We will be going back to the position breakdown this week for NFL week 9 Sunday main slate. I will be focusing on position by position break down of players I like for cash games. GPPs are still a big part of my game, but the majority of my action will be cash games H2Hs each Sunday as we get a lot of volume and variance in NFL.
Sorry, this is out late this week, but I have been battling what I thought was a cold but just found out its strep. Let’s get to the picks!
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Quarterbacks
Cam Newton – This is nothing new. Are the Bucs playing this slate? If yes, then play the opposing QB and count your cash. This will not change this week with the Carolina Panthers hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this weekend. Newton will be the chalk QB this weekend and should be your cash QB on all sites. He will be very highly owned, but this is good chalk IMO. I will eat every bit of this chalk and enjoy it. They have a 30.5 ITT on Sunday and Cam loves to take McCaffreys TDs in the red zone or at the goal line, so I do not see how Cam does not have at least 3 of the 4 TDs in their implied team total. McCaffrey is also in play though as Bucs are 29th DVOA against pass catching RBs. That defense is just so bad, so please don’t over think this and get him in your lineup.
Drew Brees – This game should have a ton of fireworks on hand on Sunday with a game total of 60 with a 2 point spread with the Saints favored. Brees is my favorite pivot off of Cam in GPPs as you are going to want a piece of this game. If you are heading into the late games on Sunday and you don’t have a piece of this game you might be going backward with your winnings. Ingram has been more involved since being back because they have been up, but I think this game is close enough and the Rams are going to be putting up points. Brees is going to be slinging the rock in the Mercedes Dome on Sunday and could have a massive day. Any of the 3 QBs I am listing are cash viable, I just always prefer to stream the QB against the worst D in the league with Newton.
Jared Goff – The Saints are ranked 2nd DVOA against the run, but can they really stop Todd Gurley? I never tend to play Goff in cash games, because I am so worried Gurley is going to get all the TDs. He is my least favorite of the bunch, but if they make an effort to stop Gurley on Sunday, then Goff could go off for 5 TD passes here as they have the firepower everywhere. Goff also gets back his trusted WR Cooper Kupp if he is cleared to play and no snap limit. I think you leave Goff for more GPPs on Sunday and focus on eating the Newton chalk for h2h and 50/50s and Brees for your ladders and single entry.
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey – CMC gets the likes of the Tampa Bucs defense this week and every offensive player is in play here. I kind of like stacking CMC up with Newton in cash, as it will let you get access to all the touchdowns. It is so hard to pay $11,200 on FanDuel for Gurley this week in cash games as I don’t think you need to go there. It is much easier to fit him in on DraftKings and Fantasy Draft this week in cash that I would do that. McCaffrey is in play on all sites in cash and you can easily fit him in.
Alvin Kamara – I am a bit nervous recommending Kamara in this spot with Ingram back, but his price has come down to a point where I think he is playable and I want a piece of this game. He should also benefit if they get down and have to pass as Ingram was more heavily used in games they were up the last few weeks. Kamara can do it all and I just have a gut feeling that he puts up a strong game against the Rams catching some balls out of the backfield and taking one to the house.
Kareem Hunt – The Browns are allowing 139 yards per game on the ground and Hunt could get a massive workload if they get up early in this game. The Browns have also allowed a league-leading 12 rushing touchdowns. I have never been a big Hunt fan this year, as Patrick Mahomes has clearly taken over as the DFS stud on the team, but his production has been up as late and this is a great spot for them to utilize their running back. It is really hard to get up to Gurley on FD, so I will be using Hunt a lot on DK and FD. Gurley is much easier to fit in on Fantasy Draft.
Wide Receivers
Courtland Sutton – This is another spot where you are going to have to make the decision to eat the chalk as I can see him being 30 – 40% owned with Demaryius Thomas shipped off. He has shown off his talent all year, but now he is the clear #2 WR on the Broncos and that should mean more targets. He is too cheap for the volume he should receive here and I will eat this chalk in cash. I think a great pivot off him in GPPs is Tre’Quan Smith for the Saints. He will have 1/4 of the ownership and it gets you a nice piece of the highest o/u game of the day.
Cooper Kupp – If he is healthy and good to go Sunday, he is by far my favorite WR on the slate at his price. Goff loves to target Kupp and his price is too cheap around the industry. We really just need to keep watching the news and make sure he is playing this weekend. He is also seeing 22% of the team’s reception TDs. If he is healthy then just plug him in. He should be around 30% owned on FanDuel.
Kenny Golladay– This is another cheap guy that benefited from the trade deadline this week. Detroit shipped out Golden Tate to PHI, so Golladay should see more work. He was arguably the most talented WR on this team even when Tate was here, but he should see even more targets in a game where they should be trailing against MIN. We could see a 7 – 8 target game as a floor here with the upside of double-digit targets. The GPP play with him is to go his running mate Marvin Jones if you think he gets shut down in this spot, but Golladay is a great talent and I don’t see this happening. As an honorable mention to the group, DJ Moore is too cheap on FanDuel this week as well as Fantasy Draft and is in cash consideration as well against the awful Bucs defense.
Tight Ends
David Njoku – I was all ready to write up OJ Howard this week in this spot, but FitzMagic is back and he tends to like to throw to his WRs over his TEs. I am not saying Howard is not in play here, I just prefer to go Njoku where he should be a bit of a safer play and still too cheap on all sites. Reed is another TE that is in a similar price point that I would look to if you are not loving Njoku, but Njoku should see plenty of targets and opportunity with KC putting up points at will on Sunday.
Travis Kelce – If you are paying up for TE or have the salary for this is a no-brainer. There is not a more consistent TE on the slate and is consistently putting up double-digit fantasy points. I don’t see him being used for me on FD or DK due to wanting to pay up for RBs, but on Fantasy Draft you can easily fit him in and he really gives you that floor you are looking for. He is seeing 22% of the Kansas City touchdown reception share and 25% of the reception yards, and 25% of the reception targets. He is the clear cut #1 TE on the slate.
Defense
Denver Broncos – They are going to be your chalk cheap defense of the week going up against Houston. This defense plays much better at home and they are cheap enough to let you fit in your studs at other positions. It is a close spread here and has a 7.35% sack percentage for the year. If paying down this is your chalk D for the week.
Chicago Bears – The Monsters of the Midway are headed to Buffalo this Sunday and if you are paying up it doesn’t get much better than the Bears. They are 10 point favorites and should be put into the position to be allowed to pin their ears back and get after the QB. That tends to lend itself to turnovers and defensive touchdown opportunities. That is all we can hope for in a defense is the opportunity to score points.
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Keg Stands
This week in Keg Stands I don’t want to talk about a GPP approach, but more on analyzing your data you have collected over the first 6 weeks of the season to continue to build up that ROI. I have noticed that my DK h2h matches are right around the 60% mark which is not bad, but my FD h2h win percentage is 75% with a 36% ROI as you can see below. That tells me that I have been doing much better on FD than DK so far and I will push some of my volume on FanDuel this week as I continue to watch my win % and ROI. You can make the best lineups in the world each week, but if you are not in the right contests and do not watch how you are doing, then you will never be as successful at DFS as you could be. It is important to look back at your data and see where your success is and push some of your money in that direction to increase your ROI. Please take the time to look at analyze your data and make those decisions to become a more profitable player long term.
ROI WIN
Before I Go…
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