NBA Free Squares October 26th

Welcome to the DFS Army NBA Free Squares article where I will try to break down my favorite NBA Free Squares and Fanduel and Draftkings for Today’s NBA Slate.

So what is a Free Square exactly? In NBA DFS there will be situations that come up that will lead to bench players getting more minutes. Some may even enter the starting lineup. These players will often be priced as backups (their normal role). The increase in their minutes and role will give us someone we can plug into our lineups and expect them to reach or exceed value. The low cost of these players will allow us to spend up across the rest of our lineups. Wich gives us the ability to lock in some high dollar studs.

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Wednesday 10/24 Free Squares Results

(x value is based on Fanduel salary)

Kevin Love – 32.2 fp – 3.78x value
Devin Booker – 37.9 fp – 4.73x value
Kyler Kuzma / Josh Hart – 26.30/25.4 fp – 3.65/3.96 x value
Cameron Payne – 36.00 fp – 9.72x value
Cedi Osman – 16.20 fp – 2.34x value
Garrett Temple / Kyle Anderson – 17.00/19.30 fp – 4.35/4.70x value

Wednesday was rough with Kuma, Hart, and Osman really laying some eggs for us. Kevin Love only scoring 32.2 for 3.78x value didn’t help either. The only bright spot was Cameron Payne who I was least excited about. He scored 36 fantasy points good enough for 9.72x value.

The highest fantasy point scorers on the day were Giannis Antetokounmpo with 78.60, Joel Embid with 68.80 and Steph Curry with 61.30. The best values on the day were Lance Stephenson, 47.60 fantasy points and 12.20x value. DeAndre Bembry, 45.70 fantasy points and 11.71x value. And Damyean Dotson with 40 fantasy points and 9.75x value.

My Favorite NBA Free Squares for Today – October 26th

We have a medium sized 7 game Friday slate today. The biggest injury news is that James Harden will miss tonight’s game for the Rockets. The will surely create some “Free Square” candidates from this Rockets team tonight. There will be some others that we can build around them though and I’ll do my best to point the best ones out below.

💥 Chris Paul – HOU – PG

When one star player is going to be out we can pretty easily lock in the other for increased production. That is exactly the case tonight for Chris Paul without James Harden. Since the 2017 Season, when James Harden is off the floor Chris Paul has a +6.0% usage increase and scores +15.11 more fantasy points per game. He also averages a mind boggling 2.37 fantasy points per minute with Harden off the floor.

Tonight will be Paul’s first game back from suspension and he gets a juicy matchup vs the LA Clippers. Paul has played 2 games this season, and he’s scored 39.0 fantasy points vs the Pelicans and 51.40 fantasy points against the Lakers. The Rockets have a 111.25 team total this evening and I think Chris Paul is going to put on a show vs his former team.

💥 Eric Gordon – HOU – SG

Gordon will likely find himself in the starting lineup tonight because of the absense of James Harden. In the past Gordon has flurished while filling in for Harden as his usage rate has increased +4.8%. With a higher usage his fantasy points per game has gone up as well an average of +6.4 per game. Tonight vs the Clippers he should get all the run he can handle. Gordon usually plays as the 6th man for the Rockets but has been filling in for the Suspended Chris Paul the last few games as a starter. In those games he has played 32 and 39 minutes. He has scored 33 and 22.3 fantasy points in those games and had a usage rate of about 24% in both games. Look for the fantasy points and usage numbers to increase this evening.

💥 Gerald Green – HOU – SF

Brace yourselves, we have CHALK Gerald Green day starring us right in the face today. Priced at only 3,700 on Fanduel so he wont kill you if he fails to produce tonight. With James Harden out there should be many more opportunities for this Rockets team. He is Coming off the bench this year, but his minutes have been increasing, from 10 and 17 to start the year, to 21 and 27 in his last 2 games. He has not been scoring many fantasy points only 9.4 last game, 15.3 and 18.4 his last 3 games. You’ve got to believe that he’ll get up more shots tonight however without Harden on the floor.

I’m not sure if he’ll make his way in to the starting lineup, but, even if he doesn’t he should reach 25-30 minutes tonight. He averages a +2.5% usage increase and scores roughly 4 more fantasy points per game when James Harden is off the floor. Load up on Green as a cheap chalky punt tonight in your cash games tonight.

You can insert Carmelo Anthony somewhere with these 3 guys as well, and I would rank him below Gerald Green tonight.

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💥 Kelly Oubre – WAS – SF

We’re searching for some value tonight so we can fit in all the high priced studs on this slate. Oubre has been solid this year for the Wizards averaging just over 21 fantasy points per game. He’s only priced at 4,000 tonight and he’s played 39 and 29 minutes in his last 2 games. Tonight’s matchup vs the Kings in Sacramento is one of the best raw matchups on the slate. The Wizards have a team total of 120.75 and they should be able to reach that pretty easily vs the awful defense of the Kings. Lock him in for some value tonight and load up elsewhere.

💥 Marvin Bagley – SAC – PF

I have been rostering him a lot early this season and he’s been putting up solid numbers for a rookie. He’s had two monster games in his last 4, scoring 44.10 and 46.30 vs the Pelicans and the Nuggets. In both games he played 32 minutes and saw a usage rate near 20%. Tonight he’ll be matched up with the Wizards who are really struggling defensively this year vs big men. The Kings have a 115.75 implied team total and this game should be played at a breakneck pace tonight.

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💥 Fades and Pivots – Chris Paul —> Steph Curry

Chris Paul is the best play on the board tonight for sure. Without James Harden he should crush. However, Steph Curry, vs the Knicks at the Garden on a Friday night? At 1/4 of the Ownershi? Sign me up! Steph has scored over 41 fantasy points in every game this season. He’s maintaining a usage just over 30% and last game that usage rate spiked to a ridiculous 39%. He dropped 51 points on the Wizards and put in 11 of his 16 3pt attempts.

Toinght vs the Knicks there are obvious blowout risks, the Warriors will likely get up big in the 3rd quarter and take it easy the rest of the game. I still think Curry can put up 50+ tonight for all the reasons above. I believe he’s on a mission this season. Sadly I don’t have “data” to really back this up. However, he seems to be extra motivated this year to prove that he’s still THE MAN in Golden State. Get your popcorn ready 🍿 He’s about to put on a show in the Garden tonight.

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