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Buyers and Sellers As A Concept
The concept of Buyers and Sellers is simple. Baseline averages tell us a lot. We can use short term numbers as hot/cold indicators as they cross longer term numbers. For example, season long averages and a skater’s last 20 games. If his season fantasy output is 20 points per game, but he is currently producing 23 points per game over his last 20 games, he can be considered running hot. And, if he is only producing 18 points per game, he can be considered running cold.
DFS pricing does not react fast enough. We can use these crossing baselines to indicate whether we should be “buying” or “selling” our skater. See graphic below…
Here we are looking at a crude graphic of a skater’s last 10 games (black) compared to his last 5 games (blue). As the blue line crosses the black line upward, our skater is running hot (green arrow). As he cools off, he will cross below (red arrow). Now, over time, we can visualize whether we should be buying or selling. Since I like looking at L10 games vs L5 games most, let’s look at tonight’s buyers and sellers.
Not an all-inclusive list, I’m focusing on MY favorite teams tonight. I am not even looking at many of the other teams on the slate. Right or wrong, it’s often how I play. Hockey is volatile, and I will have great nights and poor nights. I can live with that. I don’t need to be in constant pursuit of perfection. My VIPs will get my full list later. Join us at the end of the article to unlock it!!
December 6th Buyers
NHL Defense
Mark Giordano (CGY – $6200) – L5 19/L10 15.7 – Gio is an integral part of the Flames offense in all facets. When they run hot, he usually does, too. Great matchup tonight. Our DFS Army Research Station shows this at such a quick glance, your research has never been simpler.
David Engelland (VGK – $3600) – L5 12.8/L10 8.8 – Over both sample sizes, Engelland lead Vegas defensemen in SOGBS (our floor metric at DFSA), which says an awful lot for a deep value play. Another easy buy.
Morgan Rielly (TOR – $6600) – L5 14.0/L10 12.2 – Another huge producer within his offense, as TOR goes, it seems Morgan Rielly follows. The connection with Austin Matthews has been reunited, and it’s clicking again.
NHL Center
Austin Matthews (TOR – $8600) – L5 23.5/L10 20.9 – Easy stack with Rielly above. Matthews is a premier player in this league, and when TOR finds itself rolling well, and in good matchups, you simply roster them and don’t look back.
Sean Monahan (CGY – $7800) – L5 22.9/L10 20.2 – Major piece to the Calgary offense, and another easy stack. This time with Gio. Buy.
Cody Eakin (VGK – $4800) – L5 16.4/L10 12.4 – Need value? How about a center running 4 fpg above his norm? What if I told you it wasn’t a Mark Scheifele or Nathan Mackinnon, but rather a Cody Eakin still priced under $5000? Would you buy that? I think you should.
DFS Wing
Elias Lindholm (CGY – $6400) – L5 20.6/L10 17.7 – One of the few times you will see me stay on that CGY top line instead of breaking off for Matthew Tkachuk to stack with Monahan. But, that’s what you will see when Lindholm is running about his L10 and Tkachuk isn’t. Buy Lindholm.
Clayton Keller (ARI – $6400) – L5 15.7/L10 11.6 – Local STL boy does a city proud! Keller is rolling of late. Easy buy in a great gpp spot for an overlooked offense. (See my DFS Diary video entry today for why I like ARI.)
Andreas Johnsson (TOR – $3600) – L5 16.9/L10 10.1 – Cheap chalk, but big value! Johnsson will not go overlooked tonight with TOR in such a great matchup. People love punting wings with access to studs. This play easily lights that lamp. Big time buy.
December 6th Sellers
DFS Defense
Ryan McDonagh (TBL – $5000) – L5 8.3/L10 11.3 – Solid defenseman with a great role in this offense. But, sometimes, we need to pump the brakes a tad. McDonagh might quickly return to form, but with Victor Hedman on the top lines, we might want McDonagh to fall back into the 4k range for us.
DFS Center
Brayden Point (TBL – $7900) – L5 17.4/L10 20.6 – I’ve said for awhile that Brayden Point feels overpriced. He had been producing, and we’ve been playing him. However, DFS is a price-sensitive game and we can take our foot off the gas and see if this is a temporary cold streak or if we were right in him being overpriced.
NHL Wing
Matthew Tkachuk (CGY – $6600) – L5 12.9/L10 17.7 – It pains me to put a Tkachuk on this list as a sell, but numbers don’t lie. Normally, a cash game stalwart, and usually at great ownerships, he just isn’t producing as consistently as we’d like for tonight’s matchup.
Final Recommendation
Let me know how you like this format in our coaching channels. I rely on your feedback for new concepts and to bring you information you feel makes you better players.
Remember, on larger slates, you are just going to need to take stands. No one can cover all the bases and find every key player from every game without a little luck. What we can do, however, is narrow our pool to the best possible choices and hope to hit on the right players in those top spots. Correlation is often the key to gpps. But, on larger slates, you can limit your stacking and really spread out for cash games and head to heads. For your upside contests in that cash lineup, consider 3man leagues or 10man leagues. Any cash lineup can beat 10 people, and you gain some upside for doing so. Smart money plays in DFS. Be smart.
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