We will be going back to the position breakdown this week for NFL week 14 Sunday main slate.  I will be focusing on position by position break down of players I like for cash games.  GPPs are still a big part of my game, but the majority of my action will be cash games H2Hs each Sunday as we get a lot of volume and variance in NFL.

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Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers – I am not sure how popular this play will be and this is more of a DraftKings play, but given his price and playing the horrific ATL defense at home.  I think Rodgers comes out slinging it this game being the first without the departed head coach McCarthy.  The Green Bay Packers might not have a chance at the playoffs or the division (they are not going to catch my Bears!!), but it should be a statement game against a bad defense.  He is priced $200 lower than Jameis Winston on DK and $800 less than Big Ben who I both like.  If you are not going to go up to Mahomes on DraftKings in cash games, then Rodgers is going to be my guy.  Pairing him up with Davante Adams is going to give you a pretty good floor as well.

Patrick Mahomes– We have so much value on this slate that Mahomes is probably going to be my cash game QB on DraftKings as he is pretty easy to fit in.  He has not had less than 20 DK points all year long and the departure of Kareem Hunt and going up against a strong Baltimore run defense, the scoring is going to be entirely reliant on one of the best raw passers in the league.  I love pairing Mahomes up with Kelce in cash games to give you a super high floor.  I am not sure I would pay for his price on FanDuel, but if you can make it work he is going to give you such a high floor with massive upside in a perceived hard matchup.  I don’t care about matchups with this young stud on the field as he has proven all year he can put up the points.

Jameis Winston- Tampa Bay is going to need Jameis often in this matchup as their defense gives up points by the buckets.  He has looked good since taken over the QB duties from Fitzmagic a few weeks ago and he could be the highest owned QB on the slate due to his price on FanDuel.  I don’t mind playing him if paying down at the position, but with all of the cheap options we have at RB and WR, you really don’t need to go here if he scares you.  We all know the Saints are going to put points in a hurry against this sorry defense, so going back to the well on Winston in cash games on FanDuel makes sense.  I will probably be fading him as my cash game QB on DraftKings as he is not that much of savings.  Drew Brees is squarely in play, but my issues with him is the Saints can score in so many ways that it might be an Ingram or Kamara game, where Winston is going to have to throw the ball 50 times to play catchup as they do not have a rushing game.

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley–  Let me preface this by stating that Ezekiel Elliott is a great cash game play and he was actually in this spot before the Odell Beckham news came out that he was not going to play this week.  I think you are going to want 2 / 3 studs in your cash games (Barkley, Elliott, and McCaffrey).  I think Barkley is going to see a bit more of a workload with Beckham out and he has been great all year long.  I had Barkley ranked down at number 3 of the studs before this news came out and I am probably going to rank him 2nd behind McCaffrey now.  It is really close and I don’t think you can go wrong with any of these guys in cash, but you are going to definitely play two of them.

Jaylen Samuels– We really have a trio of cheap running back that are all viable in cash and GPPs.  I am only writing up Samuels as I think he is the highest owned RB on the slate as he is getting talked up massively in the industry.  The only thing that worries me about Samuels is Tomlin (PIT head coach) did talk about running a running back by committee this game with Ridley.  I think you can run Justin Jackson, Jaylen Samuels, and Jeff Wilson in cash games this week and all of them could have good weeks.  I think in GPPs I would rank them Jackson, Wilson, Samuels and in cash games, I’d rank them Samuels, Wilson, Jackson.  I think you build lineups and see where it takes you, but we have a ton of value on this slate.

Christian McCaffrey- CMac continues to put up monster numbers and his price has risen to a point that might make you feel a little uncomfortable.  There is nobody on the team to steal his snaps.  The Browns somehow are ranked 4th in pass DVOA and Newton looked bad last week against the worse defense in the league.  I think they lean on McCaffrey his game. Olsen out for the season should open up more short routes for McCaffrey out of the backfield, as Cam can’t get the broad side of a barn right now.  He is my #2 back this week behind Barkley and Elliott is #3 stud for the week.

Wide Receivers

Courtland Sutton– Emmanuel Sanders tore his Achilles in practice this week after pricing was already out.  Sutton is the defacto #1 WR in this group now and should be priced at a minimum a thousand dollars higher on all sites in this roll.  Sanders was seeing almost a 40% market share of air yards since DT was traded to Houston, so those will have to go somewhere.  Sutton is the free square for me in cash games this week with the targets he should receive and Matt LaCosse makes a decent TE play if going cheap.  Odell Beckham has been ruled out this week, so we have Sterling Shepard at $400 less this week that could be a cash game play as well or at the very least a hybrid pivot.

Juju Smith-Schuster – I think with James Conner not suiting up this week, that Big Ben is going to rely on his arm to get it done this week.  We get nice savings this week off of Antonio Brown and even though I like him, I like sliding Juju in my cash games at this price.  We have so much value to choose from that you can either look his way or go up to Davante Adams who always goes overlooked and gets all the targets.  I also like Michael Thomas as well who should shred the worst defense in the league in Tampa Bay.  I would rank them Juju, Adams, Thomas if spending up at this position.

Chris Godwin– Godwin was chalk last week and was in the article.  I am going right back to the well with him and I think you can play either Godwin or Humphries this week in cash games.  I think Godwin is going to be more popular so I would kind of lean him in cash games and maybe go Humphries in GPPs.  Tampa Bay is going to be throwing the ball early and often here against the Saints and the targets should be spread around where I would take one of these guys in cash.  Mike Evans makes a terrific GPP play with the dude he put up last week and I would look to go him in some bigger field GPPs.

Tight Ends

Eric Ebron – Ebron came through last week even at chalk with a massive 16 target / 10 reception game. He didn’t put one in the box, but those are numbers I have no problem eating when a guy is chalk.  He makes more of a FanDuel play for me than DraftKings as I would rather just go up to Kelce and that is a decision you are going to have to make.  Houston actually has a pretty decent run defense and this game shot out earlier this year.  You are going to want a piece of this game and I don’t mind hopping back on the chalk wagon with Eric Ebron.

Travis Kelce – Kelce is easily my favorite TE play on the slate if you have the money to get up to him.  He has seen massive targets this year and is priced way too cheap on DraftKings if you compare him to other plays at WR at that price.  He has seen targets of 13 and 15 the last two weeks with 23 and 32 DK points.  KC is going to have to throw the ball a ton here as I talked about with Mahomes up in the QB section.  Baltimore has a stout run defense and Hunt is no longer on the team.  Kelce should be peppered with targets all game long and would be a guy I would look at getting into your lineups.

Defense

Buffalo Bills – I am only writing up one defense as they are my favorite at home against the Jets.  Sam Darnold should be back under center and traveling to Buffalo this week.  This will not end well for him as the Bills have been pretty damn good at home all year.  I am not that excited about any defenses this week, so I will rank the ones I like here.  Bills, Chargers, Saints, Packers, Giants.  Good luck this week and I hope to see you on top of the cash hill!

 

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Keg Stands

This week in Keg Stands I don’t want to talk about a GPP approach, but more on analyzing your data you have collected over the first 6 weeks of the season to continue to build up that ROI.  I have noticed that my DK h2h matches are right around the 60% mark which is not bad, but my FD h2h win percentage is 75% with a 36% ROI as you can see below.  That tells me that I have been doing much better on FD than DK so far and I will push some of my volume on FanDuel this week as I continue to watch my win % and ROI.  You can make the best lineups in the world each week, but if you are not in the right contests and do not watch how you are doing, then you will never be as successful at DFS as you could be.  It is important to look back at your data and see where your success is and push some of your money in that direction to increase your ROI.  Please take the time to look at analyze your data and make those decisions to become a more profitable player long term.

 

ROI                                                           WIN

Before I Go…

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