Hi there! I’m Aaron/AFriedman15 (@AFriedman15DFS) and this is my first week of Friedman’s Dirty Dozen, where I will include 12ish of my favorite plays, using information from the DFS Army NBA Research Station (RS), StatMuse, and NBA WOWY. Some days, when there is a smaller slate, there will be fewer picks. I will generally list them in order of personal preference. My research is focused around DK and the DK Research station, so keep that in mind. Players may be viable to varying degrees at the other sites as well. I will generally try to write Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays, and Weekends, but I may have some spare time on other days as well. On the days I write, you can generally find me in #cash-keg-nfl-cfb-nba
James Harden: Today is the last day of James Harden without Chris Paul–who is expected to return Sunday– and surprise, surprise he has landed as the top projected player on the slate, by a fair margin. I will plan to start most of my builds with him. I think there will still be enough value on the slate. Yes, he is playing one of the better defenders in Leonard, but even good matchups have not mattered. Even if he doesn’t replicate the performance in Madison Square Garden, you are still probably in good shape.
What To Expect Today — CeeGee’s 1st Look!
D’Angelo Russell: Russell has been on a heater lately, coming in as the third hottest player on the slate, and one of the top overall plays on the day. Today will be the first game without Spencer Dinwiddie (now lost for the next 4-6 weeks). In this split, Russell is gets a 2.1% usage increase to 34.7% and averages 1.49 FPPM. Russell is a Core play for me.
Shabazz Napier: Napier comes in as the top projected value on the DFS Army NBA DraftKings Research Station (RS) and the DFS Army Sim Model. He will be chalky, but he is in a fantastic spot with a 25% usage rate. At $3,600, he will also be a core play for me to allow me to fit in Harden, Russell, and the mid-tier players that I like.
Mason Plumlee: With The Joker suspended tonight, Plumlee is my second favorite value play on the board. He is a great cash play tonight, but the RS has him with a lower ceiling than Waiters and Napier, so there is certainly merit to fading him in cash.
Allonzo Trier: I had Dion Waiters in this spot earlier in the day, but as the day progresses Waiters has become a Game-Time Decision and Trier seems to be going under the radar compared to Okobo/Napier/Bayless. It can be tough to trust Coach Fitzdale’s rotations, but he is the hottest player in the RS and also seeing a sizable bump in minutes. His price is also significantly less sexy than the aforementioned guards so Trier is intriguing to me. Strictly GPP.
Bogdan Bogdanovic: Bogdanovic has crushed over the last two days yet his price has remained in the mid-$5,000s.
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Evan Fournier: Fournier benefits today with the largest price drop on the slate. He has less upside as Bogdanovic, but arguably a better matchup versus Washington who allows 116 PPG (2nd in the NBA) . The Wizards’ 37% opponent 3 point FG % is the third highest in the league. After a dud last game, I am expecting a bounceback here in this plus matchup.
Jarrett Allen: Jarrett Allen is also in this price range and he is a top 15 value on the Sim Model and top 10 in the RS. Allen gets a plus matchup against the Knicks tonight and will have reduced ownership compared to the Brooklyn guards.
Montrezl Harrell: Same spot as John Collins, who went for 35 and 8 and 53 DK points Wednesday vs. the Bulls. Harrell is 12th in the NBA in paint touches. Even garbage time hero Ante Zizic went for 30 DK points on Martin Luther King Day. His metrics are fair, but not overwhelming, but Chicago simply does not have a match for him. The RS has Harrell at a 36.4 projection (5.4x), and I really like him to up that.
Marvin Bagley III: While I don’t expect 38 minutes like last game, he is still projected for 31 minutes tonight, and I am interested in Bagley for GPPs. I am glad that Sacramento is not on the west coast, as I want to see if Bagley will start. If he does not start, it will diminish my interest.
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Richaun Holmes: Currently sits as questionable on Friday afternoon, but if is starting I love his price in GPPs as he will likely start if he is cleared to play. If you are building with Holmes, I would strongly recommend putting him in the utility spot and have a pivot in mind (even Plumlee) from one of the two 9pm EST games. He should have very low ownership due to the Questionable tag, and he could get upgraded to probable
Jerryd Bayless: Fantastic utility pivot to Holmes or another cheap play. As mentioned in the VIP coaching channels (hint, hint, what are you waiting for?), this is an absolutely terrible spot for the T-Wolves. It will mark their fourth game in six days, their third game in four days and the second of a back-to-back set with overnight eastward travel across a time zone. After facing the Lakers in Los Angeles the night before in a nationally televised game, the Timberwolves will head out — losing an hour along the way — for Salt Lake City to face a Jazz team that enters this game with a one-day rest advantage. Despite the lousy realities, PGs Derrick Rose and Jeff Teague are both questionable, so Bayless makes sense as a utility option, and he sits at the top of the bump in minutes chart.
Those are your Dirty Dozen! Some are going to be commonplace, and some won’t. Good luck tonight! Check out our site including the coaches picks and all of the unlocked tools (including the Research Station) that #FreebieFriday offers. After today, you will need to invest in your game and become a VIP by clicking the below link…
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