Hi there! I’m Glen but I go by Blande and you can find me on twitter as @DfsBlande . I’m a contributor and coach over here at the DFS Army. If you are not yet a member, use the link here and promo code “BLANDE” to get 10% off your subscription. This article is likely to get “locked up” for our VIPs at some point.
It’s Halloween and it won’t be a proper one without slate upending breaking news. With already had a lot of those coming out of Minnesota, and we expect more as we get closer to lock. A lot of value has popped up on the slate, with min-priced starters blowing open the entire slate. There is hardly any reason to take too many chances on bench players tonight, unless for those in excellent spots. The format today focuses on guards and forwards, with cash plays highlighted. The majority of plays are best suited for hybrid/GPP lineups. Pricing is FD/DK.
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Guards
Derrick Rose (5500/4900) – CASH/CORE: Rose once again finds himself on this list and for good reason. Jeff Teague and Jimmy Butler are out, and Andrew Wiggins is a game-time decision. A lot of minutes have opened up in this game, and you can expect Rose to get all he can handle of the bench. Add to this the fact that Rose is taking more shots than just about anyone else on the Timberwolves, and you have all the ingredients for an explosive game from him. Oh! Rose is averaging 1.39 DK FPM with Teague and Butler out if you needed any more convincing. He’ll be uber chalk on both sites, making him an excellent cash play. Pivoting off him in GPPs could be smart, but I’ll still have a few shares of him even in GPPs.
Rajon Rondo (5800/5700) – CORE: In three games last season against the Mavs, Rondo averaged 42 DK FP in just over 27 MPG. In fact, in the last two games where he played 30 and 32 minutes, he scored 38.8 and 55.8 FDPs respectively. There’s just something in this matchup Rondo loves and coming off the bench allows him to dominate the ball handling in the second unit. This is an excellent spot for Rondo and one in which he should easily exceed value. Given the other options on the slate, he will be low-owned making him an excellent GPP play.
Monte Morris (4600/4300): Monte Morris is high on the DFS Army Research Station Who’s Hot Meter, averaging 7.42 FPs in his last three games. This translates to 29.4 FD FPPG in just over 26 MPG. In a matchup against a Bulls team that appears anemic to guard defense, Monte Morris stands to benefit. Things could get even better for him if this game gets out of hand. That said, Morris is getting enough minutes to meet and even exceed value at his current price on both sites. He’s a nice GPP play if paying down at SG.
Marco Belinelli (3800/4000): Belinelli has been solid without being special so far this season, putting up 17.4 DK FPs in 21.3 MPG this season. Today he faces one of the worst defenses in the league. The RS has Belinelli with a projected ceiling of 27.3 DK FPs. He is due for a ceiling type of game, and tonight presents the perfect opportunity for him to get it. This is a strictly GPP play based on matchup and minutes potential, and it is better on FD with the “drop one” format.
Ryan Arcidiacono (3700/3600): I’m not a fan of this matchup, but since Will Barton went down, Arcidiacono is averaging 27 MPG. He is just too cheap on both sites. Now with all the value opening up on the slate today, there is no reason to go here tonight, but if you are feeling really contrarian and looking for a basically zero-owned player who will get close to 30 minutes for GPP MME, Arcidiacono is your guy.
Forwards
Julius Randle (6600/6500): Randle makes for a solid Core play in all formats tonight IF Anthony Davis is out. Whether we get news on AD before lock is an open question. If we get news AD is out, then Randle will see run off the bench against a Warriors team that likes to play small. IF AD plays, Randle will still get some minutes, but his upside becomes capped and he’ll be just too expensive to roster. Watch for news on this one.
Domantas Sabonis (5300/5800): Sabonis has a nice matchup against the Knicks. This season, he is averaging 29.5 DK FPPG in 22.5 mins. The spot against the Knicks is one he can exploit both at power forward and as backup center. The only concern is his minutes situation, but he has shown to be capable of performing in limited minutes. He is a GPP type play, with just enough of a ceiling for hybrid lineups. Sabonis is a much better play on FD, where he is relatively cheaper. On DK, a pivot off him is the next guy on this list.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (6000/5200): RHJ finally crossed the 25-minute barrier in his last game back. He is slowly working himself back into form after recovering from hip injury. The RS currently has him projected for 27 minutes tonight in a good matchup against the Lions. This is the type of spot to target RHJ before he becomes really popular. FD has already started raising his price in anticipation of him getting back his regular workload, but DK is lagging a behind. RHJ is a fantastic GPP play on DK, with a 40+ upside in this matchup.
Those are your Sixth men for today. Good luck out there today! Make sure to join the DFS Army and get access to our content, tools, coaches, and community that shortens your growth curve for NBA DFS. And for VIP Members, make sure to check Bear’s droppings! There’s an intriguing 6th Man play in them which I did not list on here.
