Welcome to the DFS Army NBA Free Squares article where I will try to break down my favorite NBA Free Squares and Fanduel and Draftkings for Today’s NBA Slate.
So what is a Free Square exactly? In NBA DFS there will be situations that come up that will lead to bench players getting more minutes. Some may even enter the starting lineup. These players will often be priced as backups (their normal role). The increase in their minutes and role will give us someone we can plug into our lineups and expect them to reach or exceed value. The low cost of these players will allow us to spend up across the rest of our lineups. Wich gives us the ability to lock in some high dollar studs.
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My Favorite NBA Free Squares for Today – November 15th
💥 Monte Morris – DEN – SG – $5,200
Morris has been the guy who has really stepped up this year in the absence of Will Barton. He’s been playing well all year and especially well over his last 3 games. In his last 3 games he’s averaging 27 minutes per game and 27.7 fantasy points. Today he gets a dreamy matchup against the Atlanta Hawks who rank 30th vs point guards in our our Adjusted DVP Metric on the NBA Research Station. The Hawks also play at a much faster pace than the Nuggets, 99.6 to 108.4 which is a +8.8 pace up spot here for the Nuggets. The matchup and pace upgrade along with his steady play of late makes Morris one of my favorite mid salary plays on tonight’s small 3 game slate.
💥 Kevin Durant – GSW – SF – $11,800
Nothing really groundbreaking here, Kevin Durant has a usage rate of nearly 40% this year without Steph Curry. Sure he’s the most expensive player on the board and will be chalky but on the 3 game slate you should probably start your builds with him tonight. He has scored 48.60, 63.30 and 45.70 fantasy points in his last 3 games. He may not get all the way to 5x value but its hard to fade a 45 point floor on a 3 game slate. Plug and play Durant tonight and don’t look back.
Tourney pivot? James Harden he is $100 cheaper with just as much upside and maybe 1/2 the ownership. He has scored 51.80, 54.90 and 59.80 in his last 3 games and should reach 50 tonght again vs the Wariors. Everyone will be heavily owned on a 3 game slate but if you can gain a little ownership edge I think you go with Harden in tourneys over Durant.
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💥 PJ Tucker – HOU – FF – $4,800
Over his last 3 games he’s averaged 39.7 minutes and nearly 20 fantasy points per game. Sure we’d like to see more fantasy production out of him given that many minutes but on a small 3 game slate like tonight he should be a solid value piece to help us fit some other studs. The matchup against the Warriors is a solid pace up matchup for him tonight and our Sim Model has him reaching 5x value about 30% of the time tonight. He’s not sexy at all but he shouldn’t kill you tonight.
💥 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – LAC – PG – $6,000
He’s on a hot streak right now, over his last 3 games he’s averaging 17 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists per game. He’s playing over 35 minutes per game in that span as well. The Spurs are just about league average against point guards this year, ranking 14th in our Adjusted DVP metric. Alexander may not have a ton of upside, as the Sim Model has him projected to score around 25-30 points tonight but he’s been steady lately and should be solid again tonight.
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💥 AND 1 Top 3’s today
The AND 1 rating was developed by Ben Jammin @xBenJamminx and is apart of our NBA Research Station.It is an all encompassing metric that will lead you to the best plays on each slate each day.
Nikola Jokic owns the #1 AND1 rating tonight in his matchup against the Hawks with a 23.6 AND1 Rating. Check out the Rest of the Top 3 at each position below. Build your lineups around these guys this evening.
PG – Chris Paul, Jamal Murray, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
SG – James Harden, Eric Gordon, DeMar DeRozan
SF – Gary Harris, Kevin Durant, Danilo Gallinari
PF – Paul Millsap, LaMarcus Aldridge, Trey Lyles
C – Nikola Jokic, Clint Capela, Mason Plumlee
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