We will be going back to the position breakdown this week for NFL week 10 Sunday main slate. I will be focusing on position by position break down of players I like for cash games. GPPs are still a big part of my game, but the majority of my action will be cash games H2Hs each Sunday as we get a lot of volume and variance in NFL.
Let me help you bring success to your game like wins like this one!
Follow me on Twitter @keg4540
Quarterbacks
Ryan Fitzpatrick – Fitzmagic is back in our life! I hope you ran some of him out last week as he put up a really nice score. He is back in play this week and is a fantastic play on FanDuel and a good pay on DraftKings. Tampa Bay does not have a running back that they can rely on so they chuck the ball a ton. They are ranked 6th in the NFL in pass % and 27th in the league in rush %. They just chuck the ball all game and that won’t stop here in a close spread game against Washington. He is easily my cash game QB on FanDuel, but you can make a case for a few guys on DK as they are all priced so similar. Fitzmagic to Evans in a bounce-back spot is one of my favorite stacks on the slate.
Aaron Rodgers – The only thing that would slow Rogers down this week is a blowout. We have more double-digit favorites this week than we have had all year and we have to think about that when picking our quarterbacks. I still think Rodgers can put up 3 – 4 touchdowns here before it gets out of hand against the Dolphins. Green Bay has always been a pass first team and even though if they were smart they would get Jones more touches to take the stress off of Rodgers, I just think they keep letting it ride or die with Rodgers. He is more of a DK cash considering than FanDuel as Fitzpatrick is going to be locked in over there.
Marcus Mariota- You could make a case for a half a dozen QBs this week and I like Golf, Rodgers, Mahomes, and Rivers. They are all heavy favorites and don’t’ mind any of them in cash. I did, however, want to mention Mariota which should have to throw the ball a bunch against New England playing from behind. If you are going to pay down you have to give him a look this week. If that makes you throw up in your mouth a little bit, then how about you look at a cheaper Josh McCown this week against a week Bills secondary. I think both could be cash viable if you wanted to spend down on DraftKings. It does make you feel a little uneasy, but they are worth a mention if spending down in cash on DraftKings.
Running Backs
Todd Gurley – There is not a whole lot to say about arguably the best running back in the NFL. He has been a cash staple all year on DraftKings and this does not change this week. He is still a little expensive on Fanduel and I will probably go Hunt / Gordon combo than Gurley, however, you can easily make a case for him with the value we have this week. I don’t know what else to say but Gurley is a stud and should smash Seattle at home. They are 10 point favorites at home and should look to get back on track after taking their first loss to the Saints last week. Rams are ranked 3rd in the NFL in rush % at 45 percent. Load up on Gurley this week.
Dion Lewis – This is lock button territory for me this week. Derrick Henry is not part of this offensive anymore seeing less than 40 snaps over the last 2 weeks. Lewis was not priced up from his great week last week due to it being a late game last week. He also gets a revenge game against the Patriots for what its worth in a game they should be trailing. It is really hard not to lock him in on both sites as I think you just eat the chalk here. He saw 20 DK points last week and 18 points just a few weeks ago. I think this trend continues as the Titans lack offensive weapons. He is going to be 30 – 40% owned and I plan at least doubling it if not hitting the lock button on every lineup I make this week. The Patriots are ranked 25th in DVOA against pass-catching running backs this year which bodes well for Lewis. (A good GPP pivot for me around this price is Jones)
Kareem Hunt – This pick was very hard for me as Gurley and Lewis are just locks here and don’t over think those picks. This third pick was a real toss up between Hunt and Melvin Gordon. They are both in fantastic spots as heavy favorites, but I am leaning Hunt as they are heavier favorites and should look to pound this rock heavily in the 2nd half. Hunt has scored a TD in 8 straight games and that continues this week. He is also averaging nearly 17 carries a game and has more than 5 targets a game the last 3 weeks. I think you either go Hunt or Gordon as your 3rd RB if you can afford him.
Wide Receivers
Marquez Valdes-Scantling – MVS is basically a free square for me this week at WR on all sites. Geronimo Allison is on the IR and Randall Cobb might not suit up for the Packers. He should see 5 – 8 targets in this spot against Miami and is going to pretty popular. I am guessing around 20 – 30% owned this Sunday. The only thing that is going to keep Green bay down at all is they are heavy home favorites and they might not need a lot of MVS in the 2nd half. I think that makes me worry more about Davante Adams and his price than the cheap tag that comes from MVS.
Jarvis Landry – Juice continues to see great matchups, yet just doesn’t seem to find a way to smash. The Falcons gets smashed in the middle of the field and Landry runs most of his routes in the slot. I think you can go Landry on DraftKings and Josh Gordon on FanDuel in cash games. Landry owns over 30% of the market share of air yards for Cleveland and even though he has not smashed this year, his opportunity is there (11 targets a game). That is all we can ask for in cash games is opportunity and game flow (should be playing from behind this game).
Mike Evans – I went back and forth with Tyler Boyd and Mike Evans in this last spot. The one thing that has me leaning Evans is I like this game more than the CIN / NO game, as I think it goes under. Fitzmagic also loves to target Evans and has other weapons WAS has to focus on, whereas CIN has A.J. Green out. That puts all the pressure and coverage onto Tyler Boyd which I think actually hurts his value and he is expensive. Big Mike only caught 1 of his 10 targets last week, but he is going to see double-digit targets in this game and I think he sees the end zone. WAS is ranked 25th defensive DVOA and 19th passing DVOA.
Tight Ends
David Njoku – I want to start off by saying I don’t like the tight end position at all this week. There was not one player that stood out to me as the play outside of Kelce, but they won’t need to use him all game as I think they smash Arizona by half. He could still get his in a half in this game, I just don’t want to pay up for him in cash and will leave him in GPPs. The Browns are 4 point dogs here against Atlanta and they are going to need to use their passing game to stay up with Atlanta. Njoku should be targetted often here and owns nearly 15% of the market share of air yards for Cleveland.
Jack Doyle – As I stated with Njoku, this position is extremely weak and I am looking for guys I think are going to get targets. Doyle saw 7 targets last week catching 6 of them for 70 yards and a TD. I think Jacksonville shuts down TY Hilton and crew and this leads to more targets and opportunities for Doyle. Luck should look to him often here in a tough matchup against Jacksonville’s tough D.
Defense
New York Jets – Streaming defenses against the lowly Bills has been a winning formula all year long. It doesn’t matter who the Bills put behind center, they just don’t have the firepower to compete with anyone. The obvious pivot me for me around the same price point that is not KC that I mentioned below is the Chicago Bears. They get Mack back this week and Detroit gave up a record number of sacks to the Vikings last week. This bodes well for the Bears who are playing at home in Chicago and have been playing well as a unit all year long. Look for one of these defenses to anchor your cash games.
Kansas City Chiefs – The Chiefs defense is not that great, but they are better at home. They are also 16.5 point favorite and get one of the worst offenses in the league ranked 31st in offensive DVOA. KC is ranked 7th in sack % and 13th in pressure %. I think they can take one to the house this week as Arizona will have to press the ball down the field being down by a ton of points.
**** Lookout in VIP chat for my core 4 for the 3 sites **** I will be posting early in the morning.
Keg Stands
This week in Keg Stands I don’t want to talk about a GPP approach, but more on analyzing your data you have collected over the first 6 weeks of the season to continue to build up that ROI. I have noticed that my DK h2h matches are right around the 60% mark which is not bad, but my FD h2h win percentage is 75% with a 36% ROI as you can see below. That tells me that I have been doing much better on FD than DK so far and I will push some of my volume on FanDuel this week as I continue to watch my win % and ROI. You can make the best lineups in the world each week, but if you are not in the right contests and do not watch how you are doing, then you will never be as successful at DFS as you could be. It is important to look back at your data and see where your success is and push some of your money in that direction to increase your ROI. Please take the time to look at analyze your data and make those decisions to become a more profitable player long term.
ROI WIN
Before I Go…
My goal as a contributor with DFS Army is to make your experience more interactive than you are used to. I’ve been around a few sites, and I’ve found the dedication to helping and responsiveness I was looking for. We understand it’s frustrating waiting days and even weeks for a response to your DFS question. DFS Army has solved that with our real-time coaching format putting all 20+ coaches with all 1500+ members across dozens of organized rooms like: NFL, MLB, NBA, coach’s corners, optimizer help, and more. You have NEVER seen a community like this dedicated to helping beginners, intermediates, and experts alike by sharing everything they have learned over the years of playing the games themselves.
Football has always been my first love, and I am excited to be a part of the DFS Army! Join us today and let us help you dominate this football season whether it be college or the NFL! Sign up for DFS Army now and let us help you get started dominating the competition faster than going it alone.
