Hello DFS Army members! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am one of the new content contributors here at DFS Army and I’m very excited to join the team! I am @mutt18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 5-6 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. I love the challenge that DFS brings and my main sports are basketball, football, and baseball. I play on both FanDuel and Draftkings so this article will be tailored towards those two sites. I am also working on a tutorial article on how to better understand the numbers being shown to you under the Who’s Hot and Clock Watch sections of the Research Station.
This article will be expanding into some new territory here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, are a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on. So with that said, lets dig in!
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Quick look at last article’s Value Traps from 1/28. (Will use FD scoring):
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist – (11.6) No surprise there in the letdown here, he got into foul trouble early and saw limited playing time, which I think actually opened up the door for more for Hernangomez.
Wily Hernangomez – (24) Went from playing under 10 minutes to over 20, just shows the continued unpredictability with him. Still, at 24 FPs points it was nothing earth shattering and there were much better center options on the slate.
Theo Pinson – (2.7) Just like we expected, it was a one game anomaly for Pinson as he got some decent playing time in this one as well and still did nothing.
If you checked the Coaches Notes yesterday you would see I dropped in that the traps yesterday were:
Elie Okobo (9.6) This one was weird as he started off playing very well at the beginning of the game, but once again was outplayed by Jamal Crawford off the bench and didn’t see much of the floor the rest of the game.
Andre Drummond (50.6) This was a weird game as Drummond actually played well against a stretch 5 in Brook Lopez. Griffin wasn’t as dominate in this one as I thought he would be. But again, with the value of Okafor and the late news of Noel starting both those guys represented much better value.
With that said, let’s dig into today!
Value Traps
Trey Burke (DK $4,800 FD $5,400)
I don’t know about all of you, but I’ve learned my lesson about playing Knicks other than THJ with Fizdale at the helm. This rotation is completely unpredictable and everyone’s minutes fluctuate from night to night. In the interest of protecting your wallet, do not get #fizzedon and put Burke in your cash games tonight. That being said, we all know that Burke has a very high ceiling, but just as well his floor is even lower and he could be benched at any time for no rhyme or reason as Fizdale is seemingly purposely tanking in the hopes that the Knicks can get Zion. Burke is always worth a shot in a GPP lineup or two as he can get you that 50+ FP night but with his volatility and the uncertainty of his playing time, I can’t in good confidence recommend you play him tonight. I’m staying far away from him in my cash game lineups on both sites.
Edmond Sumner (DK $3,700 FD $3,500)
Sumner is in here for many of the same reasons I had Tyreke Evans in here the other night before he got scratched. Before starting and playing 28 minutes the other night he hadn’t played more than 5 minutes in a game in weeks. Evans will continue to be out tonight and it is likely that Sumner will start again with Oladipo also out for the foreseeable future. Sumner is in even a worse spot than Evans on offense as he was basically just an extra body floating out there against the Warriors. He’s probably their 7th or 8th option on offense. NEWSFLASH, that doesn’t equal FPs. In those 28 minutes he played he got you a whopping 13.8 DKPs and 17.6 FDPs which was aided by two blocks and two steals in the blowout by the Warriors. The RS is also predicting his minutes to dip to around 24 as this game should stay close and I see the Pacers wanting to take a better look at what they have in Aaron Holiday as I see his minutes trending upward. Sumner is currently projected to hit for 5.2x value on FD and 4.9x on DK. Where FanDuel has the drop score I could feasibly seeing him being used there, but he just doesn’t have that upside you are looking for in GPPs on either site and there is value opening up as the injury news continues to flow in.
Justin Holiday (DK $4,300 FD $4,600)
This is one that really sticks out in the RS that makes no sense to me. He is currently projected to hit for 5.9x value on DK and 5.4x value on FD. This Holiday brother is the worst of the bunch by far. His minutes are way up and his FPs continue to trend downward. The RS numbers are still being influenced by his time with the Bulls as it says that he is averaging about 0.71 FPPM. However, since he has been given minutes in the Grizzlies rotation he is averaging about 0.59 FPPM over his last 7. Who’s Hot? Definitely not this Holiday:
Kyle Anderson is also back for the Grizzlies which will cut into his usage a bit more as well as he only played 30 minutes last game out as he was in foul trouble. However, keep an eye on the injury news for the Grizzlies, if Jaren Jackson Jr. and JaMychal Green are both out that is the only situation where I can see Holiday becoming viable as the Grizzlies will not have many bodies available off the bench.
For more situations to monitor, check out CeeGee’s 1st Look article here!
The next section of my article looks at who is trending in the right direction, and who is hot, using some of the tools from the Research Station to help us get an early jump on guys that are heating up before everyone else catches on.
Who’s Trending
Buddy Hield (DK $7,200 FD $6,500)
This Atlanta vs. Sacramento game is one that you are going to want to target tonight. Take a look at Hield’s Who’s Trending and Minutes Up section below:
What do you see? Greeeeeeeeeen, which is what he can help you win tonight. Over his last 10 games he’s averaging about 4 more minutes of playing time per game and a little over 3 FPs as well. Add in the paceup game against the Hawks who have one of the worst defenses (27th v. SG’s) in the league and everything is setting up nicely for both Hield and Bogdanovic to have nice games. With his price point I like him more on FanDuel, in fact, I like Hield on FanDuel and Bogdanovic on DraftKings as you get a $700 savings on FanDuel. He’s currently projected to net you 5x value and at $6,500 I could see him being in the 35+ FP range tonight which can really help boost your scores.
Bogdan Bogdanovic (DK $5,500 FD $6,600)
As I stated above, I like Bogdan on DK and Hield on FD. There’s a huge gap in price between the two sites and you can get him for $1,100 less on DraftKings. This game should stay pretty tight and I see both him and Hield playing over 30 minutes each in this game. The Serbian gets you a solid 1.10 FPPM and gets a pace-up game against the Hawks non-existent defense. If those numbers hold up, which they should, that would net you 33 FP’s which would be good for 6x value on DK with 40+ definitely in reach.
Jahlil Okafor (DK $6,600 FD $7,400)
Here’s Okafor’s numbers from Who’s Hot and Clock Watch:
…..yeah, safe to say he’s trending upward. The Pelicans simply don’t have the bodies to put out there, especially in their front court, which lines up for Okafor to play huge minutes once again. Hell, they gave Kenrich Williams 30 minutes last night. I had Jahlil in all of my lines yesterday but pivoted to Noel at the last minute once we got word that Steven Adams was out. He’s especially attractive at $6,600 on DK as these Pelicans are scrappy and even on a B2B and a big win over the Rockets last night I see them hanging around again tonight with the Nuggets. Okafor should be in line for another 40+ FP night with a great shot at getting you that 50+.
Kenrich Williams (DK $3,100 FD $3,600)
#KennyHustle is the PERFECT drop score candidate for you on FanDuel. The guy came out of nowhere and played 30 minutes for the Pels and ripped down 16 boards. Jrue Holiday was praising him in the media for his toughness after the game. He played some great defense as well and with all the Pelicans injuries he should see more minutes tonight. Everything I’ve read on the guy is that he is just plain tough and scrappy, which is exactly what the Pelicans need to be able to continue to stay in games with the amount of injuries they have. Moore is out again tonight along with Davis, Randle and Elf. With the way he played last night we could possible even see him sneak his way into the starting lineup. If that happens I’m locking him in as my Drop Score candidate on FanDuel everywhere so keep an eye out.
Dion Waiters (DK $4,200 FD $4,200)
This one is my biggest risk of the night, as Waiters has made his way back into the rotation and is playing decent minutes. The RS and DS love him on both sites and project him at over 6x value on both, but he does come with a lot of risk as his ability as a DFS player hinges on whether or not his shot is falling. I like him more of Tyler Johnson is out, so keep an eye on that news. If Johnson is out he becomes less risky as he should see additional minutes. Waiters is GPP only for me whether or not Johnson plays, I just like him more if Johnson is out.
Terry Rozier (DK $6,100 FD $6,500)
Once again, Kyrie is out, you know the drill. His price has gone up quite a bit but he will be a cash game lock for me either way as he should have no problem hitting 5x value once again today. He’s also scorching in our models:
Note: I wanted to write up some Hawks today as well, but with the news that Bazemore is probably back tonight it muddies the waters there. Keep an eye peeled for an update on here and I will throw some notes in the coaches forums as well when we get more news.
UPDATE: Bazemore will return tonight and play about 20 minutes. With him back it hurts Huerter and Bembry the most. Hawks I like most from this game are Trae Young and John Collins. Bazemore being back really kills the vibe.
Also as I’m typing this Derrick Rose has been ruled out, this makes Jerryd Bayless a great play again as you remember from earlier in the week he is trending well in the model although his price has gone up a bit.
Lavine also being ruled out puts Marrkanen, Parker, and Portis in a great spot.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!
