Hello, my name is Mark Paquette but you may know me better as @dfsmlbweather or @nfldfsweather on twitter. As we get later and later in the NFL season, weather generally becomes a bigger factor. Here is a look at Sunday’s weather map from the Weather Prediction Center:
Here is the expected precipitation in the Sunday through Tuesday time period:
Obviously, being this far out the weather forecast will change. Please keep in mind that in most NFL games the weather plays little/no role. You generally need an extreme weather event (ie. torrential rainfall, very strong winds, accumulating snow) to see meaningful impacts. We don’t really give a lot of credence to weather events. The exception being when The Weather Channel sends Jim Cantore out to report live from the stadium or we see cows flying around like in the movie Twister.
Games possibly impacted: Those weather fans out there will be hearing a lot about a potential winter storm for the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions for this weekend. This storm can be seen in the 2 maps above. The game that could see snow from this storm is in Washington, where the Redskins will host the Giants. Late afternoon games in San Francisco and Oakland could see rain and wind. In our coaching channels, we will narrow down potential impacts as we get closer to the games. We keep vigilant because the minute we let our guard down, Jim Cantore shows up and tries to talk football.
Games I am Looking to Target
New Orleans @Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay is 27th in total defense at 395.4 yards given up per game, 30th at 29.6 points given up, 27th in passing yards per game given up (292.3) and 21st at rushing yards given up per game (121). New Orleans defense is not much better, especially against the pass. Though there is a concern of Mr. Brees home/road splits, I like Brees’ history against Tampa Bay and the likelihood of good weather. And Winston and the Bucs offense does not look to shabby either. An O/U of 56-57.
Cincinnati@LA Chargers: We continue to pick on Cincinnati’s poor defense. They are dead last in total yards allowed per game, points allowed per game, rushing yards per game allowed and 2nd to last in passing yards per game allowed. One of the higher O/U totals of the week at 48.
Pittsburgh@Oakland: The poor Oakland defense. Last week Kansas City, this week Pittsburgh. Oakland is giving up 30.6 points per game, 2nd worst in the NFL. They are tied for last at 153.3 rushing yards allowed per game. O/U of 51-52.
Note: Only looking at games in the main Sunday slate
Grading Last Week’s Article
A+ grade: Patrick Maholmes (33.0 DK and FD points); Phillip Lindsay ( 31.9 DK, 28.4 FD)
Failing grade: Andrew Luck (10.5 DK, 10.52 FD), Cam Newton (22.3 DK, 19.3 FD)
Week 12 DFS NFL Options by Position
Quarterbacks
Expensive – Drew Brees ($6600 DK, 8500 FD):Brees is coming off his worst game of 2018 and possibly the worst game of his career. However, he historically struggles against Dallas and the game was on the road (he has marked home/road splits in his career). Yes, he is still on the road this weekend. But he is up against a team that he torches. 1st game this season: 439 passing yards. 3 TDs. 82.2% completion percentage. 93.7 QBR. Before that game, his career against Tampa Bay was as follows: 40 games played. 48 TDS to 26 INT. 6,998 yards with a completion percentage of 67.3. Honorable mention: Phillip Rivers (6500 DK, 8300 FD). You will need a piece of the Chargers offense against the pathetic Cincinnati defense. If you need to save a few $ off of Brees, Rivers would be my choice.
Mid-range – Jameis Winston ($6200 DK, 7700 FD): There may not be a hotter QB in the NFL over the last 3 weeks than Winston. 6 TDS to only 1 pick over that stretch of games. A QBR of at least 89.2 in each game. 253.3 average passing yards per game. Now he gets a New Orleans secondary that is 30th in the NFL with 279 passing yards allowed per game. Tampa Bay is currently a 8 point home underdog and the game has an O/U of 56-57.
Cheap – Nick Mullins ($4600 DK, 6400 FD): Denver can be hurt through the air. They are 23rd in the NFL with 261 passing yards allowed per game. With 21 TDs through the air allowed, they are tied at 17th in that category. Mullins has been quietly effective the last 4 games, scoring more than 22.2 DK points twice over that period and in double digits each time. He now has a shiny new pair of toys at his disposal in Jeff Wilson Jr. and Dante Pettis (more on those 2 later). As mentioned in the weather section, this game could feature rain and wind so we may have to plan accordingly if the forecast looks dire.
Related reading: Week 14 DFS Diary
Running Backs
Expensive – Alvin Kamara ($8100 DK, 8300 FD): We return to the week 1 rematch that was written about in Drew Brees’ section. Kamara reached a whopping 46.1 DK points on 29 rushing yards (8 attempts) with 2 TDS. He gouged Tamps Bay through the air with 9 catches for 112 yards with another TD. And the damage against the Bucs is not limited to the current season. Check out these averages from last year: 56 yards per game on the ground. 84 yards per game through the air. And he scored 3 total TDs.
Mid-range – Aaron Jones ($7500 DK, 7200 FD): The 2nd most famous Aaron currently on the Packers’ roster had a disappointing game against Arizona last week. Even in this down week, Jones saw 15 total touches with 11 rush attempts and 4 targets and scored 15.2 DK points, his lowest fantasy output since week 9 in New England. Well guess what? Just what the doctor ordered comes to Wisconsin this weekend, a rematch of the 2016 NFC championship game against the Falcons. Atlanta gives up 4.9 yards per rushing attempt (25th in the NFL) and is 30th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to running backs.
Cheap – Jeff Wilson Jr. ($3800 DK, 5600 FD) and Jaylen Samuels (3700 DK, 4600 FD): Both young players get a late season looksie due to injuries. Matt Breida and James Conner are both ruled out for week 14 and Wilson and Samuels both had impressive week 13s. Samuels gets the benefit of going against an awful Raider rushing defense which gives up 5.0 yards per rushing attempt (28th in the NFL) and 153.3 rushing yards allowed per game (31st). Denver gives up 4.7 and 122.1 in those categories (21st and 23rd respectively). Poor weather could give Wilson a boost.
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Wide Receivers
Expensive – Michael Thomas ($8600DK, 8300 FD): I again harken back to week 1 against Tampa Bay for the 3rd in the trio of Saints recommended this week. Thomas had 42 DK points with 16 catches (on 17 targets) for 180 yards and a TD. In 3 career games prior to this season against the Bucs, Thomas had lines of 6 catches for 98 yards, 6 catches for 94 yards and 8 catches for 65 yards. Against the Bucs poor defense and looking to get back on track after a loss in Dallas, expect all 3 players to have big games. The trick may be fitting all of them on your rosters.
Mid-range – Keenan Allen ($7400 DK, 7900 FD): As an understatement, lets just say the past few weeks have been rough for the Bengals, especially on the defensive side of the ball. In a stretch of football played including a week 6 loss to the Steelers through now, they have given up an average of 34.4 points per game. Keenan Allen is playing his best stretch of football currently, with double digit targets in 3 of his last 5 games, including an incredible 19 last Sunday night in Pittsburgh. Look for big numbers against the 2nd worst passing defense in the league.
Cheap – Dante Pettis ($4400 DK, 5500 FD): Pettis seems to have great chemistry with Nick Mullins. Over his last 3 games, he has seen 6, 7 and 7 targets, He has produced 3 receiving TDs. His last 2 games have seen him post 77 and 129 receiving yards respectively. As mentioned under Nick Mullins, Denver’s passing defense is poor. Look for Mullins to Pettis to be said alot Sunday afternoon. Again, keep an eye on the weather here.
Related NBA Reading: 1st look FanDuel and DraftKings Advice
Tight Ends
Expensive – Travis Kelce ($6200 DK, 7500 FD): Kelce is in the midst of a terrific season. He already has 79 reception, 1082 yards and 9 TDs, numbers that almost any player in football would be proud of at the end of the year. Even better, Kelce still has 4 games to pad these stats. Baltimore is a very good defense, but one area they are mediocre at best is at defending the tight end. They are in the middle of the pack in NFL rankings with 63 receptions, 753 yards and 5 TDs given up to opposing tight ends.
Mid-range – Rob Gronkowski (4800 DK, 6200 FD): Going back to the Gronk well here (sounds like I might need a dose of penicillin after doing that). Gronk is at his best against AFC East opponents,especially the Dolphins. In 12 career games vs. Miami, Gronkowski has caught 48 of 86 targets (55.8 percent) for 732 yards (a 15.3 average) and eight touchdowns. New England is 10-2 in those games.
Cheap – Hayden Hurst (2500 DK, 4300 FD): Kansas City is the league’s worst defense defending the tight end, giving up 913 yards and 7 TDs on the season. Hayden Hurst has seen consistent targets from Lamar Jackson and Joe Flacco before him, with at least 2 targets per game since late October.
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