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The concept of Buyers and Sellers is simple. Baseline averages tell us a lot. We can use short term numbers as hot/cold indicators as they cross longer term numbers. For example, season long averages and a skater’s last 20 games. If his season fantasy output is 20 points per game, but he is currently producing 23 points per game over his last 20 games, he can be considered running hot. And, if he is only producing 18 points per game, he can be considered running cold.
DFS pricing does not react fast enough. We can use these crossing baselines to indicate whether we should be “buying” or “selling” our skater. See graphic below…
Here we are looking at a crude graphic of a skater’s last 10 games (black) compared to his last 5 games (blue). As the blue line crosses the black line upward, our skater is running hot (green arrow). As he cools off, he will cross below (red arrow). Now, over time, we can visualize whether we should be buying or selling. Since I like looking at L10 games vs L5 games most, let’s look at tonight’s buyers and sellers.
December 4th Buyers
NHL Defense
Oscar Klefbom (EDM – $5600) – L5 23.3/L10 16.2 – Nearly 7 points above his L10 is just raging hot. When you see these, you really don’t ask a lot of questions. You just roster them in all formats. It just so happens Klef is the best access to both McDavid and Draisaitl should either of them also have a huge game. Stack with them, or one-off him in an effort to leverage the fact both McDavid and Draisaitl are technically sell signals right now…..they just happen to be in phenomenal spots tonight.
Hampus Lindholm (ANA – $4600) – L5 18.0/L10 11.9 – Another raging at 7 points above his L10. And, 18 points at $4600 is nearly 5x production for cheap. Black Friday Buy!
NHL Center
Ryan O’Rielly (STL – $6900) – L5 15.1/L10 12.2) – If anyone is going to do damage for STL, it’s Ryan “Auto Parts” O’Rielly. 38% of the team’s scoring flows through him in some way. Buy, even on larger slates.
Connor McDavid (EDM – $9100) – L5 15.2/L10 17.8 – Yes, I see this is actually a sell signal. But, sometimes the player is just too good, the slate is too short, and the defense is too soft. A few players can break the slate tonight, but if we ran this slate 1000 times through a simulator, McDavid would break it most often. Hot or cold, sometimes our hand just gets forced outside of contrarian gpp shots (ballsy but viable strategy, also).
DFS Wing
Joe Pavelski (SJS – $7800) – L5 20.2/L10 20.4 – Pavelski is interesting. He was scorching hot last week or so. Now, what does it tell you when his L5 is even with his L10? Knowing he was scorching hot, it should be telling you he is on his way back to earth and about to cross into sell territory. He looks harmless, but is actually on his way down. You can get ahead of the curve here on bigger slates, but maybe not on a 3 game slate like tonight. That said, I point it out because I would like you guys watching these things and their movements going forward. If you get good at spotting these, you can definitely time the curve and get off the train early.
Pontus Aberg (ANA – $3700) – L5 16.0/L10 11.6 – Who doesn’t want a $3700 player running white hot? Helps you afford bigger guns in EDM tonight should you want a piece of the McJesus.
David Perron (STL – $4800) – L5 13.5/L10 8.0 – Strong buy here, but from an interesting team. STL hasn’t had much of an issue scoring. Their issue is defense. Our problem tonight is EDM is the 31st ranked team in goals allowed……meaning they aren’t allowing anyone to score. So, hot or not, this is a tougher spot for Perron.
December 4th Sellers
DFS Defense
Erik Karlsson (SJS – $6800) – L5 8.7/L10 15.3 – What goes up must come down.
DFS Center
Jonathan Toews (CHI – $7100) – L5 7.2/L10 11.5 – Ranked 17th in goals for over the past few weeks, but worse on the year. CHI offense is not producing. Cold streaks within it are killers. Sell.
NHL Wing
Leon Draisaitl (EDM – $6800) – L5 10.3/L10 16.4 – This one is a very hard one because EDM is in such a good spot and Draisaitl produces at nearly 40% of the team’s scoring. He could backfire on me tonight, but in the interest of showing what a classic sell candidate looks like, his name goes on the list.
Final Recommendation
Let me know how you like this format in our coaching channels. I rely on your feedback for new concepts and to bring you information you feel makes you better players.
Remember, on larger slates, you are just going to need to take stands. No one can cover all the bases and find every key player from every game without a little luck. What we can do, however, is narrow our pool to the best possible choices and hope to hit on the right players in those top spots. Correlation is often the key to gpps. But, on larger slates, you can limit your stacking and really spread out for cash games and head to heads. For your upside contests in that cash lineup, consider 3man leagues or 10man leagues. Any cash lineup can beat 10 people, and you gain some upside for doing so. Smart money plays in DFS. Be smart.
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