Flynnie’s Forecheck for 11/15/18
We’re back!! After a long off-season of watching the greatest love story since Romeo and Juliet – obviously, I’m talking about Alex Ovechkin’s love affair with the Stanley Cup – it’s time to play some hockey. For those of you that are new to the DFS Army, my name is Rob Flynn. I’m an NHL DFS writer and coach inside the DFS Army. We have the best articles, coaching and tools in the industry. But let me tell you, the real money is made in the Slack chat that only our VIP’s have access to. That’s where we talk through a member’s lineup construction, thought process or just answer any DFS questions they may have. Every coach is very accessible and willing to share our own processes to help every member grow as a player.
I wrote an article describing some of my process and some tips to win. Check it out here. We also have a brand new Research station that is only available to VIP’s but here is the tutorial, to give you guys a taste of what’s coming this season. When you sign up to become a member, use promo code PUCK to give yourself 10% off for the life of your membership.
NHL DFS is very similar to DFS MLB. The volatility can be maddening, the floor of every player is ZERO and you need stacking in all contests. In cash games you need at least two players that correlate on either the scoring line or power play, to hopefully grab the goal and an assist. In GPP’s you need to stack up the entire line and hope that line goes off for multiple goals.
Without any further ado let’s dig into today’s 9-game slate.
I am primarily a cash/hybrid player but even that requires some stacking. So, I list my favorite and then I take the pieces from those stacks that fit my lineup construction. Unlike last season, I will put my stacks, D-men and goalies in order of my preference.
FORWARDS
MTL 2 – Drouin, Domi, Shaw – Domi is on an unbelievable tear right now and they get the joy of playing against Mike Smith. I have no idea why Vegas is so high on CGY tonight. Sure, they can score but they have gone cold and MTL is heating up. I’m okay with leaving Shaw off this stack and running the other two in cash/hybrids, but it is hard to argue against his recent production.
Min 1 – Staal, Granlund, Zucker – They are the second hottest line over the last three games with 4 goals. The hottest is MTL 2 with 5. They are heavy home favorites going against the Canucks backup goalie and should look to bounce back after letting me down the other night against Washington. One thing to keep an eye on is Zach Parise is questionable tonight, so monitor or chat for possible line changes.
OTT 1 – White, Tkachuk, Stone – I am expecting a lot of scoring in this game and these guys are the most likely to provide the scoring on the Senators side. Colin White is questionable but he’s one of the best value plays on the slate if he goes. Tkachuk is also way too cheap. I love mixing and matching this line with Duchene and/or Chabot in GPP’s tonight
Honorable Mention: PIT PP1, TB PP1, ARI 1 (GPP only), FLA 1 (Hoffman cash viable), DET 2, SJ 1/2
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DEFENSE
Chabot – Just play the man! He has an unreal floor, sky high ceiling especially in a game our model LOVES way more than Vegas does.
Rielly – Very consistent and one of the best scoring defensemen in the league. He has a chance to very overlooked tonight with Letang, Hedman, Josi, and Karlsson all right there in his price range.
Dumba – I can’t figure out why his price won’t go up, but I will keep playing him until I can’t. He is always involved in the offense and I believe his floor is higher than normal tonight due to the blocked shot potential.
Honorable Mentions: Jones, Josi, Burns, McDonagh, Hedman, OEL. Giordano
Our long-time VIP Joker Wins took down a GPP and had two other top-10 finishes
GOALIES
Goalie is tough tonight, I generally like to use home favorites but that is going to change a bit for tonight. My list is going to have everyone very close, this is my order for now but watch the #nhl-new-and-notes channel for any updates throughout the day.
Dubnyk – He should be the chalk (as chalky as a goalie can be on a slate this size). Minnesota has been hot and playing excellent defense – last game against WSH not withstanding. However VAN is scoring in bunches and shooting the puck a ton. I trust the Wild defense to limit some of the damage and Dubnyk has a very high ceiling if he faces as many shots as it looks like he will. He has not showed a slate breaking ceiling yet on the season, though. He has showed a very consistent 25-30 FD points.
Greiss – He is a home favorite and facing a hot Rangers team (haven’t lost in two weeks). He has been one of the more consistent goalies lately, especially over his last five starts. Before that he was prone to the occasional blow up. He is probably GPP only but viable in cash/hybrid too.
Andersen – Here is where numbers vs Vegas starts to derail. He is a road dog and I love him tonight. TOR has actually showed some ability to play defense with Matthews out. Andersen has showed an unreal consistency lately of 30-35 points with the potential for more. He has shaken off the early season rust and has posted a 1.50 GAA over his last 10 starts. He’s only 6-4-0 over that time, so even in losses he is not giving up much.
Honorable Mention: Rinne, Luongo, Bobrovsky (a distant 6th in my rankings but our model loves him)
GOAL PREDICTION: Max Domi
Remember guys, always confirm the starters after morning skate.
I generally have this article out in the morning. If you guys have any questions reach out to me on Twitter or in Slack. Join the DFS Army today by using Promo Code PUCK to save 10% off your membership for life.
