Hi there! I’m Aaron/AFriedman15 (@AFriedman15DFS) and this is my first week of Friedman’s Dirty Dozen, where I will include 12ish of my favorite plays, using information from the DFS Army NBA Research Station (RS), StatMuse, and NBA WOWY. Some days, when there is a smaller slate, there will be fewer picks. I will generally list them in order of personal preference. My research is focused around DK and the DK Research station, so keep that in mind. Players may be viable to varying degrees at the other sites as well. I will generally try to write Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays, and Weekends, but I may have some spare time on other days as well. On the days I write, you can generally find me in #cash-keg-nfl-cfb-nba
DeMarcus Cousins: As long as Boogie keeps appearing this high on our value chart and Sim model (where he is 8th!), I am going to rush to roster the perennial all-star until his price reaches the Durant and Curry levels. Even on Yahoo, he remains a very reasonable $20. Boogie is a plug-and-play for me in all formats.
What To Expect Today — CeeGee’s 1st Look!
JJ Redick: The injury bug has attacked the Philadelphia 76ers and you can see several of them loaded up at the top of the RS value report, with Joel Embiid, Jimmy Butler, and Wilson Chandler all out tonight. While JJ Redick is not on in the Value Top 10, he does lead the team in this split with a 36% USG rate and 2nd to Brewer’s extremely small sample averaging 1.28 DK FPPM without the aforementioned players. The models project Redick at 30 minutes, which would yield 38.4 DKFP, returning 6.8x.
Furkan Korkmaz: One 76er will not be nearly enough tonight as even Furkan Korkmaz should absolutely shred his $3,300 salary with his near FPPM status in this split and his status as our top value play of the day.
Jonah Bolden: Moving right down the value chart, Bolden should crush here too without Chandler and Embiid in the lineup. Like Furkan, he is basically a FPPM guy in this split and is squarely in play in all formats. He should also crush at $4,100.
Corey Brewer: Even cheaper yet, is Corey Brewer at $3,800 who actually leads the team in DKFPPM in his 18 minutes in this split.
Ben Simmons: Simmons, is in play too, but for me, the value plays take priority. Simmons is absolutely capable of putting up a triple double, but I was discouraged to see Simmons at just 1.23 FPPM, which would return just 43 points at $9,600, which is not optimal. The RS has him at 47.6, the Sim model 47.18, and the Domination Station at 50.18. As you can see with the price increase report, Simmons has been priced up nearly $1,000. Pushing $10,000, you can see he could struggle to 5x, but he absolutely has the talent to do so.
CJ McCollum : Damian Lillard was going to be my top play of the day, but with him now doubtful, CJ McCollum and his 34% usage without Lillard is squarely in play. It should also be noted that McCollum has the 5th highest And1 rating on the slate. Also a very reasonable $23 on Yahoo. Around 4pm ET, we had an alert that Dame was now questionable, so as always in NBA DFS, stay tuned to the news.
For those who don’t know, golf season has begun, and our DFS Army staff is top notch. Shoutout to maxi1_000_000 for this excellent win!
Tyreke Evans: Evans has the second biggest price increase on the board, as he enters the Pacers lineup in the wake of Victor Oladipo’s season-ending knee injury. Evans leads the team with 28% USG and we have seen him carry teams, most notably Memphis last year, throughout his career. As Coach CeeGee mentioned in #nba-breaking-news, this is a tough matchup, but he is in my player pool.
Aaron Holiday: With all three Holiday brothers in action, I didn’t initially expect the youngest, Aaron, would make my article. He is also near the top of the usage and FPPM lists in this split, but with 16 projected minutes, he will struggle to return value. Strictly GPP, but I will be keeping a close eye on this talented rookie.
Domantas Sabonis: Leads the Pacers with 1.38 DKFPPM without Oladipo and is generally a strong GPP-type due to his minutes. He is only averaging 25 MPG, but will obviously be needed for more scoring without Oladipo. Strictly GPP.
Before lock, check out our “Coaching Notes“
Jusuf Nurkic: Potentially a top 5 play on the slate, and one of the hottest players on the slate, but difficult to get a read, with the news at the moment. I do like him as a pivot off of the much-more expensive Jokic. He is one of the hottest players on the slate.
Those are your Dirty Dozen! Some are going to be commonplace, and some won’t. These are players my research led me to and some will contain risk. Your research may indicate you agree or disagree, and that’s ok….we discuss these things in our coaching channels nightly. Good luck tonight! Check the coaches picks for even more confidence in your plays. And always consult all of the unlocked tools (including the Research Station) before lock! And, if you are catching me on a #FreebieFriday, you are going to want to unlock those coaching channels by admitting……
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