Welcome to NFL DFS #TheWishbone! Some of you might not even know what a wishbone is, and I’m about to date myself here. The Wishbone, before passing became so prolific, was perhaps the most powerful running formation in all of football. I’m talking before Tecmo Bowl and face masks. The beauty of the wishbone formation, and this article series, is you knew what you were getting. It was going to be announced as fundamentally sound and maybe a bit chalky. But, you were still going to have to stop it………..and that was the problem, most couldn’t. I write the same way. Here it is big boy, come and get it!
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Remember, this article is designed to get you pointed in the right direction. It’s not a thorough slate write-up and it’s not a player picks piece. I would rather get you started, then have you interact with us in our VIP slack forums as we banter picks and strategies back and forth. Learning NFL the right way is the fastest way to grow your skill level. Certainly, follow me for “process” or validation. But, we are going to disagree….and that’s perfectly fine. You only need to know WHY you disagree with me, and you need to be able to trust your own gut and think for yourself. That is the only way you will truly be a great DFS NFL player.
Week 5 NFL Vegas Odds Table
We can talk about a lot of things, but when it comes to the NFL, I like keeping things simple at first. Implied columns are the individual team’s implied total. The favorite is obviously the favored team in Vegas. The underdog is obviously the underdog. And, the spread is the point differential Vegas feels the final score will display. We use all of these parameters to predict game scripts and prioritize the games we plan to attack for the upcoming week.
NFL DFS Week 5 “Top 3s”
I’m not going to break down every game and every playable player for you. I will, however, give you MY favorites. My favorite games, players at each position, and gpp plays. I’m going to keep it rather short, though. I’m curating my own content and research, and I expect you to do the same. And, I’m absolutely honored, you consider me one of your curated sources and trusted weekly opinions. I love listening to our podcast page, both free and VIP-only. I also use our Research Station very heavily all year long (tutorial here).
Top 3 NFL Games to Target
WAS @ NOS – Sort of for fantasy purposes, but more for the future. I want to see how the return of Mark Ingram affects Alvin Kamara. I’m sold on the fact if Ingram splits time with Kamara at all, Kamara is overpriced. Kamara has a ridiculous amount of rushing touchdowns for how little he actually carried the ball. Imagine Drew Brees’ numbers if he’d thrown just an extra third of those rushing TDs to Kamara instead? I also want to see if Alex Smith is allowed to Checkdown Charlie everything to Chris Thompson. At first look, the Saints defend the run well…..because they can’t defend the pass. But, with a checkdown pussy like Alex Smith, I see Chris Thompson getting some love this week if they want to keep things close.
JAX @ KCC – Another “fan based” game for me over purely DFS interest. Patrick Mahomes has just lit the world afire, and he has just shit-kicked every gauntlet thrown at his feet so far. Going in to Denver last week wasn’t any easy assignment and he engineered a final drive just good enough to get the job done. JAX is obviously an elite defense, but Vegas still loves the Chiefs to score 3-4 touchdowns behind Mahomes and all their weaponry. Of course, we have some interest in Jags offensive players, too, because the Chiefs play defense like a porn star plays peek-a-boo. And, like a field full of porn stars, we just want to watch anything and everything associated with this game. (Don’t pretend like you don’t like porn. Women and men alike pretend they are disgusted by it, but numbers don’t lie…..we all watch it. Ha…another parallel to this game. We pretend we don’t enjoy it, but I bet the ratings are among the best of the week. People just have to watch the excitement.)
ATL @PIT – Ok, this one actually has seriously fantasy appeal. I’m watching this because it appears most of my DFS play will be locked inside this one. When the underdog is implied to score 27 points, you have a shootout warning! Big Ben at home with Antonio and Juju? Give me Julio and the point-chaser-paradise that is Calvin Ridley with Matty Ice on the flip flop? Man, that game has weapons, too. And, I haven’t mentioned my sneaky play yet…….that gets saved for my VIPs. Hint: It’s not James Conner.
Top 3 Quarterbacks
Allow me to first show you how this works. I’m narrowing down to my favorite 3 at each spot. My personal list might be a good bit bigger. QBs, for example, have me narrowing down quickly from 32 to 9. But, from there we start splitting hairs. They are: Cam, Big Ben, Watson, Brady, Rivers, Brees, Mahomes, Wentz, and Dalton. These are QBs I believe can “win the week” at their positions (along with a couple roadies). But, now with a gun to my head, I have to look at the first three I’ll be excited to reach for in my core lineups. I’ll take tourney shots with all of them at varying exposures.
Cam Newton – Simply put, this is a great situation for a guy that always has gpp-winning upside and a pretty strong floor due to his running ability and goal line carries. Give me him at home, favored, implied to score over my benchmark of 24, and a defense having trouble defending the pass, and I’m going to be giddy for the opportunity. Matchups don’t get a lot better for Cam than this week. I don’t know if I’ll lock him in everywhere, but I might be overthinking things if I don’t.
Ben Roethlisberger – Another stellar situation. We get Ben at home, favored, implied to score a ton here, too. We know ATL struggles to defend pass-catching backs, so this helps Ben with outlet passes if he finds himself being chased around a little. More week-winning upside with three viable weapons and two tight ends splitting red zone work is enough to put him up there on a very short list.
Philip Rivers – The more I look at the previous two, the less I like Rivers. Game sets up very similarly, but he doesn’t have the weapons of Ben and doesn’t have the legs of Cam. You have to love the spot, but you might look lower at this point if trying to save a little scratch. Bortles and Dalton are coming to mind. If things change with my mindset, I’ll let you VIPs know in our coaching channels as my thoughts evolve.
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Top 3 Running Backs
Melvin Gordon – When we ran through the video below, we mentioned “home, favored, tons of touches, red zone work, passing down work, and a solid matchup vs a team allowing points to running backs” and Melvin Gordon checks every box. He tends to go a little unnoticed at times, but this might not be the week with Gurley on the road and Kamara getting Ingram back. I’m absolutely locking him in, though, and not looking back in any format I play. I will hedge/fade a couple, but that’s not necessarily for leverage as much as it’s for the concern that any player can sustain an injury on any play for any reason and I don’t want to have him in 100% of my lineups should that be the case. Other than that, I’m as all in as I’ll ever be on a single player.
James Conner – We have a rather chalky game this week, and Conner finds himself in an interesting spot. I want to lock him in, but I have my questions. Switzer was getting some carries/work in previous games. Conner has not been efficient as a runner the past 3 weeks. Ben has Antonio and Juju and might also opt for James or McDonald in shorter passing situations leaving Conner as the odd man out. I can’t deny the spot. I can question my trustability of the usage. And, as the rest of the industry begins to talk him up, it sours me on him in that I want to fade an uncertain spot like this if everyone flocks to it. That’s a leverage play I’ll even use in cash games if I can find another RB I trust more. I’m not fading due to ownership completely. I’m fading to gain some leverage IF I have other equal or better options.
Joe Mixon/Gio Bernard – And, this might be the option. I like either, but I don’t want a committee. If Mixon sits, I’ll be on Gio again. If Mixon is playing, I likely roll up to Conner. We have another running back running hot in Gio with very little competition if Mixon is still ailing. I wonder if CIN will even rush Mixon back with the way Gio has played in his absence? I guess the news wire is more important to this situation than I originally thought being I’m comparing it with another key player.
Top 3 Wide Receivers
Juju Smith-Schuster – Not many will realize this, but air yards are about the same between Juju and Antonio. So are targets. However, price is not. $9000 for Antonio and $8000 for Juju on Fanduel. I’m going to need that $1000 discount. It just so happens that ATL is 25th in DVOA vs the pass but 8th in yards allowed per pass attempt. How can you be good in one category and bad in another? Sharper minds might see that means people aren’t throwing downfield as much against ATL but are rather killing them with shorter, underneath work. Well, Antonio runs all sorts of routes, so we should just roster him, right? Not so fast. Antonio’s aDOT is 10.3 yds right now and Juju’s is only 6.5ish. So, who is actually seeing the underneath work where the Falcons are giving up points? Juju………for the $1000 and likely correct play, I’ll be on Juju. But, I won’t be afraid to run Ben, Conner, and Juju in a lineup if I feel I need to. This game is set to catch fire one way or another.
Adam Theilen – No one since Randy Moss in 2007 has started a season with all four games over 100 receiving yards……until Adam Theilen. Diggs is always a nice pivot, but if you need the combo of safety and upside, Theilen is the man in this offense. And, I’ll keep running to him when it makes sense. He’ll likely get his work before it’s all said and done. Vegas doesn’t like this game, so it carries a smidge of risk. I’ll be evaluating against how much I feel I need Juju in this one, but I won’t hesitate to run Theilen out in any lineup all year long if he keeps producing in this offense.
Jordy Nelson – The Raiders just keep popping off the page at me this week. The Chargers defense hasn’t been good vs the WR1 or the WR2 and with the Amari Cooper drops again, it seems the door has been opening for Jordy Nelson out west. 8 targets each of the past two weeks with a touchdown for $5600 screams value receiver. If I use him and go back to the well with Tyler Boyd, I can likely get well up in the pay scales for some higher floor/higher upside combos in some really chalky games. I love finding a stellar value that opens up a slate. Jordy might be that guy for us in Week 5.
Top 3 Tight Ends
Zach Ertz – No one earns the consistency of targets Ertz does. No one. First 4 weeks, 14, 10, 13, 10 targets. I mean what is that for a tight end? That’s the kind of production you attempt to pay up for that’s what. MIN is middling to sort of bad vs TEs this year, and Ertz is Wentz’ favorite receiver, bar none. I’ll be reaching if I don’t feel I’m sacrificing too much to do so.
George Kittle – At an $1100 Fanduel discount, Kittle is likely Beathard’s favorite receiver as well. With 8, 7, 4, 9 targets in his four weeks, Kittle draws a less than intimidating ARI squad while at home and also favored…..a couple huge indicators a TE is in line to reach value. Ertz is a little better, but Kittle ain’t a bad settling point. I won’t want to pay under either of these two if at all possible.
Vance McDonald – But, if I have to, I might go all the way down to $4600 and Vance. PIT is facing ATL in a shootout game that everyone will be looking to grab exposure to like Donald Trump or Tiger Woods to porn stars. It takes a leap of faith being a committee, but signs are beginning to point to what we thought in the preseason………..Vance is the passing target in this offense. And, of course, if it backfires, it doesn’t completely wipe out your roster. Heck, he only costs about what a premium defense costs you.
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Top 3 Defenses
Carolina Panthers – Home, favored heavily, and facing an offensive line that is arguably one of the worst in the league. I’m a little disappointed by the lackluster 8 sacks on the year, but I do like the 5 interceptions. I also like the fact Eli can just melt down at times and make some horrible, horrible decisions when the ball leaves his hand. Given NYG is only implied to score 18.5ish points on the week, we should see Eli take flight early and often in order to keep this game close enough to possibly win late. Simply put, the qualities of “big favorite and low opponent implied total” mean the defense is in play. In Carolina’s case, probably chalky, too.
Tennessee Titans – Well, here is your obligatory “target the team playing Buffalo” pick. I don’t think it needs much explanation at this point in the season, and especially after last week when most went away from Green Bay and paid the price for getting too cute. I will add, though, that the BUF defense isn’t a terrible pick either. Mariota looked better, but he’s notoriously inconsistent, and BUF has a pass rush of their own (10 sacks, 2 INTs, 7 FFs). Feel free to play either one, honestly.
Cleveland Browns – These guys are incredibly aggressive on defense. 12 sacks on the year indicates a nice pass rush, and multiple turnovers in each game indicate some talent in the secondary, too. They are going overlooked weekly, and as long as they don’t give up 30+ to teams, they should have a decent floor with sacks and turnovers alone. When cheap and facing a turnover prone offense, you can fire them up. BAL might not be the best spot to do so, but Flacco has had issues, and BAL can’t run….which means they might be taking to the air more and allowing CLE to stay aggressive in their gameplan.
Remember, my Top 3 GPP picks are yet to come….keep reading!
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Top 3 GPP Plays
Rob Gronkowski – Paying up to be contrarian is never a bad plan. When Ertz is priced under Gronk, there really is no reason to pay more other than for upside. You can toss Travis Kelce on this same pile, too. But, Gronk can win a slate for you any given week. The more he sort of stinks, the more I will include him in at least one GPP lineup weekly. When everyone pays down, paying up for Gronk throws your whole construction in a different direction as a bonus making it easy to be rather unique. I don’t know when Gronk will score 2 TDs in a game, but I know he will as long as he’s healthy. It may take the emergence of Josh Gordon lifting the lid on the defenses, but I can patiently wait for the day it finally happens.
Matt Ryan/Julio Jones/James Conner – This particular stack needs a pretty specific script to play out, but it does have a little wiggle room for a shootout. The world should be looking to the PIT side of the ball with the Steelers at home. Those that do focus on Atlanta will likely be itching to get Antonio and Ridley as their pairings due to big names and shiny new toys. But, our combo here focuses on Julio and what might be somewhat depressed ownership for what he can do if he actually gets in the endzone once or twice. And, we can also play the angle of a PIT bigger lead down the stretch and using James Conner to lean a little on the clock while Julio grabs some garbage time points with Matty Ice. I just like the fact there are easy to see scenarios for this particular combo along with a couple players people won’t be quite as focused on as others in this game. Being contrarian in the chalk game is just another way to play gpps well.
Alvin Kamara – I’m hoping the world gets scared by the return of Mark Ingram here. I think it’s fairly obvious that Ingram will take touches and goal line work from Kamara, but what if it doesn’t right away? This is a classic “get greedy when the world gets scared” scenario, and the way Alvin Kamara has broken two slates in four weeks, I’d be nuts to completely fade this spot. If ownership is going to take a hit, I want shares of the guy in the gpp winning lineups multiple times already with the big play potential and efficiency that made us all wonder if he was the real deal just a month ago.
NFL DFS Breakdown Video – A Hyper-Simple Method to Narrow Your Player Pool
But, We’re Not Done!
I am a better cash player than GPP player; therefore, you can easily use my chalk plays to find similar, but lower owned, plays for yourself. And, you can also use me to help you learn the fundamentals if you are just starting out. The cash players are often highly owned. They are highly owned for a reason…they are in the best spots, the obvious spots. When you graduate from my school of the obvious, you are ready to ask The Geek, Donuts, Keg, Puggle, DFSUpNorth, BigMarley, and our other staff members for their opinions on more sophisticated endeavors. But, you can only do so as a VIP. Our Slack chat forum is where the magic happens, and it’s where these coaches live!!
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