Welcome to NFL DFS #TheWishbone! Some of you might not even know what a wishbone is, and I’m about to date myself here. The Wishbone, before passing became so prolific, was perhaps the most powerful running formation in all of football. I’m talking before Tecmo Bowl and face masks. The beauty of the wishbone formation, and this article series, is you knew what you were getting. It was going to be announced as fundamentally sound and maybe a bit chalky. But, you were still going to have to stop it………..and that was the problem, most couldn’t. I write the same way. Here it is big boy, come and get it!
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Remember, this article is designed to get you pointed in the right direction. It’s not a thorough slate write-up and it’s not a player picks piece. I would rather get you started, then have you interact with us in our VIP slack forums as we banter picks and strategies back and forth. Learning NFL the right way is the fastest way to grow your skill level. Certainly, follow me for “process” or validation. But, we are going to disagree….and that’s perfectly fine. You only need to know WHY you disagree with me, and you need to be able to trust your own gut and think for yourself. That is the only way you will truly be a great DFS NFL player.
Week 6 NFL Vegas Odds Table
We can talk about a lot of things, but when it comes to the NFL, I like keeping things simple at first. Implied columns are the individual team’s implied total. The favorite is obviously the favored team in Vegas. The underdog is obviously the underdog. And, the spread is the point differential Vegas feels the final score will display. We use all of these parameters to predict game scripts and prioritize the games we plan to attack for the upcoming week.
NFL DFS Week 6 “Top 3s”
I’m not going to break down every game and every playable player for you. I will, however, give you MY favorites. My favorite games, players at each position, and gpp plays. I’m going to keep it rather short, though. I’m curating my own content and research, and I expect you to do the same. And, I’m absolutely honored, you consider me one of your curated sources and trusted weekly opinions. I love listening to our podcast page, both free and VIP-only. I also use our Research Station very heavily all year long (tutorial here).
Top 3 NFL Games to Target
KC @ NEP – This is a rematch of a great game last year to open the season, and if possible, it might be better this time around. The Pats are surging back after a slow start, and I’m not sure Bill Belichick is going to allow Kareem Hunt to trample all over them again. However, he has to contend with phenom Patrick Mahomes (the second coming of Tom Brady….there I said it Chowdah Heads) and several weapons that can burn you if you scheme some “top player” away. It’s common knowledge the KC defense DGAFs like Jay Cutler, so we can safely expect a shootout. Who will win? Who cares. Fire nearly everything up in this barn-burner and just reel in the fantasy goodness like Steely Dan reels in the yeeeez.
TB @ ATL – I see this game going a different direction that some might. I see a division rival, a couple of not so good defenses, and some high flying offenses. Shootout, right? Not so fast. People seem to think Jamies Winston is better than Ryan Fitzpatrick. I mean Fitzmagic can, and does, go Fitztragic……but Winston isn’t necessarily an upgrade. All his receivers’ targets dropped off, and their fantasy points melted like the Wicked Witch took on water without a bilge pump. I can see a scenario where ATL throttles that TB secondary and Winston is incapable of keeping up thereby scripting Ryan’s weapons nearly moot while the stupid committee of Freeman and Coleman simply salt the game away late. Buyer beware.
PIT @ CIN – Another division rival, and this one might mean even more business. Ben on the road in early games? Hard pass. He can schmuck this up like he did in CLE rendering all his other pass-catchers more dependent on him than my gramma is on her “fixed income.” I can trust The Dalton Gang easy enough given how poor PIT tackles. Ben will be forced to have the kind of game he, historically, hasn’t shown us he can. But, I’ll be watching……rooting for the shootout at the Dalton House (a college bar of mine that was more fun than a Las Vegas bachelor party…..I would know. I’ve been to both).
Top 3 Quarterbacks
Allow me to first show you how this works. I’m narrowing down to my favorite 3 at each spot. My personal list might be a good bit bigger. QBs, for example, had me narrowing down quickly from 32 to 9 in week 5. But, from there we started splitting hairs. They were: Cam, Big Ben, Watson, Brady, Rivers, Brees, Mahomes, Wentz, and Dalton. These are QBs I believed could “win the week” at their positions (along with a couple roadies). But, at that point, with a gun to my head, I had to look at the first three I would have been excited to reach for in my core lineups. However, I’d still take tourney shots with all of them at varying exposures.
Matt Ryan – Well, I have to start with something obvious. Home, favored, implied to score a shit-ton. Top 10 in Total QBR efficiency and facing a secondary giving up the most points to QBs in the entire league. There really isn’t much more to say….he simply checks every box you can offer.
Tom Brady – Again with the home/favored bullshit? Yes. I’m nothing if I’m not systematic when I come to my core players. Home, favored, implied to score over 24, and efficient are hallmarks of QBs that hit value for you. If you like Andrew Luck, I can’t blame you for his pass volume. I can tell you he won’t hit value as often as Tom Brady at home, favored, and facing the freakin Chefs. (Yes, I called them Chefs……it’s a local thing.)
Kirk Cousins – I’m torn here, so let’s call it a tie. Cousins volume, known targets to pair with, great matchup, and price are making him ding my radar in a hard way. Besides, who are they legitimately going to run with? Lats is mediocre and Cook is still nursing his hammy like a baby nurses mom’s chapped nipple. Mom wants baby to just step off, and I want the same at this point.
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Top 3 Running Backs
Melvin Gordon – When we ran through the video below, we mentioned “home, favored, tons of touches, red zone work, passing down work, and a solid matchup vs a team allowing points to running backs” and Melvin Gordon checks every box. He tends to go a little unnoticed at times, but this might not be the week with Gurley on the road and Kamara getting Ingram back. I’m absolutely locking him in, though, and not looking back in any format I play. I will hedge/fade a couple, but that’s not necessarily for leverage as much as it’s for the concern that any player can sustain an injury on any play for any reason and I don’t want to have him in 100% of my lineups should that be the case. Other than that, I’m as all in as I’ll ever be on a single player. (I’m just keeping this statement here despite a few technicalities because I’m lazy and more importantly……my opinion hasn’t changed a bit on how solid Gordon is.)
James White – I know people love the new kid Sony Michel, but c’mon….do we really think NE is just going to blow up KC and script Michel into a ton of touches? Ummmm, no. The more likely scenario is NE is competitive or playing catchup here keeping White mega involved. Michel may also be involved, but White is more script proof in this scenario. White has quietly displayed some kind of crazy solid floor in ppr leagues. One day NE will burn us again, but until then, I’m just riding the train.
Marshawn Lynch – Yep, I’m going down in flames on this one. I’m going back to the well. I got burned hard last week with Lynch, but the spot is still just too good in a week I can’t honestly pay up for Gordon/Gurley with impunity. Lynch faces a team giving 14th most points to RBs and shouldn’t be scripted away from this one given what Gurley did to SEA and their run defense last week. I love me a good bounceback, and this is one helluva bounceback spot.
Why no Gurley? Well, he’s more expensive than the Hope Diamond on a Kardashian’s finger. I can force it, but am finding in my initial builds that I’m finding a better overall floor/ceiling combination by fading him and telling both Draftkings and Fanduel to suck it. I’m no yuppie douche that overpays for Apple products because he perceives price equal to quality. I’m a frugal cheapskate that reuses dryer sheets and Cool Whip containers without shame.
Top 3 Wide Receivers
Adam Thielen – I’m sorry, but the man-crush is real. This dude just produces. He’s due for a dud someday, but he has put up better numbers than Antonio Brown in “bad matchup” after “bad matchup.” The floor is safe, the upside is there, the price has still not caught up, and did I mention I’m cheap? I hunt bargains for a living. Gimme Thielen and come try and beat me in head-to-heads.
Tyler Boyd – I think I also mentioned a bounceback? I think I also mentioned the Steelers are coming to town and tackle about as well as Sheldon Cooper on Ambien. The Bengals might just fun like Forrest Gump on Sunday. The targets should bounceback, and Boyd’s fantasy production should, too. He burned people somewhat last week, and his ownership still hasn’t been super chalky for the production. His price also hasn’t come up, and we need to save some salary this week at more than tight end or defense.
Robert Woods – Woods is steadily becoming Goff’s #1 when he’s in a pinch. Yes, they have volume to Cooks and Kupp in the red zone, but Woods has been a sneaky play where everyone focuses on Gurley the past couple weeks. We know he can have spike games, and we know he has a decent floor. Add in both Kupp and Cooks are in concussion protocol, and we might see even more targets for Woods and Gurley this week. We should be monitoring the news, and if one (or both) of the receivers sit……fire up Woods in any format but the hths where you take me on. I’d rather stay the smug smart guy in the room when the dust settles.
Top 3 Tight Ends
Cameron Brate – What am I stupid? I just told you I want to be the smart guy. You think I’d miss this $4500 piece of fat chalk that already has a noted chemical connection with Jamies Winston like Josh Gordon to the Devil’s Lettuce? Seriously, I’m writing others up because it’s called “Top 3s” not because I think these other two are better in cash games.
Eric Ebron – Without Doyle, he’s just the man. Tons of targets, insane athleticism, and still a bad case of the dropsies. But, he has the same philosophy as I did when it came to dating women in high school…………..quality through quantity. Hell, it’s practically a dfs motto.
Zach Ertz – He just has a place somewhere on this list weekly. I’m not sure you should pay up for him, though, this week. But, if you must, you will get a nearly guaranteed 10+ targets facing a top 5 soft defense when it comes to TEs. But, if I’m you in gpps, I’d just pay up for……..(take 3 guesses and the first 2 don’t count).
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Top 3 Defenses
HOU – I’ll take Football Ineptitude for $1000, Alex. “This team hits the lottery in week 6 by matching up against a team that hasn’t been implied to score more than 20 points in a game since Jim Kelly and Bruce Smith were teammates.” Ummmmm, who is the Houston Texans matching up with the Buffalo Bills? Just keep attacking. End of blurb.
BAL – But, if you feel the need to join me in Cheapass Alleyway, I’ll be in there potentially with the Ravens at $4000. We have a solid sack rate, decent dfs floor for a volatile position, and a matchup against a team prone to turnovers that Vegas thinks can’t score more than anyone but the aforementioned Buffalo Bills.
CHI – Honestly, the previous was all just a dog and pony show. My real favorite defense is the Chicago Bears. These guys are insanity on wheels. Watch this and find a better defense….. Fantasy points so far – 14, 13, 17, 14. Sacks on the season – 4, 6, 4, 4. Takeaways through 4 weeks – 3, 4, 2, 2. Ummmm, yep. And, no one is calling them the 2017 Jaguars yet. Load up while you can.
Remember, my Top 3 GPP picks are yet to come….keep reading!
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Top 3 GPP Plays
Rob Gronkowski – Paying up to be contrarian is never a bad plan. When Ertz is priced under Gronk, there really is no reason to pay more other than for upside. You can toss Travis Kelce on this same pile, too. But, Gronk can win a slate for you any given week. The more he sort of stinks, the more I will include him in at least one GPP lineup weekly. When everyone pays down, paying up for Gronk throws your whole construction in a different direction as a bonus making it easy to be rather unique. I don’t know when Gronk will score 2 TDs in a game, but I know he will as long as he’s healthy. It may take the emergence of Josh GordonP lifting the lid on the defenses, but I can patiently wait for the day it finally happens. (We are getting closer by the week. This week we draw the Chiefs and the team allowing the 30th most fantasy points to the position.)
Patrick Mahomes/Tyreke Hill (Th-Mon slates) – Why specific to a slate? Because people will be playing PrimeTime to get access to the Sunday Night Game. People will also play the Thursday game a little too hard, as always. And, no one has patience to wait all the way until after the Main Slate to watch their players scoop all the tickets. You get lower ownership in these later games, and you can’t argue Mahomes/Tyreke have cooled off a smidge but can still break any slate. Toss in a probable shootout, and you have my interest in satellites, qualifiers, and any top heavy contest viable.
Doug Baldwin – The knee isn’t good, but he claims that’s not the issue. His target volume is horrible because his team runs the ball the most in the league right now. However, Dougie was bitching up a storm last week about getting only the one target and draws a bad OAK secondary across the ocean in a spot the league loves to show off exhibition-style. It’s a bit of an O’dell Beckham bitchfest narrative, but that’s what gpps are for……….low owned, narrative city, and hope you guess right with a play or two around an otherwise solid core. Give Baldwin a chip on his shoulder and no one in dfs willing to gamble and you’ll see him in a lineup or three of mine come Sunday.
NFL DFS Breakdown Video – A Hyper-Simple Method to Narrow Your Player Pool
But, We’re Not Done!
I am a better cash player than GPP player; therefore, you can easily use my chalk plays to find similar, but lower owned, plays for yourself. And, you can also use me to help you learn the fundamentals if you are just starting out. The cash players are often highly owned. They are highly owned for a reason…they are in the best spots, the obvious spots. When you graduate from my school of the obvious, you are ready to ask The Geek, Donuts, Keg, Puggle, DFSUpNorth, BigMarley, and our other staff members for their opinions on more sophisticated endeavors. But, you can only do so as a VIP. Our individual and group coaching channels are where the magic happens, and it’s where our 20+ coaches live!!
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