spot with a 40+ point ceiling. Nikola Vucevic is certainly priced at a premium, but he’s smashed this spot twice recently with games of 50.25 and 58 draftkings points. It’s tough to pay $9,800 but it is a good spot as the Nets rank 20th in defensive efficiency against opposing centers.
Dallas Mavericks @ Cleveland Cavaliers:
Vegas Total: 210
Vegas Spread: DAL -7.0
The Mavericks will be shorthanded yet again in this game tonight and draw a fantastic matchup, so this game will be a great game to target for value. It sounds like they can at least expect to get Luka Doncic back, but on this slate I don’t think you need him, I’d prefer the cheaper guys. Dwight Powell and Maxi Kleber feel like the best plays here, if we go to the Domination Station we can see that Dwight Powell is currently projected to 6.1x his price tag, while Kleber is projected to 5.9x his price tag. I think we can jump off the Harrison Barnes bandwagon though, his price went up $800 and Doncic should soak up some up his usage. From the Cavs, Alec Burks is my favorite play, as he is getting a steady dose of minutes and the Mavs rank 24th in defensive efficiency against opposing shooting guards. Cedi Osman is playing all the minutes he can handle right now and has been producing lately, he’s also a solid play.
Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat:
Vegas Total: 204.5
Vegas Spread: MIA -3.0
The Pacers are not a team I want to target right now, with Oladipo off the court they are a complete mess. Until they figure out their rotations I’ll be fading them entirely. We can move right on to the Heat here which admittedly isn’t much sexier. However, Tyler Johnson is worth a look at $4,300 he’s rejoined the starting lineup and could see 25+ minutes, he’s not my favorite play but you could do worse. The rest of the Heat are GPP flyers at best, they have a really deep bench and they’re not afraid to use it so it can be hard to predict where the contribution will be coming from on a nightly basis.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Golden State Warriors:
Vegas Total: 236.0
Vegas Spread: GS -10.0
This game features a massive total, but the Lakers will have trouble keeping this one close. We finally have LeBron James back in our lives, but he’s priced up enough to where we don’t need to go there until he shows more of a ceiling. The rest of the Lakers are fades for me until their prices are adjusted to James back in the lineup. From the Warriors, I love targeting Draymond and Klay as they are cheap ways to get exposure to this elite offense and that doesn’t change tonight. I like them both. DeMarcus Cousins ended up closing in their last game against the 76ers, but I assume that was because they were trailing in that game and they likely won’t be tonight. Cousins is too expensive for me until his minutes restriction is lifted. When it comes to Durant and Curry I tend to just play the cheaper one, but like I said with Giannis, you’ll probably want to spend up elsewhere tonight.
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New Orleans Pelicans @ San Antonio Spurs:
Vegas Total: 232.0
Vegas Spread: SA -10.0
The Pelicans are still banged up with Davis, Mirotic and Randle all still out, so we should be able to grab some value here. Kenrich Williams feels like the best source of value from this team, he’s gotten at least 30 minutes in the past two games and has scored over 30 draftkings points in both of those. At only $4,100 he makes for a solid play tonight. Darius Miller has seen a price increase but has been producing in the minutes he’s been getting, you could do worse. If this game is able to stay close it will be because of Jrue Holiday, who is now priced over $9,000. He’s playing 35+ minutes per game and averages 1.4 fantasy points per minute with Davis, Mirotic, Randle and Payton off the floor. If you can make it work, play him. From the Spurs, DeRozan feels too cheap and will see a pace up matchup, this is a nice spot for him. I normally don’t play LaMarcus Aldridge because to be honesty I can never get him right, but it’s a fine spot for him tonight. Bryn Forbes under $4k is a nice source of value if you need it as well.
Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves:
Vegas Total: 221.0
Vegas Spread: Den -1.5
In what should be a pretty good game from a basketball perspective, the Nuggets go to Minnesota tonight. The Nuggets are all priced appropriately tonight, but if I had to pick a guy from this team to play it would be Will Barton for GPP’s. His minutes are a bit all over the place, but can produce nicely in this spot. From the Wolves, I always like Karl-Anthony Towns at under $10k but draws a tough matchup against Nikola Jokic so I’ll likely go elsewhere. Andrew Wiggins is the only other guy I want from this team with Rose back in the rotation.
Houston Rockets @ Utah Jazz:
Vegas Total: 222.5
Vegas Spread: Utah -7.0
To make it short and sweet, if Chris Paul is out tonight I’ll be playing James Harden. He’s proven to be worth the price tag at over $13k and now he’s $12,500 go ahead and lock him in if Paul is indeed out. Kenneth Faried draws a tough assignment here, but has solid in every game since joining the Rockets, if he ends up in your lineup I won’t blame you. Eric Gordon also makes for a great play if Paul is out at only $5000. From the Jazz, Rudy Gobert makes for a great play, we saw Nikola Jokic beat this team up last night and the Jazz just don’t have anyone who is big enough or skilled enough to contain Gobert. Ricky Rubio came through for us last night as a part of the core and his price didn’t budge, he draws a nice matchup if Chris Paul is out and I may go right back to the well here.
Atlanta Hawks @ Phoenix Suns:
Vegas Total: 235.0
Vegas Spread: Pho -2.5
These are two really bad teams, but could make for a very nice fantasy game. Starting with the Hawks, Taurean Prince is my favorite play here, he is far too cheap and could see 30 minutes in an advantageous matchup. He’s not in the greatest form, but the Suns have a knack for curing that kind of thing. There’s not much else from the Hawks that I love, you can make a case for John Collins in GPP. From the Suns, the whole starting five is in play as the draw a fantastic matchup. We probably won’t have the salary for Booker, but he makes for a great GPP play. Bridges has seen at least 35 minutes in his past three games and is good source of value at $4,100.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Sacramento Kings:
Vegas Total: 235.0
Vegas Spread: Phi -3.0
The same thing can be said for the 76ers as the Suns, the whole starting five is in play here as they draw a great matchup with the Kings. My favorite play is probably Jimmy Butler at $7,600 purely because I won’t have the money to get up the Embiid or Simmons and Butler has 50 point upside in this matchup. Embiid and Simmons are perfectly fine GPP plays, but like I said I know who my top spend is tonight (should Chris Paul sit). From the Kings, Marvin Bagley is too cheap and could draw around 30 minutes tonight and has 40 point upside. Cauley-Stein is also too cheap, but his minutes have been all over the place which makes him hard to trust for cash games. Fox, Hield and Bogdanovic feel like the same play at different price ranges if that makes sense, I would be nervous rostering Hield and Fox though as Butler and Simmons both play very solid defense on the other end.
If there’s one thing we love at DFS Army, it’s teaching people to win. TemaBruce has been a member for awhile now and is active in our coaching forums. Nothing makes me happier than watching him take down his first gpp. Anyone of any skill level has room to grow their game, and our blend of content, tools, and coaching pull it all together time and time again for VIPs. To see more like TeamBruce, check out our Wall of Wins!!
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the core or game break a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches. If you don’t know about them, our two newest pages contain Breaking News and our exclusive Coaches’ Picks……both invaluable for late breaking news and pivots in NBA. Let’s make some money tonight!
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