Welcome to NFL DFS #TheWishbone! Some of you might not even know what a wishbone is, and I’m about to date myself here. The Wishbone, before passing became so prolific, was perhaps the most powerful running formation in all of football. I’m talking before Tecmo Bowl and face masks. The beauty of the wishbone formation, and this article series, is you knew what you were getting. It was going to be announced as fundamentally sound and maybe a bit chalky. But, you were still going to have to stop it………..and that was the problem, most couldn’t. I write the same way. Here it is big boy, come and get it!
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Remember, this article is designed to get you pointed in the right direction. It’s not a thorough NFL slate write-up and it’s not a player picks piece. I would rather get you started, then have you interact with us in our VIP slack forums as we banter picks and strategies back and forth. Learning NFL the right way is the fastest way to grow your skill level. Certainly, follow me for “process” or validation. But, we are going to disagree….and that’s perfectly fine. You only need to know WHY you disagree with me, and you need to be able to trust your own gut and think for yourself. That is the only way you will truly be a great DFS NFL player.
Week 8 NFL Vegas Odds Table
We can talk about a lot of things, but when it comes to the NFL, I like keeping things simple at first. Implied columns are the individual team’s implied total. The favorite is obviously the favored team in Vegas. The underdog is obviously the underdog. And, the spread is the point differential Vegas feels the final score will display. We use all of these parameters to predict game scripts and prioritize the games we plan to attack for the upcoming week.
NFL DFS Week 8 “Top 3s”
I’m not going to break down every game and every playable player for you. I will, however, give you MY favorites. My favorite games, NFL players at each position, and gpp plays. I’m going to keep it rather short, though. I’m curating my own content and research, and I expect you to do the same. And, I’m absolutely honored, you consider me one of your curated sources and trusted weekly opinions. I love listening to our podcast page, both free and VIP-only. I also use our Research Station very heavily all year long (tutorial here).
Top 3 NFL Games to Target
NOS @ MIN – I see the non-main-slate games and now get giddy every week. We know people overplay the front of the slate and tend to forget the back of the slate. With no big spread telling us which side to pick on, we can look at some DVOA numbers John Q Public might not notice. NO is the #1 defense vs the run and 30th vs the pass. This should funnel right into MIN’s strength…..passing. It should put Cousins, Thielen, and Diggs square on the radar as cash options easily. (The public will see that and they will accidentally be correct.) MIN is 9th vs the run and 25th vs the pass. So, we can also look to the NO passing attack here as perhaps a slightly contrarian play being on the road and with people wondering still about the Ingram/Kamara timeshare. The result should be a passing bonanza and the reason why we see only a 1 point spread with a 53 point total. On paper, we have a legit shootout predicted by Vegas and the road team is as much in play as the home team, especially if this one plays to the over Sunday Night.
DEN @ KCC – I love my rivalries, and Denver/KC can be about as good as it gets. Give me a high-flying Chiefs squad at home for back to back weeks, and I’ll lick my chops. However, while everyone is flocking to Mahomes and his cronies, I’m looking at the resurgence of Kareem Hunt (see RB section). Don’t get me wrong, almost any Chief is in play but the Broncos are far worse vs the run than they are the pass. I’m intrigued by the KC defense, but can’t trust them. They are better as of late because they have backed off their all out aggression lately and become a little more patient in bending before clamping down in the red zone. Their sack total is respectable with a few each game, and their takeaways have spiked through that selective aggression keeping opposing offenses a little off balance. With defensive TDs in 2 of their last 3 weeks, they have my attention even though I don’t see myself pulling the trigger. For Denver, KC is horrible against the run. Part of that is they just are. The other part is they jump out to leads and force teams to the air. I’ll be digging a little into the DEN running backs in an attempt to get a feel for a gameplan. If KC runs the ball like mad (weak spot in DEN defense) and Denver responds in kind (weak spot of KC defense with Keenum being pretty crappy lately), we might play to the under and take plays off the board thereby making the KC players fairly overpriced. A very realistic scenario that might catch the chalk off guard being KC hasn’t been on a main slate in 2 weeks and people love shiny new toys like Mahomes. File that under #FoodForThought.
GBP @ LAR – I hemmed and hawed over a few other games, but settled here. Todd Gurley is reaching the stratosphere in pricing. GB is stronger vs the pass than the run (27th vs 11th in DVOA), but that doesn’t mean they are some incredible secondary. Jared Goff is as efficient as I am at eating riblets, and the Cooks, Woods, Kupp trio is nasty to defend. All are likely in play….if all play. After all, the Rams passing offense is 2nd in DVOA only to KC. With 33 implied points, there should be plenty to go around. Marcus Peters might draw Devante Adams as of now, and Peters has little help on defense and is allowing a 115 passer rating against per our WR/CB charts released late each week. I’m not opposed to looking at the Rodgers/Adams connection, but I think I’ll save it for a tourney shot….or Adams as a one-off.
Top 3 Quarterbacks
There are a LOT of quarterbacks in play weekly. However, I try to trim things down at every position. Many playable QBs (and any position, honestly) won’t make my list. I focus heavily on home teams, favorites, and teams implied to score a lot of points. These situations, historically, have the highest odds at returning value. I’m a cash-centric player that never sees the point of unnecessary risk. Unless otherwise stated, these players are going to be on my cash game short lists.
Patrick MahomesP – I love Mahomes at home and highly favored. This kid just slings the leather like a dominatrix in a dungeon after a long week of being pushed around at work by men. Fetishes aside, I worry he’s overpriced this week. DEN is very weak against the run. Just ask the Rams, Jets, and even the Chiefs the first time when Hunt went for 19 carries, 121 yds, and a touchdown with 3 catches and another 54 yds tossed in. If the Chiefs to run heavy like this again (rivalry games tend to flip flop and never show the same gameplan twice), Mahomes is overpriced. However, if not…….he can win the week on his own given Hunt’s target share on the rise and weapons like Hill, Watkins, and Kelce.
Andy Dalton – Fire Crotch should be fired up. After a massive letdown in primetime, these Bengals should slip in ownership. That doesn’t fool me, though. Fire Bush carries the highest “Rocket Arm” rating on the week at 20.0 and is averaging 32 pass attempts per week. He draws the passing funnel secondary of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who allow a league-worst 27+ fantasy points to opposing QBs. $7800 on Fanduel and a projection bump to 38 pass attempt, due to pace of play and matchup, tell me I can find cash safe value in Dalton this week with upside to win the week, too.
Mitchell Trubisky – Another value type option, but without the safety of Dalton. Trubisky can be summed up pretty simply: Jets are 6th in DVOA (which will likely scare people away some) but actually rank 17th in yards allowed per pass attempt. He throws the ball 35 times per game on the average and the Bears are making both Tarik Cohen and Taylor Gabriel focal points in scheming balls to them in space where possible. Home and favored, Mitchell Trubisky hits the radar.
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Top 3 Running Backs
Todd GurleyP – Well, there he is again. Todd Gurley is $11o00 on Fanduel and I wonder if we haven’t finally seen the end of his overwhelming chalkiness. However, he’s in another fabulous matchup. The Rams are favored at home and are the top rushing offense in the league. GB, however, ranks near the bottom at stopping the run as 27th in run DVOA and 23rd in yards per carry. With both numbers being at the bottom of the pack, the Pack isn’t just being run on late….they do actually struggle to stop the run. We will need deep value in a couple spots this week to roster The Toddfather. My question with price, though, becomes one of floor and ceiling. If we look strictly at multiplier numbers, 2.5x is 27.5 points. Are you kidding me? The 4x ceiling is a whopping 44 points….is that even possible? I guess we’ll see how much ownership he commands at this insanity-laden price tag.
James Conner – Conner all but fell off the radar in weeks 3-5, but he’s back. He is coming off a bye week, had back to back 25 touch weeks prior, and back to back 100+ yd games on the ground as a result…even against ATL where he picked up 4 receptions for another 75 yds. I hate feeling like we are chasing points, but he simply checks boxes again. He’s home, favored, implied to score over 29 points from Vegas, and carries the highest TruckStick Rating on our NFL Research Station at 19.8 (higher than Gurley). CLE is 21st in points allowed to the position (24+ Fanduel points per game), and we know Conner doesn’t have a lot of competition in the backfield. With CLE also being a top 10 team at defending the pass, we should see touches flow back to James Conner in this one, too, securing his workload enough for cash consideration and a spot on my short list this week.
Kareem Hunt – I’m never fond of trusting an Andy Reid trend, but this NFL matchup just seems to scream like Sandra Bullock in The Blindside…..”RUN THE DANG BALL, BURT!!” 18+ touches, 6 of 7 weeks, 16+ fantasy points his last 5 games, 6 targets (finally!) in back to back weeks, and DEN is 31st vs the run just scream to lock him in. Hunt has 35 points against CIN (31st vs the run) and 27 points vs NE (25th vs the run) in his last 2 games to go with a demolition run previously mentioned vs DEN the first time out. My only small concerns are Andy Reid refusing to do the same thing twice, and Spencer Ware sitting in a tree over a road like a vulture just waiting for Hunt to break a 30+ yd gain to the 5 and needing a breather. Nothing frustrates me more.
Top 3 Wide Receivers
Emmanuel Sanders – If you watched a video by me early this week, you saw me compare my season long players to usable players in DFS NFL. Surprisingly, Sanders is the 3rd most point scoring WR in all of football this year. Yet, on Fanduel, he is only the 15th highest priced WR. This discrepancy is a value matchup we an exploit. KC ranks 31st vs the pass and DEN is going to likely need to throw at some point to keep pace. Kendall Fuller defends the slot for KC and has a putrid -18 cover rating to go with allowing 17 fantasy points per game to slot receivers and a whopping 124 QBR to opposing quarterbacks. If one receiver is set to feast in this potential shootout, it’s Sanders……and he’s a freakin bargain!
TY Hilton – OAK gives 34 points per game to fantasy receivers this year, too. Not exactly a tough secondary. With Andrew Luck throwing passes like t-shirt girls at a baseball game, we turn to the Indy darling Hilton. TY carries the deepest air yards and ADOT in this receiving corps. I know Luck isn’t exactly airing it out this year, but if he’s going to start it’s going to be to his safety blanket TY Hilton. The Raiders rank 30th in DVOA and league-worst 32nd in yards allowed per pass attempt. TY has floor with 8.5 targets per game and the upside of multiple touchdowns and a monster game. Floor/ceiling combos make my list as a priority.
Jarvis Landry – I wanted to also write up Tyler Boyd being he’s also underpriced for his production and matchup this week, but I more wanted to mention something in Jarvis Landry…….touchdown regression. Jarvis is not getting into the endzone with only 2 on the season. We are half way through 2018 at this point and we know Jarvis isn’t likely to end up with only 4. It’s time to start playing the “heavily targeted, red zone trusted, touchdowns are coming” card. No better time than with the Steelers who can’t tackle, give 37+ points to WRs per week, and rank 30th in the NFL vs the pass. Jarvis is only $6700 on Fanduel, receives 11.5 targets per game (120+ air yards per game), and has 13 RZ targets on the year….only Devante Adams and Juju Smith-Schuster have more (and Jarvis is tied with AJ Green). Start looking for positive matchups with Jarvis and start counting on positive regression.
Top 3 Tight Ends
Travis Kelce – Air yards are shown above and only 2 TEs out target Kelce in terms of them. Kelce receives 8.6 targets/gm right now and has 10 RZ targets on the year. He’s pricey, but he’s perhaps the best TE on the planet right now, and can win the week when Andy Reid uses him as a focal point. I worry a little that Kareem Hunt is the focus vs DEN this week, but I never take my eyes off Kelce.
Eric Ebron – Another with spotlight issues at this point. TY is back, but you can’t deny Ebron is gobbling up targets and air yards this year. He has 8.4 targets/gm right now and 14 red zone looks of his own. I won’t be afraid to use either of these two if I have the cap space leftover, but both are costly and better served in gpps for me when I want to get away from my favorite players I reach for in every roster and inevitably overexpose myself to.
David Njoku – Njoku hits the radar hardest this week again. The horizontal arrow shows how many targets PIT allows to TEs compared to our other mentions. Njoku is also the least expensive risk at only $5700 on Fanduel. NFL tight ends are volatile, and we should set our expectations accordingly when saving salary with them. However, Njoku has found the endzone in back to back games and carries our 2nd highest StickyHands rating for TEs on the slate this week. I’m likely slotting him in first given his combination of matchup, salary, and usage in the CLE offense right now.
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Top 3 NFL Defenses
Chicago Bears – $5000 is pricey for a defense, but you can get there. Overall, we don’t want to overthink defenses too much being they are so volatile. NYJ have a rookie QB, an implied total under 20 points, and CHI has 7+ points in five of their last six games, 10+ in four of their last six.
New England Patriots – Who is facing Buffalo? Moving on….
Arizona Cardinals – If we need the savings, ARI faces the 49ers again. ARI is grabbing at least 2 sacks per game, they have 4 INTs in their last three, and 4 fumble recoveries over the same span. Last time out vs SF, the Cardinals defense shook up the world with 21 points on 4 sacks, 2 picks, and 3 fumbles with a score. I don’t mind gambling again for $3400 and the $1600 discount off the Bears.
Remember, my Top 3 GPP picks are yet to come….keep reading!
KBiggz joined our VIP program the morning he made this lineup. He simply latched onto Geek’s NFL Picks and watched the discussions in our coaching channels. From there, he was able to assemble this miraculous lineup that was less than a point away from dragging the full million. We have winners using our content, tools and coaching every week to become better players.
Top 3 GPP Plays
Drew Brees/Michael Thomas – If New Orleans is going to keep up here, it’s going to be via the pass. And, with Ingram eating into Kamara’s snap share, the most reliable receiving weapon to win a gpp is Micheal Thomas. With only a 1 point spread between the two and a 53 point total, the pending shootout won’t be sneaky…..but this will be the sneaky side of the public betting.
Sony Michel – This carries a little trick to pull off. We have a 14 point spread and a coach that likes to pound the rock when he has a dependable running back. Everyone will see the “doubtful” tag and run to James White. But, with extra time to heal, should Michel take the field, you have time to wait on news. You will need to use your flex position, and you will need to watch your salary. There is a $500 difference between Michel and White. Save that for the case Michel is not suiting up and simply pivot to White on Monday Night. However, you do have a few other options if you really need to gamble in this game. Charles Clay could surprise (NE is weak vs TEs and crap QBs like to use their TE). Edelman, Gronk, and Gordon are also all cheaper than Michel if you need pure upside to catch people. By the time Monday arrives, you’ll know where you stand and how much risk you need to take with plenty of time to still adjust off Michel with other options.
Devante Adams – My gpp plays often are simply “secondary” plays that didn’t make my primary cash list. They still offer great matchups, and they are still studs. If you were only a VIP, you’d have received calls like Albert Wilson and James White more than once that would have easily given you lower ownership and huge week-winning upside when I called them. But, most times, that’s not going to be my game. I’m not interested in huge field gpps. I play smaller, more winnable gpps that build bankrolls and stem the losing you have likely grown accustomed to (and incorrectly think is the norm). You don’t win money week after week by taking stupid gambles on long shots. You simply pivot off the plays the public is overvaluing and into another quieter matchup. Devante Adams is that guy this week being Green Bay needs to keep pace, and quickly, with a Rams team likely to just mount a lead and grind clock. It just so happens I mentioned the cornerback likely to cover Adams gives up a QBR over 100 and a lot of fantasy points. When people are focused on Thielen, Antonio, or even AJ Green this week, you can pivot out west and grab similar upside at what should be (as of Wednesday) lower ownership.
NFL DFS Week 8 Breakdown Video – A Hyper-Simple Method to Narrow Your Player Pool
But, We’re Not Done!
I am a better cash player than GPP player; therefore, you can easily use my chalk plays to find similar, but lower owned, plays for yourself. And, you can also use me to help you learn the fundamentals if you are just starting out. The cash players are often highly owned. They are highly owned for a reason…they are in the best spots, the obvious spots. When you graduate from my school of the obvious, you are ready to ask The Geek, Donuts, Keg, Puggle, DFSUpNorth, BigMarley, and our other staff members for their opinions on more sophisticated endeavors. But, you can only do so as a VIP. Our individual and group coaching channels are where the magic happens, and it’s where our 20+ coaches live!!
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