Welcome to NFL DFS #TheWishbone! Some of you might not even know what a wishbone is, and I’m about to date myself here. The Wishbone, before passing became so prolific, was perhaps the most powerful running formation in all of football. I’m talking before Tecmo Bowl and face masks. The beauty of the wishbone formation, and this article series, is you knew what you were getting. It was going to be announced as fundamentally sound and maybe a bit chalky. But, you were still going to have to stop it………..and that was the problem, most couldn’t. I write the same way. Here it is big boy, come and get it!
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Remember, this article is designed to get you pointed in the right direction. It’s not a thorough NFL slate write-up and it’s not a player picks piece. I would rather get you started, then have you interact with us in our VIP slack forums as we banter picks and strategies back and forth. Learning NFL the right way is the fastest way to grow your skill level. Certainly, follow me for “process” or validation. But, we are going to disagree….and that’s perfectly fine. You only need to know WHY you disagree with me, and you need to be able to trust your own gut and think for yourself. That is the only way you will truly be a great DFS NFL player.
Week 9 NFL Vegas Odds Table
We can talk about a lot of things, but when it comes to the NFL, I like keeping things simple at first. Implied columns are the individual team’s implied total. The favorite is obviously the favored team in Vegas. The underdog is obviously the underdog. And, the spread is the point differential Vegas feels the final score will display. We use all of these parameters to predict game scripts and prioritize the games we plan to attack for the upcoming week.
NFL DFS Week 9 “Top 3s”
I’m not going to break down every game and every playable player for you. I will, however, give you MY favorites. My favorite games, NFL players at each position, and gpp plays. I’m going to keep it rather short, though. I’m curating my own content and research, and I expect you to do the same. And, I’m absolutely honored, you consider me one of your curated sources and trusted weekly opinions. I love listening to our podcast page, both free and VIP-only. I also use our Research Station very heavily all year long (tutorial here).
Top 3 NFL Games to Target
TBB @ CAR – Do you hear air raid sirens? You might only think you hear them being no one thinks of CAR as some crazy passing offense. However, we all know how to attack Tampa’s league-worst secondary….through the air. Tampa should respond in kind because the Panthers secondary isn’t great, either. They are ranked 26th in DVOA on the year. We know Tampa Bay doesn’t really run well, but Carolina does….ranked 3rd (2nd in yards per carry). So, this one will be a question of how much balance the Panthers want to put on Cam’s sometimes erratic arm. With a clear path to what we’d think, but enough questions to what might actually happen, I’m intrigued to watch this for both my fandom and DFS purposes.
LAR @ NOS – Duh. I can likely leave it alone right here. If this game holds in Vegas, I believe I read it’s the first 60 point total in history at the sportsbooks. I expect the overall game of football to keep trending this way, and in a few years we might laugh at a 60 point total with the “remember when we had 40 point totals?” attitude. But, until then, fire up weapons in this obvious shootout. Todd Gurley is matchup proof, but the Saints do defend the run well forcing you to throw. With the Rams ranking 3rd in passing DVOA (1st in yards per pass), they really strike in a lot of ways. The offense runs through Gurley, so again, this will be interesting to watch from both a fan and DFS perspective. We know Drew Brees can handle shootouts. We’ll see what Goff is made of should one develop.
With 5 games carrying a Vegas total over 50 this week, we can keep going. KC @ CLE, GBP @ NEP, and DET @ MIN all have their merits as games to key on for fantasy.
Top 3 Quarterbacks
There are a LOT of quarterbacks in play weekly. However, I try to trim things down at every position. Many playable QBs (and any position, honestly) won’t make my list. I focus heavily on home teams, favorites, and teams implied to score a lot of points. These situations, historically, have the highest odds at returning value. I’m a cash-centric player that never sees the point of unnecessary risk. Unless otherwise stated, these players are going to be on my cash game short lists.
Cam Newton – I think everyone is on him, but it’s for good reason. His rushing upside allows him to win any week, which serves to lock in a solid floor. Add in a matchup vs the league’s worst secondary and a 50+ point total from Vegas and we have a spot in which Cam should be testing his upside very frequently here. He carries our #1 Rocket Arm rating of 19.7 (3 points clear of the next QB) and even though he’s priced up, he is still a bigger bargain on Fanduel than Draftkings. Probably a core build in cash games with upside to win GPPs.
Kirk Cousins – The Lions pass defense is ranked 28th in DVOA and 29th in yards allowed per pass. This is a spot you might fire up both Thielen and Diggs in cash games and feel safe. Cousins has not been the most efficient in terms of QBR ranking 11th, but this is a matchup I don’t want to miss in gpps due to his upside of 30+ points and the correlation with his 2 big guns.
Drew Brees – If this game with the Rams is going in the Saints’ favor, it’s likely due to Brees having a big game. Cam Newton is my cash QB this week, but these other two are mentioned due to their enormous upside for the matchups they draw in Week 9. The Rams are going to eventually force Brees to the air, and if it’s early enough in the game, we know Drew is no stranger to shootouts. The question then becomes, can Jared Goff outduel the veteran?
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Top 3 Running Backs
Kareem Hunt – Priced way up now, I’m not sure there is a lot of meat left on the bone here. But, there is a solid floor. The Browns are more of a “reverse funnel” in that their pass defense is strong enough to force you into running where they rank a fairly soft 25th in DVOA. Hunt doesn’t have a lot of competition for touches, and we see his dynamic big play ability nearly weekly when he receives volume. If we are focused on players that have a floor and a matchup to test their upside, Hunt leads the charge this week being a heavy favorite in a projected high scoring game and getting over two thirds the goal line carries along with 8 red zone targets on the year. He also carries our highest Truck Stick rating with a 20.8 according to our Research Station.
Christian McCaffrey – Another huge Truck Stick rating gives us some security in CMC this week. He actually makes an intriguing pairing with Cam Newton to soak up more of the offensive production in a fairly high scoring game. He is priced well down on Fanduel when compared to Draftkings and brings a 6-8 target floor with him making him relatively game script proof.
Latavius Murray – The hope is Dalvin Cook sits through the bye week and we get another week with Lats Murray and all the run. We can take advantage of what is still a slight pricing mismatch on the DFS sites. Murray is the 10th priced back with the 4th highest rating on our Research Station. The matchup is also strong with DET ranking 30th in DVOA. When looking for value, we might need a $6000ish RB to make things fit and grab some higher floor receivers or tight ends.
Top 3 Wide Receivers
Robert Woods – I haven’t played with building lineups just yet, but I’m going to want large pieces of the Rams/Saints game. Robert Woods might be my access to Jared Goff if I opt for Cam Newton instead. 7-10 targets each week gives us a nice floor of around 10-12 points. We only need to find the endzone in order to reach our upside of 18+ points with this play. If Cooper Kupp is still out this week, I will like Woods even stronger and fit him in where I can if I can’t get to Adam Thielen.
Devin Funchess – Yes, Greg Olsen is back, but Funchess is still getting looks averaging 7.1 per game. When facing the league’s worst secondary (have I mentioned that yet?), we want pieces…..and a lot of them. We also want value anywhere we can find it, and we get it here at $6400 on Fanduel. He is only slightly more on Draftkings at $5600. Funchess carries our 2nd highest Sticky Hands rating of 18.5 on the week in this beyond juicy matchup.
Courtland Sutton – Of course, if we are looking for value, we might turn to DEN now that Demaryius Thomas has been shipped. We finally see the role Sutton was drafted to assume. No pricing adjusted and we get this WR2 gamble at $5500…..affording us decent expectations and the ability to secure workload elsewhere in our lineups.
Top 3 Tight Ends
Greg Olsen – I’m sensing a Carolina theme tonight. At $6200 on Fanduel, I really won’t be looking anywhere else at TE, either. I’m stacking with Cam and I might include Funchess or CMC. Olsen is Cam’s second favorite red zone target (first being himself, of course). And, while we are all focused on the secondary of Tampa Bay, we need not look hard to see they give up the most points to the TE position as well….a whopping 15 per game. There is a very high likelihood Olsen falls in the endzone twice this week. I will gladly set up my lawn chair and wait to catch him both times.
Travis Kelce – In the interest of “top 3s” I suppose I need to think of 2 more, but I’d be lying to you if I sold them too hard. Kelce has a high catch floor and a solid matchup, but he’s just priced so high he costs me many other options I’m not willing to sacrifice. He’s a nice tourney pivot, but I don’t see myself using him in cash games.
George Kittle – Kittles and Bits will receive some consideration from me, but again, I’m not likely moving off Olsen. He is the safest option wearing a 49er uniform and has shown incredible YAC (Yards After the Catch) this season for a TE. But, I don’t much like that game and would keep him to tourney territory, too.
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Top 3 NFL Defenses
Chicago Bears – Safest play, and chalkiest, on the board. I mean who’s facing Buffalo……these guys. They are expensive, but they apparently draw Pick 6 Peterman, so how can you go wrong?
Dallas Cowboys – Tennessee is also rather turnover prone, and waiting in the wings is Dallas. A nice pass rush floor to create havoc or scoop sacks, they aren’t a terrible spot if you need a smidge more cap space.
Kansas City Chiefs – Funny these guys keep popping in here, but they are aggressive. And, being 7.5 point road favorites ranking horribly in every defensive DVOA category, no one sees them. Baker Mayfield has not been efficient, he is going to need to throw the ball, and while KC may give up points, they may also wreck the slate with turnovers and touchdowns. Paired with Kareem Hunt, this combo can legitimately win you a large field tournament this week.
Remember, my Top 3 GPP picks are yet to come….keep reading!
KBiggz joined our VIP program the morning he made this lineup. He simply latched onto Geek’s NFL Picks and watched the discussions in our coaching channels. From there, he was able to assemble this miraculous lineup that was less than a point away from dragging the full million. We have winners using our content, tools and coaching every week to become better players.
Top 3 GPP Plays
Jared Goff – I kind of gave quite a few tourney plays along the way this week, so I hope you don’t mind if I keep these a little brief. Goff is in a shootout and with the Saints defending the run well, he might be forced to the air. He’s a borderline cash QB for me this week, but I thought I’d save him for down here and see who reads this far down….
Joe Flacco – Another with the ability to win the week at random times. We know Pittsburgh isn’t great, but Flacco has performed against them historically. No one will be on him and he’s cheap. Strictly a deeper tourney play, obviously, but it won’t shock me to see him put up his best game of the year.
Chris Thompson – Pass catching backs vs Atlanta. Not currently practicing, which will keep his ownership very low, but he did play last week. I’m hearing people whisper Alex Smith this week and I know if Alex does squat for you, Thompson will be involved. Let me say it again…………..pass catching backs vs Atlanta.
NFL DFS Week 9 Breakdown Video – A Hyper-Simple Method to Narrow Your Player Pool
But, We’re Not Done!
I am a better cash player than GPP player; therefore, you can easily use my chalk plays to find similar, but lower owned, plays for yourself. And, you can also use me to help you learn the fundamentals if you are just starting out. The cash players are often highly owned. They are highly owned for a reason…they are in the best spots, the obvious spots. When you graduate from my school of the obvious, you are ready to ask The Geek, Donuts, Keg, Puggle, DFSUpNorth, BigMarley, and our other staff members for their opinions on more sophisticated endeavors. But, you can only do so as a VIP. Our individual and group coaching channels are where the magic happens, and it’s where our 20+ coaches live!!
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ALL OUR WEEK 9 CONTENT (Huge List!! Updated Daily!)
Domination Station Tutorial – Take 45 min to learn how to use the most customizable optimizer in the industry.
Research Station Tutorial – Take 45 min to learn every facet of our primary research tool!
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