Flynnie’s Forecheck – October 3, 2018 – OPENING NIGHT
We’re back!! After a long off-season of watching the greatest love story since Romeo and Juliet – obviously, I’m talking about Alex Ovechkin’s love affair with the Stanley Cup – it’s time to play some hockey. For those of you that are new to the DFS Army, my name is Rob Flynn. I’m an NHL DFS writer and coach inside the DFS Army. We have the best articles, coaching and tools in the industry. But let me tell you, the real money is made in the Slack chat that only our VIP’s have access to. That’s where we talk through a member’s lineup construction, thought process or just answer any DFS questions they may have. Every coach is very accessible and willing to share our own processes to help every member grow as a player.
I wrote an article describing some of my process and some tips to win. Check it out here. We also have a brand new Research station that is only available to VIP’s but here is the tutorial, to give you guys a taste of what’s coming this season. If you sign up to become a member, use promo code PUCK to give yourself 10% off for the life of your membership.
NHL DFS is very similar to DFS MLB. The volatility can be maddening, the floor of every player is ZERO and you need stacking in all contests. NHL DFS cash games you need at least two players that correlate on either the scoring line or power play, to hopefully grab the goal and an assist. In GPP’s you need to stack up the entire line and hope that line goes off for multiple goals.
Without any further ado let’s dig into the Wednesday 4-game slate.
I am primarily a cash/hybrid player but even that requires some stacking. So, I list my favorite and then I take the pieces from those stacks that fit my lineup construction. Unlike last season, I will put my stacks, D-men and goalies in order of my preference.
FORWARDS
Toronto PP1 – Matthews, Tavares, Marner – This will be the chalk and the whole DFS world knows it. One of the best offensive teams in the league added John Tavares, it could get ugly against MTL early. Toronto has the best PP match up on the slate and MTL averages over three penalties taken per game. These three also play with Kadri and Rielly as possible salary savers. My recommendation for cash would be pick either Matthews or Tavares and pair him with Rielly and get creative in GPPs.
WSH1 – Ovechkin, Kuznetsov and Oshie (I think, watch that when lineups come out – Tom Wilson will be suspended so this wing spot is open) This is also chalky. Everyone will be on Ovechkin if they don’t try to jam in Matthews and Tavares. Kuznetsov is one of my favorite plays on the entire slate, he has safer floor than Ovi but not quite the same ceiling. He also gets you cheaper exposure to Ovi on the top line and top PP unit.
SJ2 – Meier, Couture, Hertl. This line is significantly cheaper than the top line that is also in play. I think the scoring upside is there and they will see a lot of ice time with Karlsson who is currently projected to be on the second pairing and also see PP1 time with Couture. Couture/Karlsson is absolutely a cash safe tandem and you can throw in Hertl to get off the chalk even more for your hybrid/GPP lineups.
Honorable Mentions: VAN PP1 (Boeser or Baerschi with Edler), BOS 2 (more for salary saving one offs), CGY1, MTL 1 (just crazy enough to work, but I’m scared), ANA 1 (again, get off the chalk), BOS 1 (always in play but I think they’re too expensive for this slate)
$50k wasn’t even our biggest win of the MLB season
DEFENSE
I will save you the easy answers of Carlson and the SJ double D’s: Karlsson and Burns. My job is to find you guys some value plays. Those three are terrific plays but they will cost you a ton. They will be very tough to fit in especially if you try to fit in a couple of the Maple Leaf studs.
Edler: One of my favorite defense men to play last season. He isn’t flashy but he’s a machine. Over his last ten games last season he averaged over 5 BS+SOG per game – by far the highest on the slate. He is still cheap but not at the punt level – $5000 on FD, so that should lead to him going over looked. Our model also gives him a 25% chance at scoring a goal – #2 as far as defense goes only behind Mark Giordano. That’s not a metric to use as a be all end all but it certainly helps.
Petry: He was a cash game rock star for us last season. I’m not crazy about his upside for tournaments because his team is dreadful but if you’re looking to hedge the Andersen chalk, he’s your guy. It’s not even the worst play to play him with Andersen because Petry does so much of his work blocking shots. Playing a guy against your goalie is not something I advocate for very often but this is a rare exception.
Rielly: He will likely be chalky to help players get a piece of that high scoring TOR offense. He and Jake Gardiner are the two best offensive minded defense men in TOR and we will need salary savers to fit in some combo of TOR/SJ studs. Rielly is projected for 3.38 BSSOG which tops TOR defense men but it isn’t great. He is the most consistent and does have the upside to get you 20+ FD points.
Honorable Mentions: Giordano, Vaakinainen (too cheap and should see PP time), Niskanen, Hanifin, McAvoy
GOALIES
Andersen: Fredrik Andersen is going to be the runaway chalk here and for good reason. He is a -200 favorite, by far the largest favorite on this slate. He finished last season with a 0.911 save % and 2.76 GAA. It also helps him that Montreal is terrible and traded away their best player because he wanted to get away from that train wreck. If you are strictly playing cash, lock Freddy and move on. If you are looking at hybrid or GPP contests, I think there are a couple of spots to find a higher ceiling – albeit lower floor.
Jones: He is a -159 favorite, not quite to the -170 or so that I look to for safety but close enough for a 4 game slate. He is a very talented goalie and I think he will go over looked because everyone will want to play skaters from the Sharks. Anaheim is only projected for 2.2 goals scored – by far the lowest on the slate. Full disclosure – Martin Jones will most likely be the goalie on my main team.
Gibson: GPP ONLY Yes, I know he is going up against arguable the most talented team in the league and his team is awful. Not to mention they just lost Corey Perry for the foreseeable future. But hear me out, I might be losing it a little but his ceiling is massive. The Sharks are an offensive juggernaut and will make Gibby work. But if he has one of his stand-on-his-head nights he will rack up the points with saves and you’ll be all alone at the top of the leader board. This one is risky so use caution.
Honorable Mentions: Holtby (Too expensive and not as good as he played in the playoffs)
GOAL PREDICTION: Evgeny Kuznetsov
Remember guys, always confirm the starters after morning skate. I generally have this article out in the morning. If you guys have any questions reach out to me on Twitter at @rflynndfs or in Slack. Join the DFS Army today by using Promo Code PUCK to save 10% off your membership for life.
