Welcome everyone, to this weeks edition of Draw Plays!! I’m your host DabbingPuggle, bringing you this weeks insights on the best WR/CB match-ups for your GPP’s. A quick note before we dive in. I like to have fun and make money; I plan on doing both things every Sunday for the next few months. If you like fun, jump in my room #puggle-nfl on Sunday morning 10-1. If you like making money, be sure to read all the articles our NFL staff has for you each week. If you don’t like either, take a hike. Get it? Hut Hut Hike… let’s do this Army!!

Tier 1 Draw Plays

Adam Thielen Vs. Parry Nickerson 

Buster Skrine is out again with injury but I’m still going to pick on the Jets nickel in week 7. It also makes it really easy that Adam Thielen is just doing amazing things this season out of the slot. Minnesota should consider putting this guy on billboards with “We Are All Witnesses” plastered across 35W. He’s too cheap on FD even as the second highest priced receiver and worth paying up for on DK as well. It doesn’t even really matter who is covering him anymore because his volume and production just seems to be locked in weekly. If you’ve been paying attention, the slot corner is is a place I like to attack often in today’s NFL as there are very few really solid defenders at the position. Nickerson is a 6th round rookie grading out as a bottom three corner across all the games this week. It’s a no-brainer play for me.

 Albert Wilson Vs. Teez Tabor

Albert Wilson. Last week you may have thought I was crazy… I didn’t imagine a performance like that out of him, but it made sense and you were rewarded for taking a shot with me. This week we get to see if it was a fluke or if he’s about to blossom into the go-to guy for Brock Osweiler. Teez Tabor is a 2nd round talent sophomore with limited snaps under his belt. He’s been battling through a groin issue leading up to his 3rd start this season and is in a prime spot for Miami to target. Wilson is still way too cheap on both sites 5.6K on FanDuel and 4K on DraftKings for a guy who has double digit fantasy points in 3/6 games and has become more involved in the offense the last 3 weeks. He won’t be 1% again after his breakout last week but is still in a prime spot to easily pay off for owners in week 7.

 

Jarvis Landry Vs. MJ Stewart

Jarvis Landry has struggled the last few weeks and has people scratching their heads at the volume receiver. This is going to cause his to be under-owned even in an outstanding spot against Stewart. Landry has still recorded 29 targets the last 3 weeks (10-10-9) so the opportunity is there. On the other side Stewart is really having a tough year. This season he boasts a 24% target rate (top 5 of week 7 corners) and an 88% opposing catch rate (top 3). DraftKings bumped his price up as they do a very good job of pricing to the match-up but on FanDuel he’s dropped yet again down to 6.5K and it will be really hard for me not to be overexposed in this spot.

Damion Ratley Vs. Carlton Davis

Damion who? The junior college transfer for the Aggies was a late round pick this year and stood out in week 6. Yet, nobody is talking about him in week 7. With Higgins on the shelf and Antonio Callaway doing everything he can to get booed by the dog-pound, we can turn here. Ratley turned 8 targets into 6 catches for 82 yards last week and is essentially free to us on both sites. Ryan Smith is allowing a 75% opposing catch rate and while he’s not the weakest defender on for Tampa Bay, it’s not saying much. They’ve allowed the 2nd most yards in the league next to Kansas City who have yet to see their bye week. It’s a speculation play folks, I give you one each week. If you’re going to pay up for Thielen and Gurley this week, Damion Ratley is a guy who can help you afford them both and will be given an opportunity to produce.

Tier 2 Draw Plays

John Brown Vs. Ken Crawley

John Brown went from 14 targets to 3 from weeks 5-6. That’s a massive drop and he’s priced right in the middle on both sites. It’ll be interesting to see ownership here after back to back single digit fantasy point performances from the speedster. The Saints secondary has been getting a ton of work this season for two reasons. 1. They’ve been pretty bad. 2. The offense has been such a machine that teams are forced to throw with them to keep up. While Baltimore has a solid defense, they are going to need points on Sunday and I think John Brown is the receiver who benefits most. Crawley is fast, but he’s still getting beat this season to an 82% opposing catch rate because he cannot stick in coverage against downfield receivers. Guess what John Brown does well? I don’t see a world where Brown doesn’t get at least 3-4 really good shots at the big play this week.

 

Marquise Goodwin Vs. Marcus Peters

He finally looks healthy while Peters looks um, better? At least he has not looked good this season aside from last week against the Broncos. Marcus Peters is one of my favorite players in the league but has not been himself this season with his 75% opposing catch rate (I like this metric, it matters). While he finally seems healthy after boasting three straight games of full snaps, he is still seeing an uptick in targets. We could attribute this to teams needing to throw against the Rams and it’s probably the most reasonable explanation, but that doesn’t mean it’s not a good place to go. The Niners need offense and they found it last week with a big game from Goodwin who looked like the guy we hoped he’d be coming into the season. They’re going to have to replicate that again if they have any shot of competing against Rams. It’s either him or Brown this week for me, I won’t be rostering both on the same team, but I won’t be shy about taking shots on either of them.

 

Michael Thomas Vs. Brandon Carr

Brandon Carr has been really good this year. I’m not even going to rifle off stats here because he’s been scary good. However, AJ Green did torch the guy on Thursday night football a few weeks ago and Michael Thomas is the best receiver in this league. People are going to pay for Thielen in this price point and rightfully so, he has a better match-up. Does anyone really recognize how good Thomas has been this year though? 94% catch-rate. HE HAS CAUGHT 94% of HIS TARGETS. That’s just unfair. I don’t care how good Carr is, he can get beat and he will be busy on Sunday. Thomas is just way too good and match-up proof at this point. You want to go Thielen instead, I don’t blame you one bit. If you’re not rostering Thomas anywhere, you’re doing DFS wrong.

Puggle Thoughts

In lieu of an 8th receiver I am going to leave you with something to think about as you build your lineups. It’s okay to take risks and to break rules. So often we establish these rules for ourselves like “Don’t play guys against Jacksonville” or “Don’t play road receivers in low scoring games.” I’m guilty of it too sometimes, but breaking away from certain rules is the difference between a min-cash and top 10 finish in a gpp. To win you need to have a good balance of a solid core in good spots, but you also need a couple of guys that nobody else has. I’m not saying play both Hopkins and Fuller V this week. I’m saying it’s okay to use a guy in a “bad” match-up if the work is there and it makes sense. You will never win with a team that is only comprised of the best plays of the week. I save this talk for coaching, but it seems as if people just want the plays and then move on. That’s not how this works. The risk takers and the hard workers are the most successful players. Just make sure you’re taking calculated risks, not silly ones. (Unless it’s the milly maker, then just burn some paper and get nuts).

 

Value Town

I am quantifying value on each site by price where on FanDuel I am looking for players priced below 6K and DraftKings priced below 5k. These are the guys in GPP’s that are those targeted punts that we need to beat large fields and walk away with the trophy.

Think about this for a moment, you look at the teams at the top and say to yourself, “How in the world did this guy think rostering player X was a good idea?” Well, these are the guys who allow you to get all the heavy hitters in the same lineup. You want a swag bag, you want the big bucks, these are the guys in week 7 I think could help you get there.

FanDuel                                                    DraftKings

1. Keke Coutee 5.6K                                                                1 . Keelan Cole 4.6K

2. Taylor Gabriel 5.9K                                                            2.  Cole Beasley 3.9K

3.Willie Snead 5.4K                                                                3.  Chris Godwin 4.6K

4. Antonio Callaway 4.8K                                                      4.  Marvin Jones 4.9K

5. DJ Moore 4.9K                                                                            5.  Chester Rogers 4.7K

 

Curtsies vs Waist-Benders

Ok, well those are the same thing.  I just wanted to say thanks.  Guys, I’m excited to be a part of DFS Army, and I’m thankful you guys have both welcomed me and read my piece.  As stated, I’ll be in my room (#puggle-nfl) from 10-1 Sunday.  I look forward to chatting with all of you as we approach lock in what promises to be both an entertaining and fruitful NFL season.  If you haven’t yet, head back into the content areas and read the next VIP article….I bet it’s there now.  See the NFL Pages for even more content!