Hello DFS Army members! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am one of the new content contributors here at DFS Army and I’m very excited to join the team! I am @mutt18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 5-6 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. I love the challenge that DFS brings and my main sports are basketball, football, and baseball. I play on both FanDuel and Draftkings so this article will be tailored towards those two sites.
This article will be expanding into some new territory here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, are a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on. So with that said, lets dig in! We’ll start off with your Value Traps.
Value Traps
Mikal Bridges (DK $3,800 FD $4,200)
I’ll start off with Mikal Bridges. I’ve used him a few times this year and every time I’ve been left with a sour taste in my mouth. This guy seemingly has everything going in the right direction for him and yet he continues to under produce. TJ Warren and DeAnthony Melton will continue to be out tonight which opens the door yet again for Bridges. He’s currently projected in the Research Station on DK for 20.5 FP and on FD for 21.8 FP which would return values of 5.4x and 5.2x. I’m here to tell you I’ve watched the last few Suns games and this guy just doesn’t look to be interested in doing anything at all on the offensive end. Add in the fact that Ayton has been upgraded to a GTD tonight, if he plays he hurts Bridges value even more. Bridges has played close to 30 MPG over his last 7 and the highest FP total he cracked was 30, and only because he scored 15 points which was a rare feat in itself. The guy is carrying a usage percentage of 12.3% and averages .68 FPPM…yuck. On a bigger than average Sunday slate there are plenty of more options than Bridges that don’t carry the type of risk he does. On Fanduel he’s easier to stomach due to the drop score option, but I will be staying far away from him today.
Trey Burke (DK $3,900 FD $3,900)
A lot of people will be on Burke today after his performance last game and I see why. In 33 minutes last game he scored 25 actual points added in a few assists along with a block and a pair of steals. What people don’t see, is that Frank Ntilikina started that game and fouled out in just 19 minutes, which is the only reason Burke played as much as he did. Throw in the volatility of the Knicks rotation (Kanter, Trier, Dotson, etc.) there are too many red flags there for me today to roster Burke without a few drinks in my system to sway my better judgment. Take another quick look at his game log and you’ll see that Burke had a whopping total of 0 minutes played in his previous four games. I could see stomaching him on FanDuel as your drop score candidate in GPP’s, but I will be staying far away on DraftKings.
Josh Okogie (DK $4,400 FD $4,400)
This pains me to add him to this list as he won me a bunch of money earlier this year, but Okogie has just been given opportunity after opportunity and has just done nothing with it. He’s played at least 20 minutes in most games since the Wolves traded away General Soreness and there have been flashes, but he just can’t put together any type of consistency. His last two games he played 28 and 40 minutes which resulted in less than 20 FP’s each, one of those being against this Utah team that they are playing again today. Add in the fact that Jerryd Bayless has been playing well in the backcourt this takes away even more usage from Okogie as well. Many will see he put up over 30 FP’s 3 games ago, but that was against the Suns, who I’m pretty sure I could put up at least 20 points on with the pace they play. I’m avoiding him everywhere, but even more so if Rose decided to suit up in this one.
For more situations to monitor, check out CeeGee’s 1st Look article here
The next section of my article looks at who is trending in the right direction, and who is hot, using some of the tools from the Research Station to help us get an early jump on guys that are heating up before everyone else catches on.
Who’s Trending
Jerryd Bayless (DK $4,400 FD $4,200)
This one is going to be dependant on the D. Rose news. If Rose plays, Bayless’ usefulness to us takes a hit. If D. Rose sits, you might as well just lock him in, especially on FanDuel. We already know that Teague is out which should open up about 20 minutes for him. Even is Rose plays I still see Bayless playing big minutes as the T-Wolves like to rotate two point guards. Take a look at his numbers in Who’s Hot and Clock Watch below:
Over his last 3 his minutes have gone up an average of over 15 per game, and that includes two games where Rose did play! He’s also just been playing good basketball while being given the opportunity. At his price point it’s hard not to play him even if Rose plays, as his floor seems to be about 20 FP which would still next you that 5x value you’re looking for in cash. I see his ceiling around 35-40 FP which would help you crush that value you need in GPP’s.
Elie Okobo (DK $3,500 FD $3,700)
I’ll start off by saying that this pick does come with some risk. As we saw last time out that Okobo failed to meet up to expectations with Melton out. People will be scared off by that along with the fact that on paper the Lakers are Top 5 at defending PG’s, but that was with Lonzo who is a great defender, today he will get Rondo, who we know is not! Keep an eye on the Ayton news because if Ayton sits it will open up a bit more usage for Okobo as well. He has played well with the second unit and now has a game under his belt to adjust with the first unit. With LeBron and Ball continuing to be out I don’t see the Suns getting blown out in this was as they did last game, even so he still met 5x value. I see Okobo’s floor getting you 5x value in this one as he only needs 15FP and 18.5FP to get you that number and has a ceiling of I believe 30-35 FP’s which can help you take down those GPP’s. I like him more on FanDuel with the drop score format as well.
Rajon Rondo (DK $6,200 FD $6,700)
You had to see this one coming right? No LeBron, no Lonzo and a healthy Rondo against a rookie Suns point guard in a fast paced game, sign me up! He’s hits a lot of point in the Who’s Hot and Clock Watch sections of the RS as well, see here:
He played 37 minutes last game and put up great stats. You know he is usually going to get his assists which keeps his floor higher than most, and against Okobo in a higher paced game I see him picking up a few additional steals and layups. As long as he keeps his antics in check I can see him getting another 40+ FP game. You’ll see his minutes are still trending down a bit, but that’s only because he sat out the last 14 games. Add in the fact that KCP and Hart haven’t been playing the best of basketball right now and the opportunity is there for Rajon. Keep an eye on Kuzma as well, if he doesn’t play it opens up even more usage for him.
Kenneth Faried (DK $5,900 FD $6,600)
The Manimal is back baby! Until Capela gets back Faried seems to have carved himself a nice role in this Rockets rotation. Nene being older than dirt helps as well. Using the Who’s Hot and Clock Watch tool you can see everything is trending in the right direction for him as well. He’s averaging over 11 more MPG on the Rockets and from his days with the Nuggets we know that he produced at a high FPPM when he gets the time. He should see another 30+ minutes in this one and I see him building on his strong play once again. However, keep an eye on the CP3 news. If CP3 plays I see his usage taking a bit of a hit, so if he plays I would bump Faried down a bit, but regardless the minutes should still be there and he has a high ceiling with his rebounding ability. Orlando also has a tendency to be soft inside with Gordon and Vucevic which will further help boost Manimal’s presence down low.
Jonathan Isaac (DK $4,700 FD $5,300)
If you guys have been paying attention to the Magic lately you’d notice that Isaac has begun to pick up his play as really has been looking great lately. He’s averaging around 30 MPG these days which appear to be consistent as long as he doesn’t get into foul trouble.
You’ll see that over his last 3 he’s averaging about 7 more FPPG along with playing about 3.5 more minutes per game. This leads to increased opportunities and we’re beginning to see why Orlando was so high on him. Add in the fact that this is a pace up game against the Rockets his peripheral stats should see a boost as well. I like Isaac today and you should too!
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We had quite the finish to our best ever NFL season. NBA is hopping right now, and MLB is on the way. See our Wall of Wins for a track record you just can’t match anywhere else.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaching forums or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now go win some money!
