Hello, my name is Mark Paquette but you may know me better as @dfsmlbweather or @nfldfsweather on twitter. As we get later and later in the NFL season, weather generally becomes a bigger factor. With that in mind, let’s look at Sunday’s weather map:
GB looks like a trouble spot. Here is a zoomed-in image of the Wisconsin area:
Please keep in mind that in most NFL games the weather plays little/no role. You generally need an extreme weather event (ie. torrential rainfall, very strong winds, accumulating snow) to see meaningful impacts. We don’t really give a lot of credence to weather events. The exception being when The Weather Channel sends Jim Cantore out to report live from the stadium or we see cows flying around like in the movie Twister.
Game possibly impacted: ARI@GB looks to be a game with potential impacts. On a 1 through 4 scale with 1 being little/no impacts and 4 being extreme impacts, this game is a 2, maybe a 3. Temperatures will be in the 32-35 range with a mix of rain and snow. It will become all snow. 1-2 inches look to fall during the game. Winds will be around 20 mph. In our coaching channel, I will try to narrow down impacts on Sunday morning.
Games I am Looking to Target
Denver at Cincinnati: Cincinnati’s defense stinks. They are dead last in overall defense and 2nd to last in both passing and rushing defense. They have given up the 2nd most passing TDs at 25 and the 3rd most rushing TDs with 14. What could be scarier than those stats is the appearance of them giving up on the season. In 4 of their last 5 games, the Bengals have given up at least 35 points. Denver is not a powerhouse offense but have been quietly effective on the road as of late, scoring 23, 23 and 45 points respectively in their last 3 games. An O/U of 42.
L.A. Rams at Detroit: Playing indoors, so the weather is not a concern. Detroit is 13th in overall defense, 13th in passing defense and 19th rushing defense but are playing an explosive offense in the Rams, who are averaging 35.4 points per game. An O/U of 55.
Kansas City at Oakland: One of the higher O/U totals of the week at 56. Oakland is 26th in total defense, including 15th in passing yards allowed and dead last in rushing yards allowed per game. At home, the Raiders have given up 33, 42, 27, 42 and 20 points but they haven’t faced an opponent who is averaging 36.7 points per game.
Carolina at Tampa Bay: Neither defense is great…the TB secondary is a dumpster fire and Carolina’s is not much better. O/U of 56.
Grading Last Week’s Article
A+ grade: Baker Mayfield (25.9 DK points, 25.92 FD points); Andrew Luck ( 28.6 DK, 25.12 FD), Nick Chubb (27.8 DK, 26.3 FD)
Failing grade: Ed Dickson (3.3 DK, 2.3 FD), Odell Beckham Jr. (13.5 DK, 11 FD)
Week 13 DFS NFL Options by Position
Quarterbacks
Expensive – Patrick Maholmes ($7600 DK, 9500 FD): Though Oakland’s passing defense is middle of the pack when judged at yards allowed per game, they are tied for 2nd most passing TDs allowed at 25. With Maholmes having a MVP caliber season with 37 passing TDs and an overall QBR of 82.5 (2nd only to Drew Brees’ 87.3), we can expect a floor of 2 passing TDs with a ceiling of 5 or 6 passing TDs. The Chiefs need to keep the pedal to the metal with the Patriots only 1 game behind them for the #1 seed in the AFC (and the Pats owning the tie breaker with a head to head win vs. KC). With the news about Kareem Hunt, the offense will likely go through Maholmes’ strong right arm even more.
Mid-range – Cam Newton ($6600 DK, 8700 FD): Though a stretch to call Newton mid-range, I decided to fudge my designations and include the 2nd highest QB on both sites here. As can be guessed with the #1 and #2 QBs highlighted in the Sunday main slate, this week is looking like one to spend up on QBs and go cheap elsewhere. As mentioned above, TB’s secondary is not good, giving up the most receiving TDs in the NFL at 26. In week 8, Newton put up a total of 280 all-purpose yards and 2 TDs vs the Buccaneers. The Panthers scored 42 points in that game, their high for the season. Losers of 3 straight games but still very much alive in the NFC playoff picture, this is a must-win game for the Panthers.
Honorable mention: Andrew Luck ($5800 DK, 8200 FD): In Luck’s last 8 games, he has thrown for a minimum of 3 TDs in each game with 4 TDs 3 times. The likely comeback player of the year and a new-comer to the MVP race, he now goes up against a Jacksonville team in full chaos. The coach is likely to be fired, the QB likely gone and Jalen Ramsey’s mouth should of been shut long ago. Jacksonville has given up 20 or more points in 8 consecutive games including 30 or more points 3 times.
Cheap – Case Keenum ($5200 DK, 6900 FD): Cincinnati is 31st in the NFL with 292 yards per game through the air and tied for 2nd to worst with 25 passing TDs given up. They have given up a NFL worst DK points allowed to opposing QBs according to the DFS Army’s research station. Denver is suddenly relevant in the AFC playoff race and has scored 23 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games. The current O/U in this game is 42 with Denver being a 3.5-point favorite.
Running Backs
Expensive – Saquon Barkley ($7900 DK, 8600 FD): There are few hotter players than the rookie sensation Saquon Barkley. His last 3 home games have seem him score 40.9, 20.1 and 38.2 DK fantasy points. Though Chicago’s rush defense is stout, they just gave up 88 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs to LaGarrette Blount on Thanksgiving Day. Against other quality running backs (not that Blount is elite), Sony Michel was in the middle of a very good game before he was injured (and James White rushed for 40 additional yards), the tandem of Frank Gore and Kenyan Drake combined for 195 all-purpose yards and David Johnson had over 60 all-purpse yards with a TD. All-in-all, Chicago’s impressive rushing defense really hasn’t gone against an elite RB like Barkley and their numbers are likely artificially inflated.
Mid-range – Phillip Lindsay ($5400DK, 7000 FD): Death, taxes and picking on Cincinnati’s rush defense are things we can count on in life. The undrafted rookie is coming on strong, with 20 or more DK fantasy points in 3 of his past 4 games. He has scored at least 1 rushing touchdown in 4 of his past 5 games. He now goes against the team with arguably the worst rushing defense in the league.
Cheap – Gus Edwards ($4800 DK, 6400 FD): This play is dependent on Alex Collins’ health. Or maybe not?? The Ravens, much like they might do with their QB, could play the hot hand that has led them to consecutive victories. Thus veterans Joe Flacco and Alex Collins could find themselves watching from the sidelines even if they are healthy. Baltimore heads to Mercedes-Benz stadium in Atlanta and the friendly rush defense of the Falcons, which gives up a league high 5.1 yards per carry. Note: Edwards appeared on the Ravens’ injury report on Thursday.
With Friday’s horrific news about Kareem Hunt’s actions, let’s move Spencer Ware ($4000 DK, 5200 FD) into this article. The Raiders defense gives up the most rushing yards (151.4) allowed per game. Someone needs to get Hunt’s carries. With the Chiefs expected to get a big lead, game flow may determine the Ware gets plenty of useage.
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Wide Receivers
Expensive – Tyreek Hill (9100 DK, 8400 FD): Hill is tied for the league lead with 11 receiving TDs and is 3rd with 1106 receiving yards. See Patrick Maholmes writeup for a bit about Oakland’s defense.
Mid-range – Brandin Cooks ($7000 DK, 7800 FD): Relatively quietly, Cooks has had a terrific season in LA. Over his last 4 games he has averaged 10 targets per game. If he continues to get this type of attention from Jared Goff, we can expect his streak of 20+ DK points to be extended to 4 games.
Cheap – D.J. Moore ($5600DK, 6400 FD): Moore has topped 90 receiving yards in consecutive games and 3 out of his past 5 games. Moore only had 2 targets earlier this season when these teams matched up but has seen his role in Carolina’s offense increase since then.
Related Reading: The DFS Diary
Tight Ends
Expensive – Rob Gronkowski (5400 DK, 6700 FD): Minnesota is an above average defense but one position they can be hurt with is the tight end. They have given up 546 yards with 3 TDs on the season to that position. Gronk looked healthy after missing nearly a month due to injuries and a bye week. Gronk’s splits favor games at home and against non-division foes. Note: Gronk’s name was on the Patriots’ injury report released Thursday.
Mid-range – Greg Olsen (4100 DK, 6000 FD): Tampa Bay is bad at defending the tight end. It is that simple. They are giving up a 67.9 yards per game to tight ends with 5 TDs so far this season. Olsen had 9 catches for 181 yards in an October 2016 game vs the Buccaneers.
Cheap – Cameron Brate (3700 DK, 4900 FD): Brate is now the unquestioned #1 tight end in Tampa Bay with O.J. Howard injured. Brate has 4 TDs on the year and 3 of them have been in games that Jameis Winston has started. The Panthers have given up a league high 9 TDs to opposing tight ends and the 5th most yards at 678.
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