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NHL Advice – Overview
Small 3 game slate tonight where we don’t have a ton of choices. On slates like these where we can spot easy chalk, my recommendation in a sport like hockey with high volatility is to fade the chalk and play gpps. Why? Chalk fails in hockey more often than almost any other sport. You gain leverage across the field when you don’t use highly owned players and they underperform…….so long as the players you do use perform well. This simple theory allows you to catapult the majority of players on leaderboards and grab some deeper money when it works out. However, it doesn’t need to work often to pay off when playing larger gpp tournaments. Even a success rate of once in one hundred times pays off when the payout is better than 100:1. It’s just math.
Pittsburgh Penguins @ Washington Capitals
Tonight we see some high scoring offenses take on some lackluster defenses clearly prioritizing goal scoring over goal suppression. The Penguins are 4th in the league offensively but 22nd defensively. And, the Capitals are tops in goals per game scored yet 27th in goals against. We have the makings of a shootout on paper. However, the gpp lover (on a short slate with limited better options) will fade this game and hope for a 2-1 final. Or, at the very least, he’ll fade the studs and stack some scrubs.
Pittsburgh has been running a tad cold, though, of late. Their players all have fewer fantasy points over their recent five game averages when compared to their forty game averages. Their shots on goal are up, showing us they are still pumping pucks on net….just not really getting due results. Your highest floor players are the usual suspects of Letang, Malkin, and Kessel. And, decent exposure to both Malkin and Crosby can easily be obtained through their lead defenseman Letang.
Washington has seen shots on goal, however, severely drop off lately. They still score at will, and your best bets at capturing some over this recent stretch are obviously Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, and John Carlson. I love running a Kuz/Oshie mini-stack when I play these guys for higher floor and cheaper exposure to Ovechkin and the offense as a whole.
Nashville Predators @ Colorado Avalanche
Another burner potentially, Nashville is a top 10 team offensively. We all know what is coming with the Avalanche. Second only to Washington in scoring, they run completely through their top line of MacKinnon, Rantanen, and Landeskog. While that’s great for cash games, this stack carries huge ownership in tournies and is the type of leverage fade I was referring to in the overview above. No one likes seeing these guys go off when we fade them, but remember, it just doesn’t have to happen often……..if the payout is there.
Our issue facing Nashville tonight is their elite defense. Nashville is league-best in preventing goals. Mack/Rant/Skog have their hands full in trying to bring your DFS team value in this matchup. It makes for a perfect fade, but no one will be shocked if these guys do their usual damage, either. Your other higher floor players, if pivoting, are Barrie, Soderberg, and Colin Wilson for Colorado and Josi, Jarnkrok, Arvidsson, Johanssen, and Subban for the visiting Predators.
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Calgary Flames @ Anaheim Ducks
Yes, we saw the Ducks last night. They are on a dreaded back to back with no rest. However, in a slate featuring four great offenses in the early games, we might be looking here for our goalies. Both are relatively cheap on Fanduel carrying price tags under $8000. And, targeting the lower scoring game on the slate and trying to pick the winner is never a bad idea with such limited options. I will very much consider running a variety of lineups out tonight with both of these goalies being used in equal amounts. I’ll get the win most likely in some, and not in others. That’s just a relatively safe way to play it in hedging my more strategic-based early plays.
Neither team stands out as having an elite style, but Anaheim does tend to keep things lower scoring. Surprisingly, you can find value here, and you can also find some hotter skaters at the moment. Not great, but again, we don’t have but 6 offenses from which to choose tonight……and we need to catch it all correctly to win anything anyway.
Calgary is giving their top players more ice time over the last week or so, their shots on goal as a unit are up, and the team appears to be running fairly well for DFS NHL purposes on paper. I have no issues playing the lower ownership game here and running Monahan, Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Giordano, or Lindholm out by themselves or in various stacking forms. Our Anaheim news revolves around what will happen going forward with Ryan Getzlaf, as he carries the highest floor on the team. Others to watch, though, are: Lindholm for floor, Silvferberg for upside, and a beautiful mini-combo of Cam Fowler and Pontus Aberg for value.
Hockey Player Pool Suggestions
Goalie – Mike Smith or Ryan Miller, equally distributed to capture a win.
Stud defensemen – Letang, Josi, Giordano, Carlson……..all have high floors, high prices, and integral access to their team’s top scoring options.
Value defensemen – Eckholm, Cole, Maata, Niskanen
Stud Wingmen – Rantanen, Landeskog, Gaudreau, Lindholm
Value Wingmen – Smith, Frolik……….slim pickens tonight, but Frolik is carrying a higher floor than a likely chalky Simon (PIT1 with Crosby).
Stud Centers – MacKinnon, Monahan
Value Centers – Johannsen, Soderberg…………..Soderberg, particularly, makes a great value pivot off the chalky top Colorado line.
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Favorite Stack – Obviously, MacKinnon/Rantanen/Landeskog. But, that doesn’t mean we must play them. Most of your opponents will tonight, and we noted Nashville is very tough defensively, and parlayed with ownership it makes sense to fade them tonight and hope they falter.
Favorite Contrarian Stack – It’s not contrarian in the sense no one will play it. It just won’t be the highest owned stack of the night. Monahan/Gaudreau/Tkachuk. Here you capture multiple scoring line exposure (something that will be a bit lower owned) and the highest production the team can offer outside Giordano………which you can easily throw in as well with a little value play from either Nashville or lower Colorado lines.
Final Recommendation
Tonight is a short slate. Get funky. You are going to need that weird, random dude that had the game of his life to win gpps. Someone will have him. And, with such limited options, there is just no real telling where he’s coming from. It might be a chalky MacKinnon. It might be a 3rd liner from Anaheim. But, own him tonight, and you cash easily. Try to find him, and don’t be afraid to run multiple iterations around a couple of cores you like as well. Take some chalk. Fade some chalk. But, most importantly, think things through. Don’t just randomly toss stacks out there and take a little of this and a little of that. Target specific statistics, recency, splits, or even fantasy production. Have a plan.
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