Flynnie’s Forecheck – October 4, 2018
We’re back!! After a long off-season of watching the greatest love story since Romeo and Juliet – obviously, I’m talking about Alex Ovechkin’s love affair with the Stanley Cup – it’s time to play some hockey. For those of you that are new to the DFS Army, my name is Rob Flynn. I’m an NHL DFS writer and coach inside the DFS Army. We have the best articles, coaching and tools in the industry. But let me tell you, the real money is made in the Slack chat that only our VIP’s have access to. That’s where we talk through a member’s lineup construction, thought process or just answer any DFS questions they may have. Every coach is very accessible and willing to share our own processes to help every member grow as a player.
I wrote an article describing some of my process and some tips to win. Check it out here. We also have a brand new Research station that is only available to VIP’s but here is the tutorial, to give you guys a taste of what’s coming this season. If you sign up to become a member, use promo code PUCK to give yourself 10% off for the life of your membership.
NHL DFS is very similar to DFS MLB. The volatility can be maddening, the floor of every player is ZERO and you need stacking in all contests. NHL DFS cash games you need at least two players that correlate on either the scoring line or power play, to hopefully grab the goal and an assist. In GPP’s you need to stack up the entire line and hope that line goes off for multiple goals.
Without any further ado let’s dig into today’s 10-game slate.
I am primarily a cash/hybrid player but even that requires some stacking. So, I list my favorite and then I take the pieces from those stacks that fit my lineup construction. Unlike last season, I will put my stacks, D-men and goalies in order of my preference.
FORWARDS
NSH 1 – Forsberg, Johansen, Arvidsson: easily my favorite line on the slate. NYR doesn’t suppress any shots and Lundqvist is about 75 yrs old. There is upside for a massive night out of this line. If you want to mix it up a little drop Johansen for Josi or Subban. Or run the defense man with the whole line, just don’t forget Forsberg.
CAR 1 – Teravainen, Aho, Ferland: This is going to be a long night for the Islanders, I believe. This line will be very active in giving Greiss fits. Based on last years numbers, this is the biggest CF/60 vs CA/60 matchup on the night in favor of CAR getting pucks in the direction of the net. Zykov is a great value play to mix in with this line because he plays with them on the top PP unit.
VGK 1 – Smith, Karlsson, Marchessault: Yep, new year, same love of Vegas’ top line. These three are going to be chalky but it’s good chalk. Just eat it. Their second line is absolutely in play with Pacioretty and Stastny being added. But i’m going to stick with the line I know has chemistry.
Honorable Mentions: COL 1 (Nate at home), CBJ 1, DAL 1 CHI 2, BUF 1 (Boston is a mess)
$50k wasn’t even our biggest win of the MLB season
DEFENSE
Josi: Nashville is my favorite play on this slate. So start you stacks with among the safest cash plays in the league. He’s almost guaranteed to get you between 10-15 points but he also has a massive ceiling.
Werenski: One of the best defensemen in the league in terms of scoring. Now virtually the entire offense will flow through him while Seth Jones is injured. Detroit is nothing special on either end of the ice and there should be plenty of scoring to go around for the Blue Jackets.
Hamilton: Carolina is in a great spot tonight and Dougie will be quarterbacking the power play as well as playing 20+ minutes with the top 2 lines.
Honorable Mentions: Barrie, Gostisbehere, Ristolainen, Niskanen, Klingberg, Keith, Provorov
GOALIES
This slate is not very good for cash goalies tonight.
Hutton: This is weird that he is my top goalie on the night. Boston put up a dud last night against the defending champs now have to travel to Buffalo where they have had good success lately. But Hutton is making his Sabre debut. And if you remember is was the top goalie in the league for a stretch last season when Jake Allen was struggling. Hutton also tops our projection list. This isn’t the safest option but he does have a relatively safe floor and very high ceiling.
Bishop: Likely the chalk goalie on the night being a -183 favorite going against the lowest ITT on the slate in ARI. Bishop is safe in that he will get a lot of ownership and should get the win. But I would keep him to cash only because the Stars suppress shots well and ARI doesn’t shoot very much so his ceiling isn’t high enough for GPPs, in my opinion.
Fleury: MAF is right behind Bishop in money line at -162. He is a solid goaltender and should get a win against Philly. Our model is not as high on him as I was expecting, so use caution.
Honorable Mentions: Raanta (favorite GPP goalie tonight), Rinne, Varlamov, Hellebuyck
GOAL PREDICTION: Jack Eichel
Remember guys, always confirm the starters after morning skate. I generally have this article out in the morning. If you guys have any questions reach out to me on Twitter at @rflynndfs or in Slack. Join the DFS Army today by using Promo Code PUCK to save 10% off your membership for life.
