Hello DFS Army members! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am one of the new content contributors here at DFS Army and I’m very excited to join the team! I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 5-6 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. I love the challenge that DFS brings and my main sports are basketball, football, and baseball. I play on both FanDuel and Draftkings so this article will be tailored towards those two sites.
This article will be expanding into some new territory here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, are a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on. So with that said, lets dig in! We’ll start off with your Value Traps.
Looking for more strategy? Look no further than DFS n’ Donuts’ NBA article here.
A quick look at yesterday’s Value Traps (Using FanDuel Scoring):
Value Traps 1/27
Mikal Bridges – (26.7) Bridges actually looked to shoot the ball last night which was a huge surprise. He put up most of his FPs in the first half and then faded down the stretch.
Trey Burke – (18.2) Had a gut feeling about this one, he even got additional minutes at Ntilikina got hurt. He’s in line for huge minutes tonight though, so stay tuned.
Josh Okogie – (7.9) Guy just continues to under produce, doesn’t seem interested in the game at all and just looked really out of place last night. Hope you heeded my advice and stayed away!
Now let’s dig into today’s slate!
Value Traps
Tyreke Evans (DK $5,200 FD $5,100)
A lot of people will be on Evans tonight for a bounce back game as he is now starting since Oladipo went down with that nasty injury. I’ll be avoiding him tonight and moving forward and I’ll tell you why. If you’ve watched Evans throughout his career, he usually has his best games when he can dominate control of the ball (usually as a 6th man and big 2nd unit guy). The teams he has been on where he can do that were plainly usually just bad and there wasn’t a lot of talent around him. That’s what is different in Indiana. As a starter here he is likely their 5th option on offense behind the rest of the regular starters, and even if he picks up additional minutes with the second unit he still isn’t the #1 option with Sabonis. His usage rate of 27% looks good on paper, but that is largely dictated by his role with the second unit for the entire year. As the season goes and if he does continue to start you will see that rate continue to dip, in his start last game it was 16.9%. His average value over the last 3 games is 3.7x on FD and 3.8x on Draftkings. I’ll be avoiding him tonight and you should too.
UPDATE: AS I WAS WRITING THIS EVANS HAS BEEN RULED OUT TONIGHT!!! AARON HOLIDAY MAKES A GREAT PIVOT AND DROP SCORE PLAY ON FD AS WELL AS SOLID VALUE ON DK!
UPDATE TO THE UPDATE: EDMOND SUMNER WILL START FOR INDIANA, THIS WILL CUT INTO HOLIDAY’S MINUTES, I WOULD RANK AVERY BRADLEY AHEAD OF AARON HOLIDAY WITH THIS NEWS.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (DK $3,900 FD $4,400)
MKG is my second value option that I am avoiding tonight. Batum and Marvin Williams’ minutes have been trending upwards (both played 35+ last game), causing his to trend down. He never really has been much of a scorer and his last game is an outlier as he scored 16 actual points. He’s only scored over 10 actual points in 3 out of his last 13 and it’s never during consecutive games. His last 3 games his net value return has been 3.7x on FD and 4.4x on DK, nothing groundbreaking. For some reason I also have a gut feeling that this game is going to be closer than the spread says, which would also mean increased minutes for starters as Charlotte isn’t going to want to get embarrassed by losing to the Knicks at home.
Wily Hernangomez (DK $3,900 FD $4,500)
This one really stands out to me in the optimizer as it is projecting him for almost 22 FPs on both sites which would net you 5.64x and 4.88x value which seem like great numbers. But if you dig deep into the Who’s Hot section Hernangomez is at the bottom of the list. Over his last 3 games he is averaging over 5 FPs less than his average and his minutes continue to trend downward. Last game the guy played 8 minutes, 8! And he has played less than 20 minutes in 8 out of his last 9 games. He seems to be falling out of favor with the Charlotte coaching staff and even if he gets the 17 minutes the RS and DS is projecting, I don’t see him scoring more than 15 FPs which will kill your lineups. I’m avoiding him as a value pick today.
Theo Pinson (DK $4,400 FD $4,100)
People will see Pinson’s last game where he played 25 minutes and put up over 30FPs which seemingly came out of nowhere. This caused him to see a major salary spike on both sites. $4,400 on DK is simply outrageous for a guy who has barely seen the court all year. Pinson carries way too much risk for me. I believe the only reason he saw as much time as he did last game was because D’Angelo Russell struggled so badly and only played 23 minutes, I think Russell should bounce back nicely and once again play over 30 minutes which will significantly cut into Pinson’s role. The Nets are looking for a guy to fill the void left by Spencer Dinwiddie while he is out, and I see Shabazz Napier filling in that role as he fits in better as their second unit point guard. If both Joe Harris and Treveon Graham play tonight it creates even less of a chance for him to repeat that performance. There is a ton of value that has opened up on tonight’s slate that are much better plays and don’t carry the risk that Pinson does. I would only consider him if both Harris and Graham are ruled out. Even then it would be strictly GPP only.
For more situations to monitor, check out CeeGee’s 1st Look article here!
The next section of my article looks at who is trending in the right direction, and who is hot, using some of the tools from the Research Station to help us get an early jump on guys that are heating up before everyone else catches on.
Who’s Trending
Trey Burke (DK $4,200 FD $4,500)
Funny how DFS works isn’t it? Last night he was one of my Value Traps and tonight he’s one of my value pivots. However, buyer beware! Seriously guys and gals, Burke is in a great spot tonight but he definitely comes with risk. This Knicks rotation is completely unpredictable right now as we’ve seen everyone’s numbers fluctuate with Fizdale at the helm. Granted with that being said I don’t see how he doesn’t get a ton of minutes tonight with Ntilikina already being ruled out. He also has favorable numbers against Charlotte as he put up a 60 burger last time against them and is averaging 33.5 FD points and 34.9 DK points in the last 3 matchups against them. The Kyrie news also will have everyone flocking to Rozier which should help keep his ownership % down a bit. Also he is a big hit in our Who’s Hot and Minutes Up section as shown below. He even clocks is as the RS and DS’s #1 ranked value tonight and is projected to hit 7x value!
Tobias Harris (DK $8,000 FD $7,800)
The Clippers are definitely a team you want to be targeting tonight. Gallinari has already been ruled out which will keep Tobias playing huge minutes along with the rest of the starters. I think people will also flock to KD tonight with the Draymond news, but KD’s usage actually goes down when he is out. Using our Who’s Hot and Clock Watch tools we can see he’s averaged 5x value over his last 3, which includes the “dud” he put up yesterday which was still close to 30 FPs.
He’s playing huge minutes right now, averaging 33 a game and averaging 38 FPs per game over his last three. I see him playing huge minutes again tonight and I think his floor is that 30. Add in the pace matchup and I think he’s a safe bet for a 40+ FP game tonight.
Patrick Beverley (DK $4,500 FD $4,600)
Did someone say Clippers night? Its hard not to like them tonight. They are facing the Hawks who are the 26th ranked defense and their starters have been playing huge minutes. The lowest amount Beverley has played in the last 5 games is 34 minutes and tops out at 41. Take a look at his stats over the last three:
The Hawks also play at a very fast pace and we know that Beverley is an excellent defender. He gets a rookie point guard in Trae Young tonight who we know has his fair share of turnovers. I think Beverley meets value just in peripheral stats alone tonight.
Avery Bradley (DK $3,700 FD $3,900)
Mr. Bradley is trending in all the right directions for us as well. This Clippers team is hot right now and they are riding their starters and getting solid production off the bench from Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell. Take a look at Bradley’s Who’s Hot and Clock Watch over his last 3 games:
He’s AVERAGING over 36 minutes per game and has scored over 20 FPs in each of his last 5. I really like him on FD as your drop score candidate tonight, because if he duds, it only costs you $3,900 and if he hits for 25-30 FPs that’ll net you a nice 6.4x-7.69x value. Add in the fact that the Hawks are terrible defensively and play at a really fast pace, this game sets up for him to grab an extra steal or two as well.
DeMarcus Cousins (DK $6,500 FD $7,200)
Boogie is back! This Golden State team was already tough before he came back, but now just forget it, I don’t think any team will be able to hang with them the rest of the way. While he doesn’t jump out in the Who’s Hot and Clock Up sections I think we are ahead of the curve on this one. Draymond is resting tonight which should open up I believe another 5 or so minutes for Boogie as I think Kerr will need to lift that minutes restriction tonight. Keep an eye out for that because if we see that he will see additional minutes, even if it’s 5 minutes, he averages 1.32 FPPM and I expect that to bump up as he will see additional usage with Green out. KD’s usage actually goes DOWN with Green out, but I really like Boogie tonight, I have Horford rated higher than him on FD but if we see that he will get a few extra minutes tonight that would bump him over Horford for me.
Al Horford (DK $6,400 FD $6,900)
Ahh this year’s motto continues to ring true. I’m gonna say it again and again so pay attention everyone, PLAY CENTERS VS. THE NETS!!! They are dead last at defending the position and don’t look now but Horford has been trending up lately as well! Take a look at his numbers below:
Over his last 3 games he’s averaging 8.39 more FPs per game and he’s playing about 4 more minutes per game. I don’t see Baynes playing much in this game either as Brooklyn spreads the floor more with their shooters and don’t really bang inside, which is more of Baynes’ game. Kyrie being ruled out also adds to his usage as well. If Boogie stays on his minutes restriction tonight I would pick Horford on FanDuel since you only get one center slot.
Terry Rozier (DK $5,300 FD $4,500)
This one is pretty easy guys, Kyrie is out, and we know that Rozier sees a huge minutes and usage increase. I don’t think we really need to go into too much depth here, just lock him in for your cash games and I’ll be using him in GPPs as well, but just know with GPPs that he will be highly owned for good reason.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!
