We will be going back to the position breakdown this week for NFL week 13 Sunday main slate. I will be focusing on position by position break down of players I like for cash games. GPPs are still a big part of my game, but the majority of my action will be cash games H2Hs each Sunday as we get a lot of volume and variance in NFL.
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Quarterbacks
Cam Newton – This seems to get repetitive each week, but anytime the Buccaneers are on the slate just insert the opposing quarterback. Newton has a great floor with his running ability and should continue to put up good numbers with his great floor. You can stack him with Christian McCaffrey as well if you want to make sure you have access to all the touchdowns as CMac gets so much work in the passing game as well. He is my favorite cash QB this week.
Patrick Mahomes– I don’t think Mahomes will need to do too much against Oakland here, but with Kareem Hunt no longer on the team, Mahomes might take it all on his shoulders and put up 4 TDs by half which would give you a pretty high floor. We have enough value on this slate to pay up for him this week and I don’t mind going up to him over Cam or Jameis if you have the salary. I am not sure how he doesn’t put up 300 yards and 3 TDs against an Oakland team that has given up and just wants to lose games anyway. Mahomes might get to his floor by half and Ware might pound out the 2nd half to get to his floor. Mahomes is in play every week and it’s just a matter if you have the salary.
Jameis Winston- Tampa Bay is going to need Jameis often in this matchup as their defense gives up points by the buckets. He has looked good since taken over the QB duties from Fitzmagic a few weeks ago and he could be the highest owned QB on the slate due to his price. I don’t mind playing him if paying down at the position, but with all of the cheap options we have at RB and WR, you really don’t need to go here if he scares you. I really think I am leaning on spending up to Cam or Mahomes here as we have the salary and I feel much better about their respective floors than I do about Winston.
Running Backs
Spencer Ware – I am not going to go into this play much as we know Kareem Hunt has been released from the Kansas City Chiefs last night and Spencer Ware should see the balk of the carries against Oakland. He is going to be the chalk of all chalk this week, so don’t get cute here and just plug him into your cash lineups. We have seen him in this role before and has played pretty well if given carries. I can see him being in the 30 – 40% owned in GPPs and probably 60 – 70% in cash games if not more. Plug him in and move on. FREE SQUARE IN CASH GAMES!!
Carlos Hyde– This is a week to pay down at 2 RB spots as the opportunity for Ware and Hyde presents good volume presents itself. Leonard Fournette has been suspended this game and Carlos Hyde should be in line for the early down work with Yeldon probably still being the 3rd down back. He is too cheap on DraftKings and still cheap on FanDuel as well. I think you can play him on both sites but prefer him a bit more on DK than FD. Jacksonville is also starting Cody Kessler this week instead of Blake Bortles, so Hyde should get around 20 touches this week.
Christian McCaffrey- The only person that can hurt this play is Cam Newton. I can see the fade or swerve on this play up to Todd Gurley II or down to Squon Barkley in GPPs, but in cash McCaffrey is just getting a ton of usage and I don’t see Carolina getting away from it. CMac put up a 50 DK points last week and that alone will give him ownership. He is in another favorable matchup against the worse defense in the NFL, so he is hard to fade in cash games. He plays all the snaps and this game has a 56 over/under. You might want to look at playing him in your cash games for the ownership we should see and pivot off him in large field GPPs.
Wide Receivers
Adam Thielen– Stefon Diggs is carrying a Q tag headed into this matchup against New England. I think he plays here and is worth a look in GPPs, but the cash play is Adam Theilen. They are going to need him if are going to stay with New England here. If Diggs happens not to play tomorrow, then I will get off Theilen in cash games as the Pats will scheme to take him out of play and at his price I don’t think he is worth it. Keep an eye on Diggs on Sunday morning to make sure he is suiting up for this match. The Vikings need this game to keep pace with the Chicago Bears and have a shot at the division. This should be a good one.
Chris Godwin – DeSean Jackson has been ruled out and Godwin is only $3900 on DK and $5400 on FD. He is a core play at this price going up against a Carolina secondary that is getting smashed in the air with their 27th ranked pass DVOA. I know some folks might look at Adam Humpries, but I prefer Chris Godwin in cash this week. Mike Evans is still going to get his targets regardless and they are going to have to throw the ball to keep this one close. Fire up some Godwin buddy!
Emmanuel Sanders– Sanders gets a great matchup going in Cinncinati this week, as they have horrendous all year on the defensive side of the ball. I prefer his price on DK than FD, but you can make a case for him there as well. Courtland Sutton is a great pivot off of him in cash games, but Sanders should see 10+ targets in this spot against. Jeff Heuerman is also on IR so a few more targets could go Sanders way and Matt LaCosse should eat up the TE targets this week if looking for a lower owned TE play.
Tight Ends
Eric Ebron – Doyle is out and Ebron is crushing this year. There is no need to write up another TE for cash games as with Jack Doyle on IR and Mo Alli-Cox out it so hard to fade him in this spot against JAC and his ownership. This is chalk you eat and move on. He is a core play in GPPs, as well as JAC, shuts down’s the outside WRs and if they are throwing the ball then Ebron will get all the passes he can handle. An abundance of opportunity for Ebron. Just play him.
Defense
Green Bay Packers – The Packers are a 14 point favorite at home in a must-win game for them. They need to win out if they are going to have a shot at the postseason and catch my Chicago Bears. Cardinals have an ITT of sub 15 and I don’t really want any part of them. I love pairing up Aaron Jones and the Packers in GPPs and just playing the Packers D in most of my cash games. They should come out aggressive and wanting to do everything they can to win this game. Jones / Packers DST my favorite correlation RB / DST stack.
Chicago Bears – I think I will take the Bears more in GPPs than cash games, but my Chicago Bears are thirsty for a division win and Eli is not going to be able to scramble against the Monsters of The Midway front 7. They will get to him early and often if he does not get the ball out of his hands quickly. Bears are going to be one of my highest owned defenses on this slate in GPPs.
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Keg Stands
This week in Keg Stands I don’t want to talk about a GPP approach, but more on analyzing your data you have collected over the first 6 weeks of the season to continue to build up that ROI. I have noticed that my DK h2h matches are right around the 60% mark which is not bad, but my FD h2h win percentage is 75% with a 36% ROI as you can see below. That tells me that I have been doing much better on FD than DK so far and I will push some of my volume on FanDuel this week as I continue to watch my win % and ROI. You can make the best lineups in the world each week, but if you are not in the right contests and do not watch how you are doing, then you will never be as successful at DFS as you could be. It is important to look back at your data and see where your success is and push some of your money in that direction to increase your ROI. Please take the time to look at analyze your data and make those decisions to become a more profitable player long term.
ROI WIN
Before I Go…
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