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The concept of Buyers and Sellers is simple. Baseline averages tell us a lot. We can use short term numbers as hot/cold indicators as they cross longer term numbers. For example, season long averages and a skater’s last 20 games. If his season fantasy output is 20 points per game, but he is currently producing 23 points per game over his last 20 games, he can be considered running hot. And, if he is only producing 18 points per game, he can be considered running cold.
DFS pricing does not react fast enough. We can use these crossing baselines to indicate whether we should be “buying” or “selling” our skater. See graphic below…
Here we are looking at a crude graphic of a skater’s last 10 games (black) compared to his last 5 games (blue). As the blue line crosses the black line upward, our skater is running hot (green arrow). As he cools off, he will cross below (red arrow). Now, over time, we can visualize whether we should be buying or selling. Since I like looking at L10 games vs L5 games most, let’s look at tonight’s buyers and sellers.
December 4th Buyers
NHL Defense
Thomas Chabot ($5700 – OTT) – L5 16.7/L10 15 – Chabot was running below his L10 recently, but has spiked back above it. Buy, and track him through the next few weeks. He might be priced about right and timing him will become critical to realize value.
Jacob Trouba (4800 – WPG) – L5 16.5/L10 11.6 – Clearly, Trouba is running hot. Winnipeg is a team we want to possibly target tonight, and the combination makes him a great buy candidate.
Jared Spurgeon ($4600 – MIN) – L5 13.2/L10 9.2 – Another team we want to target, and another player spiking above his baseline. Dumba will be the most popular MIN defenseman, but Spurgeon carries better production for the price right now.
NHL Center
Mark Scheifele ($8600 – WPG) – L5 25.9/L10 20.1 – Quite the heater Scheifele is on right now. Many of his counterparts are cooling off, and it’s obvious if you watch the L5 vs L10 trends. Buy!
Eric Staal – ($7300 – MIN) – L5 19/L10 13.6 – Strong buy, especially given the matchup tonight. Where Koivu was rolling last week, Staal is the play this week. Board the train.
William Karlsson ($7300 – VGK) – L5 15.8/L10 12.5 – While Vegas isn’t in a smash spot tonight, they aren’t in a bad spot, either. Karlsson is producing enough over his salary, you can buy him. However, don’t just want the L5 vs L10, you also need to watch what that L5 is compared to his salary. 15.8 is just over 2x at this already pricey tag. You can find 3x many times.
DFS Wing
Max Pacioretty – (6600 – VGK) – L5 20.7/L10 18.6 – Here is well over 3x for you right now, speaking of the devil. I’d prefer the Knights in a better spot tonight, but I won’t argue the streak Patches is on. And, being it’s not a lot above his L10, it looks sustainable, too. Plan to ride this one up over $7000 if need be.
Blake Wheeler – (7800 – WPG) – L5 20.5/L10 14.6 – Wheeler will be a frequent flyer on the buy/sell lists as he rises and falls. He’s a buy right now, and I’m bullish.
Brady Tkachuk – ($4800 – OTT) – L5 17.9/L10 13.4 – The best kept secret in DFS NHL is still the best kept secret. Brady is a $6000+ player you get for under 5k still. Until more people play him, his price sill stay low because ownership is a factor in most algorithms. So, shhhhhhh….
December 4th Sellers
DFS Defense
Jeff Petry ($4300 – MTL) – L5 9.4/L10 11.4 – Normally, an high floor guy and one of our staples in cash games for value, Petry is running cold. Even in a great spot tonight, I’m looking to roster players above their baselines.
Ryan McDonagh ($5000 – TBL) – L5 8.3/L10 11.0 – McDonagh was also a guy we were rostering at will just a week or so ago. Not now, and while people love Tampa, I will let them overlook the defense Detroit is currently playing, further dropping this matchup in the sell category.
DFS Center
Patrick DuBois ($6200 – CBJ) – L5 16.6/L10 20.6 – He has to come back to earth sometime. And, it looks like we are finally seeing our opportunity to time him correctly. $6200 is still an attractive price for 20 points per game, but that number should also fall if we head back to historical averages for DuBois.
Egveni Malkin ($8200 – PIT) – L5 7.9/L10 13.7 – The first thing you should notice is the 13.7 for his L10. That’s beyond low for Malkin. He can sustain 22+ for long stretches. That’s how cold he is. Expecting value from him at $8200 is overpaying to the alimony I pay my ex-wife, and my second one, and my third one……..all rolled into one monthly check.
NHL Wing
Cam Atkinson ($7200 – CBJ) – L5 15.9/L10 23.7 – Another coming back to earth. It was a great run, and I look forward to getting to use him again. But, for now…..sell.
Phil Kessel ($8100 – PIT) – L5 8.7/L10 14.6 – I don’t use Kessel often, but he was a great producer recently for the Penguins. Now, he’s just a 3rd liner costing you 1st liner pricing. You can wait for his next buy opportunity. You’ll get a few this year. Be patient.
Final Recommendation
Let me know how you like this format in our coaching channels. I rely on your feedback for new concepts and to bring you information you feel makes you better players.
Remember, on larger slates, you are just going to need to take stands. No one can cover all the bases and find every key player from every game without a little luck. What we can do, however, is narrow our pool to the best possible choices and hope to hit on the right players in those top spots. Correlation is often the key to gpps. But, on larger slates, you can limit your stacking and really spread out for cash games and head to heads. For your upside contests in that cash lineup, consider 3man leagues or 10man leagues. Any cash lineup can beat 10 people, and you gain some upside for doing so. Smart money plays in DFS. Be smart.
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